Stars vs Kraken Game 4 Odds, Picks, and Predictions: Raining on Bjorkstrand's Parade in Seattle

The Dallas Stars and the Seattle Kraken will play Game 4 of their Western Conference semifinal series at Climate Pledge Arena on Wednesday night.

Coming off a humiliating Game 3 loss on the road, the Stars have shortened up in the NHL odds vs. the Kraken, but expected metrics are certainly on the visitor’s side tonight despite trailing 2-1 in the series. 

The Kraken have continued to be successful with a high shooting percentage, but with some motivation and the best xGF% of the remaining playoff teams, Dallas has a great chance to shut down Oliver Bjorkstrand and the Kraken tonight and return home with the series knotted up at two games apiece. 

Find out where my best bet lies in our NHL picks and predictions for Stars vs. Kraken on May 9.

Stars vs Kraken Game 4 odds

Stars vs Kraken series odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of May 9.

Stars vs Kraken Game 4 predictions

Despite giving up 14 goals across three games, the Dallas Stars still have the best expected goal% of the playoffs and the best xGA/60 of the remaining eight playoff teams. This is one of the best defensive teams in hockey, and it faces a Seattle Kraken team that doesn’t create a ton of high-quality scoring chances (only the Rangers and Wild created fewer scoring chances/60 in the playoffs) and has lived and died on its high shooting percentage. 

Seattle also runs three lines consistently and doesn’t give big minutes to its forwards. Oliver Bjorkstrand saw just under 14 minutes in Game 3, and has collected a point in four of his 10 playoff games. No Seattle player is averaging more than a point per game in the postseason, and 16 of the 18 players who have played at least five games have scored a goal. This is a deep Seattle offense that doesn't lean on its best skaters like other teams do. 

Bjorkstrand plays on the third line and the second power-play unit, and ranks 13th on the team in on-ice goal% and 12th in expected on-ice goal%. He's also taking more shifts in the defensive zone than the O-zone, which is not something that elite scorers do.

Dallas should tighten things up after a humiliating loss, and it has the proven expected metrics to do so. Jake Oettinger is playing below expected so far in the postseason with a neutral goals saved above expected. With Bjorkstrand not seeing great offensive opportunities and Seattle rolling nine forwards, I’m paying the 30 points for Bjorkstrand not to get a point and have this as a 40-percent probable play at the highest.

My best bet: Bjorkstrand Under 0.5 points (-130)

Stars vs Kraken Game 4 moneyline analysis

Coming off a bad 7-2 loss in Game 3, the good news for the Stars is that it doesn't matter how ugly a loss is in the playoffs, it’s still just a loss. Seattle scored on seven of their 26 shots and finished with just 2.42 expected goals, per Money Puck. It might look bad, but Dallas is still in great shape on the road tonight as -130 road favorites.

The Stars closed as -150 favorites on Sunday, and I think this -130 price is the best bettors will see, as there are currently some -150s out there at the time of writing. Considering Dallas closed at -215 in Game 2 at home, this 85-point adjustment is significant even if No. 1 defenseman Miro Heiskanen does sit.

The power-play quarterback took a puck to the face in Game 3 and never returned. Head coach Peter DeBoer said he is dealing with a cut and is not in concussion protocol. Heiskanen is playing over 27 minutes a game, so his absence would be significant. But at -130 on the moneyline, it seems to be partially priced in here. If he does suit up, this line could shorten up. But even if he were to sit, I can’t see Dallas closing at -120.

Despite allowing 14 goals through three games, this is still a great defensive team that just hasn’t had great goaltending. Oettinger has a neutral saves above expected, but this team still allows the fewest high-danger chances per 60 minutes of the remaining Stanley Cup playoff teams at even strength, while Seattle ranks 11th of the 16 playoff teams in xGF/60 at 5-on-5. 

Of the remaining eight playoff teams, Dallas has the best xG% at 58%, which means the Stars have the biggest expected goal differential of the other seven playoff teams. They might be trailing in the series and coming off a bad loss, but the metrics are indicating that Dallas is playing much better than most perceive. 

Considering bettors are getting the best price of the series, and statistically the better team with a superior goalie in Oettinger, I’d strongly consider taking the Stars at any number at -140 or longer. 

Stars vs Kraken Game 4 Over/Under analysis

Through three games, the Over is a perfect 3-0, but bettors might want to look for a tighter game tonight.

First off, the Stars are coming off an embarrassing loss, which is a very strong motivating factor. Oettinger had an off game in Game 3 and should rebound to average or better form tonight vs. a Seattle offense that has the lowest xGF/60 of the second round and the fifth-worst xGF/60 in the playoffs at even strength. 

Dallas also hasn’t had a great offensive track record at 5-on-5 in the postseason, ranking just one spot ahead of Seattle in xGF/60 at 2.38.

When we add in the fact that the Stars have the best xGA/60 in the playoffs at 5-on-5, it’s with confidence that I say the high-scoring games in this series aren't indicative of the underlying metrics.

Seattle’s offense is thriving on a shooting percentage that ranks second in the playoffs, and ranked No. 1 in the regular season. It’s very tough to score once on every 10 shots — especially in the playoffs.

With how well the Stars’ and DeBoer’s defensive system is and Seattle being slightly lucky vs. its expected metrics, I do lean on the Seattle team total Under 2.5, which can be found at even money. The full-game Under 5.5 at even money would also be something that I’d play if the market does move five more points in that direction.

In Game 1, Pinnacle closed the Under 5.5 at -137. In Game 2, it moved to -122, and then to -123 in Game 3. 

Stars vs Kraken betting trend to know

The Stars are 4-0 in their last four after allowing five goals or more in their previous game. Find more NHL betting trends for Stars vs. Kraken.

Stars vs Kraken Game 4 game info

Stars vs Kraken Game 4 injuries

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