Predators vs Capitals Picks and Predictions: Preds Pounce on Wounded Foes

The break is over for the Nashville Predators and Washington Capitals as both clubs will kick off their post-Christmas season in the nation’s capital tonight. Washington was a .500 team in December while the Predators entered the break on a seven-game winning streak.

Can the Predators keep rolling without their captain? Can Washington pick up two points despite some serious roster shuffling? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Predators vs. Capitals on Wednesday, December 29.

Predators vs Capitals odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

The Capitals have moved from -145 to -155 on the moneyline with a total sitting at 6 and leaning to the Under. These two teams have not met since the 2019-20 season.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Predators vs Capitals predictions

• Prediction: Predators ML (+135)
• Prediction: Over 6 (+100)
• Best bet: Predators ML (+135)

Predictions made on 12/29/2021 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Predators vs Capitals game info

• Location: Capital One Arena, Washington, DC
• Date: Wednesday, December 29, 2021
• Puck drop: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: BS South

Predators vs Capitals betting preview

Injuries

Predators: Roman Josi D (Questionable), Colton Scissons F (Questionable), Matt Duchene F (Out).

Capitals: Tom Wilson F (Probable), Evgeny Kuznetsov F (Probable), Nicklas Backstrom F (Probable), TJ Oshie F (Questionable), Justin Schultz D (Questionable), Nick Jensen D (Questionable), Daniel Sprong F (Questionable), Vitek Vanecek G (Questionable).

Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Predators vs Capitals head-to-head record (since 2017)

Predators: 8-0 SU, 41 goals for.
Capitals: 0-8 SU, 23 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Over is 7-2 in Capitals’ last nine home games. Find more NHL betting trends for Predators vs. Capitals.

Predators vs Capitals picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Moneyline/Puck line analysis

Over half the Washington Capitals starting lineup has entered the league’s COVID protocols already this season but some key players should be back in the lineup as Tom Wilson, Evgeny Kuznetsov and Nicklas Backstrom all returned to practice on Monday and are on track to play Wednesday. There are still a lot of Capitals on the COVID list, including TJ Oshie and Justin Schultz, but getting three of the team’s top-six forwards back in Wilson, Kuznetsov and Backstrom and starting their top-four centers for the first this season will be big for Washington.

All they’ll have to do is take down a Nashville team that won seven straight games before the break, outscoring their opponents 25 to 14. However, Nashville will more than likely be without captain and leading scorer Roman Josi while Matt Duchene, who sits third on the team in points, is also questionable. But ultimately, like all games coming out of the break, this will come down to price, and at -155 on the ML for the home team, we’re looking elsewhere.

The Predators have gone 7-1 SU in the month of December and their 2.00 goals allowed per game is the third-best mark in the league. Goaltender Juuse Saros has won five straight starts and has given up more than two goals just once in his last eight starts, which includes a pair of shutouts. He isn’t in the Top 10 in goals saved above expected, which is more of a compliment to his team, as the Predators are in the Top 10 in high-danger and medium-danger shots allowed.

The Nashville power play has also been a big surprise this season as the unit sits seventh in the league in success rate at 25.5% and had four goals in its two games before the break. 

Ever since the Capitals’ epic three-goal third-period collapse to the Panthers on November 30, they have gone 4-5 SU with two of those wins coming in extra time. Goaltending has been an issue, as the Caps have allowed 3.11 goals per game since November 30 and Wednesday’s probable starter, Ilya Samsonov, has given up five goals in two of his last five starts owning a 3.38 GAA with a .896 SV% over that stretch. Vitek Vanecek is on the COVID list, so Samsonov will be the man Wednesday.

With so many possible absences on the wings and Alexander Alexeyev (rookie with zero NHL games) and Matt Irwin (team’s No. 8 defenseman) making up the third defense pairing, Washington will have to rely on their top lines. These could be problematic Wednesday, as Backstrom, Kuznetsov and Wilson have all been out of action for two weeks or more and giving heavy minutes to them might not be an option. If Washington has to play from behind, the Predators are not a fun team to chase points against, as they are 12-0 SU when leading after the first period.

Much like some of the other post-Christmas games we’ve previewed and wagered on, we have no problems taking the better defensive team at plus money in what is still an ever-evolving NHL betting landscape thanks to COVID.  

Prediction: Predators ML (+135)

Over/Under analysis

The Predators have been a neutral team in terms of totals this season, with a 15-15 O/U mark. They were 5-5 O/U before the break and likely starter, Saros, is 9-15 O/U on the season and in 19 of his 24 starts he’s allowed two or fewer goals. 

However, the Capitals have scored more 5-on-5 goals than any team in hockey and should get their power play back up and running with the additions of Kuznetsov and Backstrom. Washington was 1 for 21 with the man advantage over its last nine games and adding their top centermen should help correct that. Kuznetzov practiced on the top line with Alex Ovechkin and Tom Wilson yesterday while Backstrom centered Conor Sheary and Aliaksei Protas on the second line.

Missing Josi and Duchene will likely hurt the Predators’ power play as the two have combined for nine power-play goals and 21 PP points, but Mattias Ekholm is capable of quarterbacking the PP while getting Ryan Johansen and Mikael Granlund is also a boost. If the Capitals show fatigue and inexperience and start taking penalties, this Nashville PP will burn them, as it’s a Top-7 unit and has been consistent all season long. Getting some Nashville power-play goals will be key, as the Preds aren’t one of the better 5-on-5 scoring teams in hockey.

Samsonov could certainly help with the Predators’ even-strength struggles. Washington has seen some inconsistent play in net this season, as even with Samsonov’s 11-2-2 record, he still owns 2.64 GAA and a .910 SV% — both rank outside the Top 20. The Russian netminder will also have a makeshift defensive corps in front of him as Justin Schutz, Nick Jensen, Dennis Cholowski and Martin Fehervary are likely out.

If yesterday’s goal-fest was any indication of what’s going to happen on the restart, we should expect some scoring. Of course, it was a small sample size, but 33 goals were scored across three games yesterday that featured three teams who rank 28th or worse in goals per game. 

Prediction: Over 6 (+100)

Best bet

It’s no surprise our best bet is with one of the best pre-Christmas teams in the Predators at +135. They may not have their captain, Josi, who eats big minutes, but this is a deep blueline and their COVID effects are less impactful than that of the Capitals in terms of quantity. 

Washington has been a .500 team over the last month. It has struggled closing out games, with four losses when leading after two periods, while the Predators tied for the second-best point percentage (.875%) in December over eight games. Nashville is one of the best defensive teams at even strength, which is where the Caps make their living.

Pick: Predators ML (+135)

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