The league-leading Vancouver Canucks return home for the first time in over two weeks and host the Detroit Red Wings, who are fresh off giving up an eight-pack to the Edmonton Oilers on Tuesday.
The home side is a significant -185 favorite in the nightcap and will be looking to avenge a recent loss to the Wings where they blew a two-goal third-period lead on February 10.
Considering this is a Vancouver team that wins on average by 1.5 goals at home, is expecting the home side to hit the four-goal market the profitable side tonight?
I break down the NHL odds and offer my free NHL picks for Red Wings vs. Canucks for Thursday, February 15.
Red Wings vs Canucks odds
Red Wings vs Canucks predictions
The Vancouver Canucks offense has a great matchup vs. the Detroit Red Wings tonight. Projected starting goalie Alex Lyon is coming off a game where he allowed seven goals on 29 shots in a relief appearance after Tuesday starter Ville Husso exited with a lower-body injury.
Lyon has been a big reason for the Wings clinging to the last playoff spot in the East, but his workload has been too heavy for a career backup and he seems to be wearing down.
Heading into the eventual 8-4 loss to the Oilers, Lyon had started 15 of the previous 16 games but still had allowed three or more goals in nine of his previous 14 starts. Defensively, the Wings are not good at even strength and rank 29th in Corsi% since January 1, 28th in xGF%, and dead last in high-danger goals allowed/60.
The Wings need goaltending to play above their numbers and have been very fortunate Lyon had stepped up. Now with the heavy workload, teams are putting up crooked numbers vs. this poor defensive team. One of the best offenses in hockey should take advantage of that tonight.
Vancouver is paying -130 to score four or more goals, and when considering the near-minus-200 moneyline price, it’s time to hit that team total Over and drink those 30 points.
Lyon is entering this game with shaky confidence after allowing seven goals in Edmonton while Vancouver will be pumped to play at home for the first time since January 27, a place where it is 18-4-2 on the season and scoring 3.92 goals per game.
Rogers Arena will be rocking for a team it has seen just five times over its last 17 games and Detroit’s luck of getting better-than-expected goaltending might have run out.
My best bet: Canucks team total Over 3.5 (-130 at Sports Interaction)
Red Wings vs Canucks same-game parlay
Canucks -1.5
Over 5.5
Canucks -0.5 first period
Let's get a wire-to-wire win from the Canucks, who have been one of the most profitable first-period teams with a league-best plus-23 goal differential in the first frame across 54 games. Vancouver is also beating teams on home ice by more than 1.5 goals per game on the year and has been on the road since January 27, so the support tonight will be loud.
I like Vancouver to flirt with four or five goals tonight, meaning this Over could still hit with the visitors being held to just a single goal. Both of these clubs have been paying Overs all year but Vancouver will pull away with this one, hopefully early.
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Red Wings vs Canucks moneyline and Over/Under analysis
There hasn’t been much movement on this opening moneyline as Vancouver is sitting as a steady -185 home favorite. The most recent comparison is Vancouver closing as a -215 home favorite vs. Arizona on January 18, which might indicate there is a little room for Vancouver to get shorter.
Vancouver is the best team in hockey in terms of results. They’ve been elite at home, they’re 7-1-2 over their last 10 games, and they’re facing a team that has plenty of underlying defensive issues at even strength. Add in a goalie who may have lost his confidence in Edmonton and a 17-day homecoming from the Canucks, and I love the home side tonight. I would take them in regulation at -115/-110. To me, it’s a spot where Detroit is being overvalued and Vancouver is undervalued.
The Canucks have the goaltending edge as usual with Thatcher Demko going 11-1 SU over his last 12 starts. There is a revenge angle here as well as the Canucks blew a two-goal third-period lead to the Wings just two games ago, which has been the team’s only loss when leading after two periods.
On the season, both teams have been profitable to the Over at a combined 61-41-4. The total opened at 6.5 (-130 to the Over) and has seen some Under money come in, moving this down five points across the board as of late this afternoon. I’d be surprised if this Over didn’t take a little more money closer to game time.
However, Demko has been unreal, the last meeting saw a total of 2.03 unexpected goals, and Vancouver had backup Casey DeSmith in net in the 4-3 Detroit win.
I certainly lean on the Over but expect Vancouver to do most of the heavy lifting in terms of scoring. This is a Vancouver team winning home games by an average of 1.6 goals per game on the year and just held the Blackhawks to one shot on goal over the first 19 minutes of Tuesday's contest.
My guess is Vancouver closes as a -190/-195 favorite and the Over 6.5 at -130.
Look for Vancouver to test Lyon early after a bad start in Edmonton. The Canucks have been dominant in the early frame and have won 46 of their last 82 first frames for a +26% ROI.
Red Wings vs Canucks betting trend to know
The Canucks have hit the 1P Moneyline in 46 of their last 82 games (+28.15 Units / 26% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Red Wings vs. Canucks.
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Red Wings vs Canucks game info
| Location: | Rogers Arena, Vancouver, BC |
| Date: | Thursday, February 15, 2024 |
| Puck drop: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSDET, SN |
Red Wings vs Canucks latest injuries
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