Two of the Western Conference's best will meet in Sin City Tuesday night as the Vegas Golden Knights — regulation losers just once in their last nine games — host the Nashville Predators who will be looking to get back into their pre-break form after going 1-2 SU following the layoff.
Can the Knights maintain their top spot in the Pacific Division while riding backup goalie Laurent Brossoit? Can the Preds recapture the secret of their pre-break seven-game winning streak? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for the Predators vs. Golden Knights on January 4.
Predators vs Golden Knights odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Golden Knights opened at -150 on the moneyline but have since been bet to -115, as the market is moving in favor of the Predators. The total sits at 6 and leans to the Under. Vegas won the last meeting on November 24, 5-2, as +108 road underdogs and with a closing total of 5.5.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Predators vs Golden Knights predictions
Predictions made on 1/4/2022 at 12:05 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Predators vs Golden Knights game info
• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, NV
• Date: Tuesday, January 4, 2022
• Puck drop: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ATTSN-RM, BSSO
Predators vs Golden Knights betting preview
Injuries
Predators: Dante Fabro D (Out).
Golden Knights: Robin Lehner G (Doubtful), Mark Stone F (Doubtful), Nick Hague D (Out), Max Pacioretty F (Out), Alec Martinez D (Out).
Find our latest NHL injury reports.
Predators vs Golden Knights head-to-head record (since 2018)
Predators: 4-5 SU, 18 goals for.
Golden Knights: 5-4 SU, 24 goals for.
Betting trend to know
Over is 5-1 in Vegas' last six home games. Find more NHL betting trends for Predators vs. Golden Knights.
Predators vs Golden Knights picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Moneyline/Puck line analysis
The Golden Knights have done just fine of late, with some absences include starting goalie Robin Lehner. The No. 1 tender is expected to miss tonight’s matchup with the Predators but that shouldn’t deter bettors from jumping on the home side, even if it means opposing the market.
The Knights opened at -150 on the moneyline but with Lehner doubtful and captain Mark Stone likely to miss his fourth straight game, this line has swung all the way to Vegas -115. However, Peter DeBoer’s squad has dealt with absences in the lineup all season and has taken five of a possible six points since the restart without both players.
Stone’s production has been replicated by fill-in Mattias Janmark, who has four goals since the restart in an expanded role. Backup Laurent Brossoit has also done enough to go 2-0-1 since Christmas, and although his peripherals aren’t great (they're similar to Lehner’s), this is a team that's relying on the league’s No. 3 offense since November, at 3.85 goals per game.
In the previous meeting, back on November 24, the Knights finished with five goals, one on the power play, and over four expected goals. Vegas will be missing four important pieces from that game tonight, but with 13 goals scored vs. three teams that rank in the Top 14 in goals against per game since returning to the ice, this team is not struggling offensively with the absences.
Nashville allows 2.67 goals per game (9th) but isn’t as difficult to beat on the road with a 3.11 GAA mark this year. Nashville, despite its 20-11-2 record on the season, has a negative goal differential on the road. Likely starter Juuse Saros has 1.87 GAA at home this season, but a 2.87 GAA on the road to go along with a 6-5 SU record. Saros is coming off a stellar 37-save performance against Chicago two days ago, but the Blackhawks are one of the worst offenses in the league.
The Predators are back to full health with captain Roman Josi drawing back in, but we’re thinking the market has overreacted slightly here, and getting the Knights, who have dealt with injuries all season, at a near-pick ‘em is a great number. The Predators have just five regulation wins in their last 13 road games and will be in tough against an offense that has shown it can score against good goaltending/defensive teams of late.
Prediction: Golden Knights ML (-115)
Over/Under analysis
The Golden Knights have been one of the better Over teams in hockey this season. They have a Top-10 offense that is “complemented” with a 3.06 goals-per-game mark and a Bottom-10 penalty kill. No team has scored more 5-on-5 goals this season than Vegas, while they've also given up the same amount of even-strength goals as Montreal on the season. Only the Flyers have a higher expected goals against at 5-on-5 than Vegas. This is due to them giving up the most high-danger shots in the league.
Although Brossoit has slightly better numbers than Lehner, the Over is 6-2 in his last eight games, as he owns a sub-.900 SV% over that stretch. He has just 1.00 goals saved above expected over his 14 games this year.
The Knights scored four against Sarros in the last meeting on 34 total shots. The Finnish goalie is making a case for the Vezina of late but his play on the road has not been nearly as consistent. Saros has a 2.77 GAA on the road this year and has had his worst games away from Tennessee — mostly notably six goals against in Winnipeg, five goals against in Montreal and more recently a four-goal outing in Washington last week. Yes, these bad outings may skew his overall road splits, but even his .911 road save percentage is league-average.
The Predators have hit the Over in all three games coming out of the break and are back to full strength offensively with defenseman Roman Josi (team leader in points) and Matt Duchene (No. 2 in team points) back in the lineup. Since December, this is a Top-10 offense (3.36 goals per game) with the league’s No. 6 power play. Their 51.7% xgoal mark is also one of the worst marks of the Top-10 teams in the league and favors two-way scoring.
With the Golden Knights taking and surrendering the most high-danger shots in the league, we should see scoring on both sides of the aisle Tuesday night. Brossoit has been average in his replacement of Lehner, while Sarros’ road struggles could continue against an offense that hasn’t lost its scoring touch over the layover.
The last meeting saw a total of 6.8 xgoals, and that match included Lehner and the defensive-minded Stone in the lineup. Vegas averages 6.58 total goals per game at home on the season, while the Predators average a little over 6.00 themselves on the road.
Prediction: Over 6 (+100)
Best bet
This total should be priced closer to -110 for the Over 6 and we think that’s the way the price will move as we get closer to puck drop. Out of the break, Vegas has shown it can still score against solid defensive teams with great goaltending despite missing Stone and Pacioretty, while the Predators have seen a total of 22 total goals in their three games following Christmas.
Overs have been hitting at 64 percent over the last seven days, as scoring has been up around the league since Christmas. We like the Knights to take this one and think the market has overreacted to news (Lehner and Stone out) that was predictable when the lines opened. However, we can’t pass up an even-money Over 6 with these two teams, who have come out of the break hot offensively.
Pick: Over 6 (+100)
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