Sharks vs Golden Knights Picks and Predictions: Vegas Sinks Sharks at Home

The Vegas Golden Knights are losing ground in the Western Conference as a 1-5 straight-up stretch has put them on the playoff bubble. They’ll welcome a San Jose Sharks team tonight that has just one win in regulation over its last 10 games and has just a 2.4% chance to make the playoffs, per Money Puck.

Will the addition of Robin Lehner spark Peter DeBoer’s team that is 7-12 SU since January 1? Can the Sharks build on a recent stretch that has seen them take at least a point in four of their last six games? Find out in our free NHL picks and predictions for Sharks vs. Golden Knights on Tuesday, March 1.

Sharks vs Golden Knights odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The Golden Knights opened as -220 home favorites but have since moved 20 points to -240 with a total of 5.5 leaning to the Over. These two teams met in San Jose two weeks ago with the Knights skating away with a 4-1 victory as -165 visiting favorites and a total of 6.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until puck drop and be sure to check out the full NHL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Sharks vs Golden Knights predictions

• Prediction: Golden Knights -1.5 (+105)
• Prediction: Over 5.5 (-125)
• Best bet: Golden Knights TT Over 3.5 (-120)

Predictions made on 3/01/2022 at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Sharks vs Golden Knights game info

• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Paradise, NV
• Date: Tuesday, March 1, 2022
• Puck drop: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: SportsNet Rocky Mountain, NBCS-California

Sharks vs Golden Knights betting preview

Key injuries

Sharks: Erik Karlsson D (Out), Mario Ferraro D (Out), Rudolfs Balcers F (Out).
Golden Knights: Robin Lehner G (Probable), Max Pacioretty F (Out), Mattias Janmark F (Out), Dylan Coghlan D (Probable), Alec Martinez D (Out), Nolan Patrick F (Out), Mark Stone F (Out). 

Find our latest NHL injury reports.

Sharks vs Golden Knights head-to-head record since 2020

Sharks: 0-10 SU, 16 goals for.
Golden Knights: 10-0 SU, 41 goals for.

Betting trend to know

The Sharks are 0-4 SU in the last four meetings in Vegas. Find more NHL betting trends for Sharks vs. Golden Knights.

Sharks vs Golden Knights picks and predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Puck line analysis

The Vegas Golden Knights’ playoff berth is not a given this season as the now third-place team in the Pacific needs to straighten up or risk getting leapfrogged by the Stars, Oilers, Ducks and/or Canucks. The bottom spots in the West are becoming hyper-competitive and the Knights have picked a bad time to lose more bodies, and as a result, more games.

Since the beginning of the year, Vegas is 7-12 SU with a minus-5 goal differential and is trying to pull things together without Mark Stone and Max Pacioretty. Stone is currently on the LTIR while Pacioretty is dealing with a lower-body injury and has been ruled out for tonight’s matchup. The good news for the home team is goalie Robin Lehner is expected back after missing five games while defenseman Dylan Coghlan is also probable to suit up.

The injuries might be concerning down the road, but for tonight, it shouldn’t be an issue. The Knights beat the Sharks in San Jose, 4-1, 10 days ago with Logan Thompson in net in a game that got pretty chippy in the third period in the one-sided match. Despite Vegas struggling to play .500 hockey, the Sharks have been one of the worst teams over the last two months with a 7-14 SU mark and a roster that is depleted of depth with multiple injuries and absences from the team’s bottom-six forwards and blue line.

The Sharks have just two victories over their last 10 games, which came against the Kraken, and the Islanders in a shootout. This is starting to look like a team that is just going through the motions at this point and evaluating talent. The blue line has been put into a blender with injuries to three defensemen, and the veteran players that are still there are forced to play with replacement-level talent. 

James Reimer is likely to start tonight for the Sharks. He's coming off his best performance in 30 days, as the netminder had allowed at least three goals in each of his seven February starts before holding the Kraken’s weak offense to a single goal two nights ago. Vegas scored three goals on 34 shots versus Reimer in the last meeting, and the goalie owns a 5-9 SU record on the road with a 2.76 GAA.

Vegas should take care of a bad opponent tonight, especially with things about to get really busy for the Knights in March with 16 games on the schedule. The team should have some motivation with Lehner back in the crease, while the Sharks struggle with stringing wins together and have gone 0-9 SU in the last nine meetings versus the Knights.  

At -240 on the moneyline, we’re looking at the puck line to bring any value. Vegas is 16-9 ATS across its last 25 wins and knows it needs to snap this funk and hold off the other teams in the West.

Prediction: Golden Knights -1.5 (+105)

Over/Under analysis

The last meeting 10 days ago closed with a total of 6 but we’re getting 5.5 tonight. That matchup saw 5.78 expected goals in the 4-1 final but the hardest thing to swallow with this Over is the San Jose offense.

On the season, the Sharks sit in the Bottom 5 in even-strength goals scored and rank in the bottom of the league in possession stats and Fenwick%. They’ve scored just 2.48 goals per game since January, which also ranks in the Bottom 5 of the league. Making matters worse, they own one of the best penalty-killing units in hockey and have surrendered just one power-play goal over their last 10 games.

To hit this Over, we’d likely need the Knights to hit the four- or five-goal mark. Currently, Vegas’ team total Over 3.5 sits at -125 which implies roughly 56% probability. Vegas has scored at least four goals in six of the last eight meetings dating back to last season, while the Sharks are giving up 3.96 goals per game since the new year, which is the second-highest mark in hockey. Getting the Knights to four is looking more probable the more we dig into it.

Another question is whether or not this San Jose offense can manage two goals. Their team total 1.5 is a juicy -250 to the Over and they get to see a goalie who has been out since February 9, where Lehner allowed six goals to the Flames. Lehner has been in and out of the lineup this season and owns a 2.86 GAA, which is far from elite. 

This total opened at 6 and fell to 5.5. The previous meeting had a closing total of 6 and saw nearly 6.00 expected goals. None of the previous 10 meetings closed with a total of 5.5 and we wouldn’t be surprised if this one hit 6 closer to puck drop. Both teams are missing key defensive pieces, while the Knights can more than make up for the losses of Stone and Pacioretty offensively. Reimer is not a goalie we want to trust with a 5.5 total and the Under. 

Prediction: Over 5.5 (-125)

Best bet

We’re taking the inconsistent San Jose offense out of the equation and hitting the Vegas team total of 3.5 on the Over. Vegas has won every meeting over the last two seasons and anytime you win a game, the probability of hitting the four-goal mark is much higher. 

Teams need to beat the Sharks at 5-on-5 and the Golden Knights are a Top-5 even-strength offense. Lehner could be a little rusty in his first game back, which should only help push this Vegas offense or increase the chances with an empty net in a possible 3-2 game. Vegas has scored four or more goals in four of the last five meetings and we think that trend continues tonight.

Pick: Golden Knights TT Over 3.5 (-120)

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