Today’s NHL Prop Picks and Best Bets: Stephenson Continues to Benefit From Top Role

Prop bet #1: Knight at the table

The round table is missing several trusted Vegas Golden Knights and center Chandler Stephenson has stepped up with Jack Eichel (knee) and William Karlsson (lower body) on the shelf. Stephenson has 15 shots and 23 attempts while averaging 19:38 of ice time through six games since Eichel has been out, and 12 of those shots have come across the past three games.

Stephenson projects to continue centering Mark Stone and Pavel Dorofeyev against the New York Rangers on Friday, and the trio is generating an impressive 38.51 shots per 60 minutes at five-on-five the past six games.

While the Rangers sport a middling, 17th-ranked 50.3 Corsi For Percentage at 5-on-5, they do allow the sixth-fewest shots per game overall (28.5). Still, I’m less concerned about New York limiting opposing shooters with this 1.5-shot total. Additionally, I value the Chandler Stephenson odds in this market Friday because of the noted chemistry with his two wingers, and especially because both are skilled playmakers. 

I have Stephenson projected for 2.15 shots on Friday.

Chandler Stephenson prop: Over 1.5 shots (-125 at Bet99)

Prop bet #2: Sell Rakell

Pittsburgh Penguins winger Rickard Rakell has been relegated to the third line alongside Lars Eller and Valtteri Puustinen, and it’s a huge downgrade for his offensive upside. Rakell has played in a top-six role with either Sidney Crosby or Evgeni Malkin for all but 45:25 of his five-on-five ice time this season. 

Eller’s 1.35 points per 60 minutes rank ninth among Pittsburgh forwards with at least 200 minutes at 5-on-5, which is also far below Crosby’s 2.82 and Malkin’s 2.16 marks. Puustinen is also mired in a nine-game point drought while averaging just 8:22 of ice time per night. Rakell has missed the scoresheet in four of his past five, and he’s also been replaced on the No. 1 power-play unit by Bryan Rust in the past three games.

Of course, this is also a daunting matchup against the No. 1 defense in my ratings. The Florida Panthers allow the third-fewest goals (2.02) and second-fewest expected goals (2.27) per 60 minutes while driving possession with the second-highest CF% (57.0) at 5-on-5. 

I don’t think the demotion to the third line or the difficult matchup is priced into these Rickard Rakell odds.

Rickard Rakell prop: Under 0.5 points (-145 at Bet99)

Prop bet #3: No blues for McCann

With Matty Beniers (upper body) injured, the Seattle Kraken have pushed Jared McCann into top-line duty, and he’s registered a team-high 19 shots and ranks second in attempts (29) over the past six games. McCann has also shown big-time chemistry with wingers Jordan Eberle and Tomas Tatar in the past four contests with a 64.9 CF% at five-on-five. 

This is a favorable matchup, too. The St. Louis Blues are allowing more shot attempts per 60 minutes (65.42 compared to 62.98) since the calendar flipped to January, and their CF% at 5-on-5 has dipped from 46.5% to 43.5% across the past 10 games.

I have McCann projected for 3.07 shots against the Blues on Friday.

Jared McCann prop: Over 2.5 shots (-120 at Bet99)