Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Dubois Gets It Done

Prop bet #1: Backing Blackwell

The Seattle Kraken have impact centers Yanni Gourde (suspension) and Matty Beniers (upper body) out of the lineup, and top defenseman Vince Dunn has missed the past four games and remains day-to-day with an undisclosed injury. Simply put, the Chicago Blackhawks won’t face the best version of the Kraken on Wednesday.

Chicago forward Colin Blackwell has paced the team in shots (31) and attempts (56) through 11 January games, and Seattle has been more susceptible to opposing shots out of the holiday break. The Kraken limited opponents to just 28.5 shots and 56.86 attempts per 60 minutes through the first 35 games of the season, but they’ve regressed to 31.69 and 66.38 marks through their past 11 contests. For further context, Seattle went from allowing the sixth-fewest shots per 60 to allowing the ninth most.

I have Blackwell projected for 2.77 shots on Wednesday, and he’s cleared this 1.5-shot total in nine of the noted 11 January games. As a result, these Colin Blackwell odds are showing value based on the matchup, his form, and my numbers.

Colin Blackwell prop: Over 1.5 shots (-110 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: Mr. McCann can

With the noted injuries up the middle for the Kraken, Jared McCann has slotted in atop the depth chart on the No. 1 line and top power-play unit. He’s also on a mini-heater with at least one point in five of his past six games while piling up four goals and four assists.

The uptick in offensive production is sustainable, too. Everything went right for McCann last year and replicating his 1.86 goals and 3.25 points per 60 minutes was never a reasonable expectation. The pendulum swung too far to start this season, though, and the veteran forward’s 2.41 points per 60 are still below his achievable 2.73 mark across 117 games between 2020-21 and 2021-22.

This is a solid matchup for him to continue his scoring surge, too. The Blackhawks ranked second-last in Corsi For percentage (43.9%) and have surrendered the fourth-most goals per 60 (3.06) at five-on-five, and they have a 26th-ranked 76.8 penalty-kill percentage while taking the 10th-most minor penalties at 5-on-5.

Finally, I also value these Jared McCann odds in the points market because he’s trading as short as -166 to register a point through FanDuel.

Jared McCann prop: Over 0.5 points (-125 at Bet99)

Prop bet #3: Doubling down on Dubois

Los Angeles Kings forward Pierre-Luc Dubois let me down on Monday. He was held off the scoresheet and the Kings lost 4-3 in a shootout to the bottom-feeding San Jose Sharks. Dubois was the first King on the ice for practice Tuesday, and Los Angeles draws another favorable matchup tonight. 

The Buffalo Sabres are playing the second leg of a back-to-back road set after losing 4-2 to the Anaheim Ducks on Tuesday. Buffalo has allowed the eighth-most goals (3.41) and sixth-most expected goals (3.4) per 60 minutes on the highway, and rookie starter Devon Levi sports a target-worthy .889 save percentage and 3.32 GAA through 19 appearances.

Dubois projects to remain on the No. 1 line with Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe against Buffalo, and I anticipate the polarizing forward to show up on the scoresheet after being called out by head coach Todd McLellan following Monday’s loss.  These Pierre-Luc Dubois odds align more with his downtick in scoring to this point of the season, and not his top-line role and potential in a favorable matchup.

Pierre-Luc Dubois prop: Over 0.5 points (+110 at Bet99)