The battle of Ontario will continue tonight as Ottawa Senators travel to take on Toronto Maple Leafs. The Buds will be without the services of Auston Matthews in this one, as the star forward is expected to miss at least three weeks with a knee injury.
The Leafs have moved from -250 to -200 on the moneyline but will face an Ottawa team that has lost six straight in Toronto and has the fifth-worst point percentage on the road.
Is the line movement an overreaction? Plus, who's stepping up in Matthews’ absence?
Find out more in our free NHL picks and predictions for Senators vs. Maple Leafs on January 27.
Senators vs Maple Leafs best odds
Senators vs Maple Leafs picks and predictions
With Auston Matthews on the shelf for a minimum of three weeks, the lines are going to look different for the Maple Leafs going forward. That means William Nylander will have to carry the load even more on the second line.
The Maple Leafs will be without Auston Matthews for a minimum of three weeks with a knee sprain, the team announces.
— David Alter (@dalter) January 27, 2023
Wonder if that will open up a spot for William Nylander for the All-Star Game. ????
Matthews and Nylander were looking great together over a two-game stretch that saw them reunite. With a very underrated Pontus Holmberg now getting a shot with Nylander, the team's leading scorer will be the trigger man on a line that saw the majority of its shift start in the O-zone last game.
At home, Nylander is averaging just under 4.00 shots on goal per game and has that number at 4.25 since December. He’s also seeing better matchups on home ice and is getting plus-0.8 more shots on net per game at Scotiabank Arena.
Nylander could also have a more aggressive shooting role on the power play without Matthews. Toronto might see plenty of time with the man advantage as the Senators take the seventh-most penalties per game on the season.
The Swedish winger is 9-2 to the Over in his last games on his shot market and will have a bigger role offensively with Matthews out. I expect this to be a high-scoring game in general, which only helps aid Nylander's prop that we're targeting.
My best bet: William Nylander Over 3.5 shots on goal (-139)
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Senators vs Maple Leafs moneyline analysis
Even without Matthews, this is still a deep Toronto team that has been getting contributions up and down the lineup. Ilya Samsonov has been a dominant 14-0-1 at home, but it looks like he'll get the night off on Friday.
Matt Murray is the first #Leafs goalie to leave the ice. He is the projected starter against the Senators tonight.@BodogCA @RinkWideTOR
— David Alter (@dalter) January 27, 2023
Since the Christmas restart, Matt Murray has lost his way. He has a 3.48 GAA with a .886 SV% over those seven games and hasn’t played since being pulled against Florida 10 days ago after allowing four goals on eight shots. Teams are picking on his glove hand yet again, and he’s been doing unconventional training at practice with goalie coach Curtis Sanford this week.
Ottawa is one of the worst road teams in hockey, sporting an 8-14 record and a negative-19 goal differential. The Sens are without top-six forward Josh Norris and possess the third-worst offense since Christmas. If there was a team that Murray could bounce back versus, it’s the Sens, who are heavily reliant on their top line.
If Murray can put in an average effort, the Leafs are better than a 66% favorite as they still have enough skill offensively to out-produce the Sens, with John Tavares now centering the second line.
The last time these two met early in the season, Toronto closed at -235 in a 3-2 win. Late last season, the Leafs were -330 home favorites against their Ontario rivals.
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Senators vs Maple Leafs Over/Under analysis
Betting Toronto Unders when Samsonov has been in the net has not been a fun ride of late. He’s 5-2 to the Under in his last seven starts but is projected to give way to Murray tonight, who has seen the Over go 5-1-1 in his last seven starts.
The Ottawa offense isn’t a great unit, ranking 25th in goals per game on the season at 2.85, but the loss of Matthews does hurt this Toronto team defensively. Ottawa also draws penalties at a Top-5 rate, and the Leafs’ penalty kill has been a Bottom-10 unit since the restart.
The new-look Toronto offense will face Anton Forsberg, and that should excite Over bettors. Cam Talbot has been the better of the Ottawa goalies, and Forsberg enters tonight with a GAA north of 3.00.
With the 200-foot game of Matthews gone and a pair of goalies who are a perfect target for goals, I’m loving the Over 6.5 tonight at even money.
Senators vs Maple Leafs betting trend to know
Ottawa is 0-6 SU in its last six meetings in Toronto. Find more NHL betting trends for Senators vs Maple Leafs.
Senators vs Maple Leafs game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Friday, January 27, 2023 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Sportsnet |
Senators vs Maple Leafs key injuries
