Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Colin Blackwell Leads the Shot Brigade

Prop bet #1: Shot storm from Necas

With another nine shots on 10 attempts against the Boston Bruins on Wednesday, Carolina Hurricanes winger Martin Necas is up to 20 shots and 27 attempts through three games since returning from an upper-body injury. He’s clicked with linemates Jack Drury and Stefan Noesen for an otherworldly 70.5 Corsi For percentage across 88:01 of shared five-on-five ice time, and it’s clear Necas is the go-to shooter of the three.

Obviously, I don't anticipate Necas to approach double-digit shots every night, but his 9.0 shots per 60 minutes still trails last year’s career-high 9.54 mark. Additionally, his 10.78 shots and 20.24 attempts per 60 at home are notably higher than his respective 7.59 and 17.27 road marks. 

The New Jersey Devils also haven’t been a shot-suppressing opponent at 5-on-5 with No. 1 center Jack Hughes (upper body) out of the lineup. New Jersey has surrendered 30.43 shots and 62.36 attempts per 60 across the past eight games compared to 27.74 and 51.9 marks prior to Hughes’ latest injury.

There’s value in these Martin Necas odds because I expected his shot total to climb to 3.5 for Thursday’s game, and I have him conservatively projected for 3.35 shots.

Martin Necas prop: Over 2.5 shots (-125 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: Wyatt riot in Big D

Dallas Stars winger Wyatt Johnston joining Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson on the No. 1 line has been an instant success. The trio has clicked for seven goals at 5-on-5 while driving possession with a masterclass 69.2 Corsi For percentage and 83.2% expected goals share across the past five games. Johnston has racked up seven points — two goals — during the stretch and marked the scoresheet in three of five.

There is nothing scary about a date with the Anaheim Ducks, either. Anaheim has surrendered the 10th-most goals (2.69) and expected goals (2.68) per 60 minutes while ranking eighth-last in CF% (46.9%) at 5-on-5. Additionally, the Ducks average the most shorthanded ice time per game (6:53) and rank 25th in penalty-kill percentage (77.4%).

These Wyatt Johnston odds in the points market are shorter than the +110 price that was available Tuesday, but this is also a home game for the Stars. Johnston has 19 points and 2.84 per 60 across 24 games at American Airlines Center compared to just 12 points and 1.89 per 60 over 23 road contests. 

Wyatt Johnston prop: Over 0.5 points (-120 at Bet99)

Prop bet #3: Back to the well

Chicago Blackhawks winger Colin Blackwell continues to be a player I’m targeting in the shots market as long as his total is 1.5. He's stepped into a meaningful and consistent role and is pacing the Hawks in shots (33) and attempts (63) through 12 January games — registering two or more shots 10 times.

Additionally, even with Chicago ranking second-last in 5-on-5 Corsi For percentage (44.1%), Blackwell and linemates Jason Dickinson and Joey Anderson have actually driven 5-on-5 possession with a 53.3% mark.

The elephant in the room tonight is the Edmonton Oilers. Edmonton has surrendered the fourth-fewest shots (27.42) and third-fewest attempts (54.8) since head coach Kris Knoblauch took over 30 games ago. 

Still, the matchup is built into these plus-money Colin Blackwell odds, and I have him projected for 2.33 shots. Additionally, with Edmonton a huge home ice favorite, there’s potential for the Oil to take their foot off the gas and they allow more attempts and shots per 60 when leading.

Colin Blackwell prop: Over 1.5 shots (+105 at Bet99)