The Ottawa Senators have tidied up defensively and head to KeyBank Center to face the Buffalo Sabres for an Atlantic Division showdown on Tuesday, November 5.
Ottawa has played to the Under in consecutive games, and my top Senators vs. Sabres predictions and NHL picks are expecting goals to be few and far between for both clubs tonight.
Senators vs Sabres prediction
My Senators pick
Under 6.5 (-128 at Pinnacle)
My Senators analysis
The Ottawa Senators have tightened up defensively and allowed just five goals across their past three games, and No. 1 goalie Linus Ullmark has returned to being as advertised with a .933 save percentage and 1.89 expected goals against per 60 minutes across his past two starts.
Ottawa has also allowed the fewest expected goals against (1.26) at 5-on-5 in the league during the three-game stretch while also driving possession with a dominant 58.8 Corsi For percentage.
The commitment to improved team defense is reinforced by the Sens posting a 48.3 CF% while allowing 2.62 xGA per 60 across their first eight games of the year. It’s all added up to Ottawa allowing the sixth-fewest xGA (2.25) for the campaign.
Of course, the Buffalo Sabres also check important boxes for this Under. They rank 27th in expected goals per 60 (2.3) at 5-on-5 while allowing the seventh-fewest (2.29).
Additionally, I’m also anticipating Sabres No. 1 Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen to find a groove in short order. He posted an elite .919 SV%, 2.31 GAA and 0.43 goals saved above average per 60 minutes across his final 36 appearances last year, so his .893, 3.16 and 0.15 marks to start this season have positive regression ahead.
Finally, Buffalo has a league-low 8.6 power-play percentage, while Ottawa’s 33.3% mark is likely still eyeing negative regression after starting the season on a 12-for-28 heater (42.9%) up a man.
Senators vs Sabres Over/Under analysis
There has been a sizable move to the Ottawa side of this moneyline after the Sabres opened as the betting favorites at Pinnacle on Monday afternoon. The action on the Sens aligns with their highlighted improved 5-on-5 play of late.
This total has dropped from the opening 6.5 to 6 at Pinnacle. I prefer to target the alternative total at the higher vig to take away a potential push if there are exactly six goals scored.
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Senators vs Sabres odds
Senators vs Sabres live odds
Senators vs Sabres opening odds
- Puck line: Ottawa +1.5 | Buffalo -1.5
- Moneyline: Ottawa -102 | Buffalo -110
- Over/Under: Over 6.5 | Under 6.5
Odds courtesy of Pinnacle
Senators vs Sabres trend
The Senators have hit the Under in 26 of their last 43 away games (+8.50 Units / 18% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Senators vs. Sabres.
How to watch Senators vs Sabres
| Location: | KeyBank Center, Buffalo, NY |
| Date: | Tuesday, 11-5-2024 |
| Puck drop: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | RDS2, TSN5 |
Senators vs Sabres latest injuries
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