Are the Ottawa Senators hitting the ice at Capital One Arena at the perfect time?
The Washington Capitals are sporting a season-long three-game losing streak and host the Sens tonight. My top Senators vs. Capitals predictions and NHL picks expect a low-scoring battle at Capital One tonight.
Senators vs Capitals prediction
My Senators pick
Under 5.5 (+104 at Pinnacle)
My Senators analysis
The Ottawa Senators have struggled offensively on the highway with a noticeable dip across the board at both 5-on-5 and with the man advantage. It’s been a key reason they’ve played to the Under in 31 of their past 46 road games (+17.60 units / 37% ROI), too.
| Home | Away | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals per game | 3.29 (11th) | 2.35 (29th) |
| 5-on-5 goals per 60 | 2.04 (30th) | 1.82 (29th) |
| 5-on-5 xGF per 60 | 2.32 (24th) | 2.29 (25th) |
| Power-play percentage | 29% (5th) | 16.3 (26th) |
Of course, facing the Metropolitan Division-leading Washington Capitals on the heels of a three-game losing streak might not be an ideal time to hit the ice at Capital One Arena, either.
The Caps are healthy, and despite the recent struggles, they've still allowed the third-fewest goals per game (2.57) and rank fifth with an 82.0 penalty-kill percentage.
Washington isn’t an overly undisciplined team, either. The Caps average a middling 5:02 of shorthanded time per game, and as highlighted, power-play success has been critical to this Ottawa offense.
Additionally, the Capitals have only scored three goals and generated 4.29 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 during their noted three-game losing streak.
I expect continued statistical correction to their league-leading 11.1 team shooting percentage at 5-on-5 after registering a 5.7% mark across the three-game skid.
Senators vs Capitals odds analysis
There has been a noticeable move to the Ottawa side of this moneyline with Pinnacle opening Sens +139 and adjusting to +126 as of Monday morning. There are some underlying advantages in the numbers for the Senators at 5-on-5, but Ottawa is also 13-16-2 on the highway, so there’s potential for buyback on the Caps ahead of puck drop.
This total has seen big action, too. Pinnacle opened at 5.5 and then tested a 6-goal total briefly overnight. Ottawa’s offensive struggles on the road have been highlighted, and Washington has also hit the Under in 44 of their last 87 games (+5.25 units / 5% ROI).
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Senators vs Capitals odds
Senators vs Capitals live odds
Senators vs Capitals opening odds
- Puck line: Ottawa +1.5 (-193) | Washington -1.5 (+165)
- Moneyline: Ottawa +139 | Washington -157
- Over/Under: Over 5.5 | Under 5.5
Odds courtesy of Pinnacle.
Senators vs Capitals trend
The Senators have cashed the Under in 28 of their last 46 away games (+12.05 units / 24% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Senators vs. Capitals.
How to watch Senators vs Capitals
| Location | Capital One Arena, Washington, DC |
| Date | Monday, 3-3-2025 |
| Puck drop | 6:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | TSN5 |
Senators vs Capitals latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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