Poles of the Atlantic Division meet tonight with the second-place Toronto Maple Leafs hosting the seventh-place Buffalo Sabres. There have now been seven or more total goals scored in five of the last six meetings between these two clubs.
Will this game feature another high-scoring affair, or can the goaltending step up this time around? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Sabres vs Maple Leafs on Saturday, November 19.
Sabres vs Maple Leafs best odds
Sabres vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
These two teams play at a fast pace that often leads to high-scoring first periods. There have been two or more total first-period goals scored in five of Buffalo’s last seven games and in each of Toronto’s last five.
Those trends should continue in this matchup between two strong offenses. At 5v5, each team ranks in the top half of the league in expected goals for per 60 minutes (xGF/60).
Special teams would only be an added bonus, as both clubs rank inside the Top 10 in the league in power-play goals. The confirmed starting goaltender for the Maple Leafs is also Matt Murray, who could be a fade-worthy candidate.
Through three starts this season, he’s 1-1-1 with a .903 SV% and 3.01 GAA. The first period Over has hit in each of his last two starts.
If he qualified, Murray would rank just 24th among starting goaltenders in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (GSAx/60) at 5v5. These below-average numbers should not be surprising despite the small sample size.
Serving as a rotational goaltender for the Ottawa Senators last season, Murray went 5-12-2 with a .906 SV% and 3.05 GAA. Across the ice, veteran goaltender Craig Anderson is slated to get the start for the Sabres.
Across seven appearances in the crease this season, Anderson possesses a .910 SV% and 2.82 GAA. While those surface-level stats are solid, regression should be looming for Buffalo’s netminder.
Among starting goaltenders, Anderson ranks in the bottom half of the league in GSAx/60 at 5v5. Playing in front of Anderson is a fade-worthy defense that ranks just 22nd in the league in expected goals against per 60 minutes (xGA/60) at 5v5.
While Buffalo’s defensive core is seeing some positive development from Rasmus Dahlin and Owen Power, their blue line tends to be offensive-minded. The absence of Mattias Samuelsson, who is currently on IR with a knee injury, certainly does not help this cause.
My best bet: First period Over 1.5 (-167 at SIA)
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Sabres vs Maple Leafs moneyline analysis
I would lean towards taking the Maple Leafs in this contest, but the juice is not worth squeeze. As of Friday evening, Toronto is laying around –255 on the moneyline.
This line makes sense considering that the Leafs are a better team on paper and the Sabres have lost seven straight. However, Buffalo isn’t going to keep losing forever and a divisional matchup will prompt an especially spirited performance from a young squad.
If laying that juice is not in your interest, then Toronto can be found at –120 on the puck line. But, as I just alluded to, laying juice on a puck line in a divisional matchup is not a play worth taking in these circumstances.
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Sabres vs Maple Leafs Over/Under analysis
The Over is a great play in this game, and if you want to go that route, it’s just as strong as taking the first period Over. Quite simply, I am taking the first period Over instead of the game Over because of the trends.
There have been two or more total first-period goals scored in five of Buffalo’s last seven games and in each of Toronto’s last five. We should expect Buffalo to come out firing in this game as they look to snap a long losing streak on the road against a divisional opponent.
Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs typically have no trouble lighting the lamp and could cash the first period Over by themselves.
Sabres vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know
The first period Over is 5-0 across Toronto’s last five games. Find more NHL betting trends for Sabres vs Maple Leafs.
Sabres vs Maple Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Saturday, November 19, 2022 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBC |
Sabres vs Maple Leafs key injuries
