As the Dallas Stars confront the Edmonton Oilers in Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals, the stakes rise not just on the scoreboard but also in the realm of prop betting.
I'm betting on the Oilers to keep up the pressure offensively but on Dallas’ depth to ultimately win out. These are my three best NHL picks for the Stars vs. Oilers on May 29.
Stars vs Oilers prop picks and best bets for May 29
- Oettinger Over 27.5 saves (-125 at BET99)
- Duchene Over 0.5 points (+120 at BET99)
- McDavid Over 3.5 shots (+125 at BET99)
Picks made on 5-29 at 1:15 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Today’s Stars vs Oilers prop picks and best bets
Prop bet #1: Oettinger Over 27.5 saves
Jake Oettinger’s odds for Over 27.5 saves took some magic to hit in Game 3, but with the Edmonton Oilers trailing in the series and winning the shot-attempt battle in every game, they'll continue to get shots on net tonight.
This prop is five points better than in Game 3, but I think tonight sets up as the best shot matchup for Edmonton, who had 25 more shot attempts than the Dallas Stars in Monday’s 5-3 loss.
The edge in shooting is coming from the Oilers giving their best players more minutes, as Connor McDavid is coming off his highest-volume shooting game of the playoffs while averaging more than three minutes of ice time per game over the last two rounds compared to the regular season.
I’m also backing the Stars on the moneyline, so any negative game script would really help this Over.
Edmonton had just 17 shots on goal through Game 3’s first 40 minutes, but while trailing, it significantly outshot Dallas 13 to three in the third. This Over can hit in many ways and the added overtime equity is also considered.
Jake Oettinger prop: Over 27.5 saves (-125 at BET99)
Prop bet #2: Duchene Over 0.5 points
With Roope Hintz returning, the Stars’ offense is back to full strength, and the lines have been reset. The top line saw 10:31 time on ice in Game 3, but it was the Marchment/Duchene/Pavelski line that dominated.
The No. 2 line saw 10:20 time on ice at 5-on-5 in Game 3 and controlled the play mostly against the Oilers’ third line of Foegele/Henrique/Brown. The Matt Duchene line generated 14 SAT to four against and had an 88.3% expected goal share when on the ice.
This line has a great chance to point tonight vs. Stuart Skinner, who is easily the worst remaining goalie in the playoffs. Duchene is the center (and PP2 center) and gets a lot of touches. Matt Duchene's odds to get a point are at +120, but it’s tough to go wrong with Mason Marchment at +140 or even Joe Pavelski at +115.
Duchene is my play here, as his price, matchup, and expected changes (second on the team in XG in Game 3) are tough to ignore. The entire line to get a point tonight is +800 if that’s your thing.
Matt Duchene: Over 0.5 points (+120 at BET99)
Prop bet #3: McDavid Over 3.5 shots
The Oilers’ lack of depth showed late in Game 3 and because of that, Connor McDavid is taking longer shifts and getting more ice time of late.
McDavid finished Game 3 with a playoff-high seven shots on goal on a team-high 10 shot attempts. Leon Draisaitl has just one point in the series, and it looks like McDavid will have to shoulder the load again tonight on a team that is winning the possession battle and should flirt with 30 to 35 shots tonight.
Connor McDavid's odds to hit four shots is +125, and it’s tough to see a critical game where he doesn’t take over. If you're into ladders, McDavid for 5+ SOG is +250, and 6+ SOG at +550.
Connor McDavid: Over 3.5 shots (+125 at BET99)
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