We have a handful of games on our first slate of the week and there are plenty of prime matchups to attack.
Find out why my NHL player props see the most value in backing a trifecta of volume shooters on Monday, November 11.
NHL prop picks and best bets for November 11
Johnston Over 2.5 SOG (-120 at FanDuel)
Lehkonen Over 2.5 SOG (-125 at DraftKings)
Fiala Over 2.5 SOG (-140 at FanDuel)
Picks made on 11-11 at 10:30 a.m. ET.
Today’s NHL prop picks and best bets
Prop bet #1: Wyatt Johnston Over 2.5 shots on goal
Dallas Stars forward Wyatt Johnston has extraordinarily drastic home/road splits — only much different from most top players. Skating lower down the lineup, and avoiding tough matchups, has resulted in Johnston performing much better on the road than at home.
Johnston is averaging just 1.3 shots and has gone Under in each of his seven home games this season.
On the flip side, Johnston has averaged 3.5 shots on 6.5 attempts on the road and cleared 2.5 shots in five of six tries. His only failure was the ‘road’ game in Finland.
These kinds of splits are nothing new for Johnston. He’s averaged 3.8 shots per game and managed a 77% hit rate over his last 30 road dates. His hit rate at home is 30% over the same time frame (30 games) and he’s failed to record three shots in 10 straight.
Johnston is certainly primed to continue his road success against the Pittsburgh Penguins. He is skating on a line with Jamie Benn and Logan Stankoven, both of whom he has very efficient shot rates alongside. The Penguins are a dream matchup as well, ranking first in 5v5 pace yet 30th in 5v5 shot suppression.
Prop bet #2: Artturi Lehkonen Over 2.5 shots on goal
The Colorado Avalanche are decimated by injuries and desperate for all the help they can get. As such, they’ve given Artturi Lehkonen a full workload and then some since he returned to the lineup.
Lehkonen’s logged at least 22 minutes in all three games this season. He’s made the most of his minutes in terms of generating volume, piling up 11 shots on 25 attempts.
He's managed those numbers in tough shooting matchups, too. The Seattle Kraken play a low-event brand of hockey, the Carolina Hurricanes are the best shot suppression team in the NHL, and the Winnipeg Jets are 14-1. For Lehkonen to step right into the lineup and average more than eight attempts per game in three less-than-ideal matchups is nothing short of impressive.
Lehkonen has a strong chance of piling up the shots again Monday night. The Nashville Predators rank eighth in 5v5 pace this season and play a high-event brand of hockey. They also sit 24th in 5v5 shot suppression and spend nearly six minutes short-handed per game.
Logging insane minutes on the top line and power play, Lehkonen will be one of the biggest beneficiaries.
Prop bet #3: Kevin Fiala Over 2.5 shots on goal
Los Angeles Kings winger Kevin Fiala also benefits from avoiding the opposing team’s best matchup lines when playing on the road. He’s averaged 2.0 shots on 4.7 attempts in home games this season, clearing 2.5 shots just once in six tries.
He’s had Johnston-like success on the road, though, ramping things up to a completely different level away from Los Angeles. Fiala is averaging 3.7 shots per away game and has gone over his shooting line in seven of nine.
The two failures came in the season opener against Buffalo and a very solid Vegas team that owns a perfect 8-0-0 record on home soil.
The Calgary Flames are an advantageous matchup I don’t see Fiala having too much trouble with. They rank seventh in 5v5 pace, providing a big pace-up spot for the 27th-ranked Kings. They are also 25th in 5v5 shot suppression and 26th in penalty-killing situations.
Further to all that, the Flames rank bottom-10 in limiting shots against opposing wingers.
NHL odds today
Here are the full NHL odds for all of today’s matchups.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
