Penguins vs Sabres Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Guentzel Guides Penguins to Much-Needed Victory

The Penguins and Sabres are two teams with playoff expectations that are on the outside looking in. 

American Thanksgiving has been a decent benchmark over the past several years, and both Pittsburgh and Buffalo are a few points shy of the final playoff spot in the competitive Eastern Conference.

Pittsburgh has lost three of its last four games, including a 1-0 shutout loss at home on Wednesday night. Buffalo is in the same boat with a 1-3-1 record in its last five games.

Which team will get the all-important two points tonight? Read on as we break down the NHL odds in our free NHL picks for Penguins vs. Sabres on Friday, November 24.

Penguins vs Sabres odds

Penguins vs Sabres predictions

The Penguins have had some ups and downs early in the season. They rattled off five straight wins prior to their poor 1-3-0 stretch.

Scoring goals has been the issue for the Penguins as of late. They got shut out by Jonathan Quick and the Rangers on Wednesday and have a total of seven goals in their last four games.

Offseason acquisition Erik Karlsson was supposed to boost the Penguins offense. Instead, the Pens have struggled, even on the power play. 

"These guys, they care a lot. They have an awful lot of pride," Pittsburgh coach Mike Sullivan said about Sidney Crosby & Co. on the top power-play unit. "When it doesn't go their way, they put a lot of pressure on themselves to make it work. I think that was the case (Wednesday). I think we were forcing it.”

They're on a 1-for-15 stretch over the last eight games. The good news is that one goal came against this Buffalo team. The Penguins' 4-0 win on Nov. 11 sent the Sabres into their 1-3-1 spiral.

Pittsburgh already took down the Sabres once should be able to do it again. The Penguins have the better underlying numbers with the league's eighth-best xGF% (53.13%), while Buffalo is just below 50%.

Home ice also hasn't been particularly advantageous for Buffalo. The Sabres are 4-5-0 at home (4-4-2 on the road), and the Penguins are 5-3-0 on the road (4-6-0 at home).

The Penguins are the better team, and Buffalo is without breakout star Tage Thompson. Pittsburgh is in the middle of a tough stretch, but this is a chance for them to get two points on the road.

My best bet: Penguins moneyline (-114 at FanDuel)

Penguins vs Sabres same-game parlay

Penguins moneyline

Jake Guentzel 4+ shots on goal

Jake Guentzel anytime goal

+473 at FanDuel

Jake Guentzel has been a man on a mission over the last few games. The top-line winger has been creating shot attempts, shots on goal, and some pretty good scoring chances as well. 

Over the last two games, Guentzel has been a one-man shooting gallery. He's had 11 shots on goal (22 shot attempts) with six against the Rangers and five against Vegas. 

He generated 17 scoring chances (six high-danger chances) and 1.48 expected goals for in those two contests, but had just an assist to show for it.

Guentzel may feel the need to shoot the puck more now with Bryan Rust battling an injury and Rickard Rakell out. Rust is day-to-day and questionable for Friday night’s game while Rakell is out “longer term” for the Penguins. 

Guentzel has had no issue stepping up without them and that should continue tonight.

If it’s going to be a Guentzel game, it’s best to take his shots on goal as well as his goal prop. He’s been knocking on the door and he’ll get through sooner than later.

Of course, we’ll parlay those Guentzel props with our best bet of the Penguins moneyline to get a near 5/1 payout.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Penguins vs Sabres moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Penguins have received the majority of the handle and tickets, and the line has moved accordingly. 

Pittsburgh opened as +100 underdogs but are now as high as -120 favorites in Buffalo. The Sabres can now be found at +100 at DraftKings after opening at -120.

The total opened at 6.5 with the Over heavily favored and it's stayed that way across the board. The best odds you can get for Over 6.5 is -128 at FanDuel, with Under 6.5 (+112) at Kambi books.

I would take the Under 6.5 for the total, especially at these odds. The Sabres have scored the fifth-fewest goals per game (2.84) with Pittsburgh allowing the sixth-fewest (2.61). Both teams have also trended heavily towards the Under this season. 

Adding Under 6.5 to our same-game parlay would be a good contrarian leg if you’re looking for longer odds.

Penguins vs Sabres betting trend to know

The Penguins are 4-1 in their last five road games. Find more NHL betting trends for Penguins vs. Sabres.

Penguins vs Sabres game info

Penguins vs Sabres latest injuries

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