We can't help but get this strong feeling of deja vu, with a Canada vs. China Olympic hockey betting preview feeling all too familiar.
Oh right. That's because these two nations faced off yesterday and now play a rematch two days later... with much more on the line as we're down with the preliminary round and into the qualifying stage — where the loser doesn't get a second chance.
The Canucks had no problem getting past China in the first game, nor should they struggle to win in this matchup, but the real question is: Can Team Canada cover a lofty, lofty puck line?
Canada vs China odds
| Canada | China | |
|---|---|---|
| -10,000 | Moneyline | +2,400 |
| -4.5 (-143) | Puck line | +4.5 (+120) |
| Over 7.5 (+125) | Total | Under 7.5 (-150) |
Odds as of February 13, 2022.
Canada opened as a whopping -6,667 moneyline favorite for the first meeting, which Canada won 5-0 and had a chance at a direct spot in the quarterfinals on the line. Now that we're in the elimination stage, Canada is up to -10,000 on the ML, although the puck line is still just -4.5 (albeit juiced to -143 compared to the -125 the last game), while the total remains at 7.5.
Canada vs China predictions
- Prediction: Canada -4.5 (-143)
- Prediction: Over 7.5 (+125)
- Best bet: Canada first-period -1.5 (+105)
Predictions made on 2/14/2022 at 3:53 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
Canada vs China game info
• Location: Beijing National Indoor Stadium, Beijing, CHN
• Date: Tuesday, February 15, 2022
• Puck drop: 8:10 a.m. ET
• TV: CBC
Canada vs China picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Puck line analysis
Canada outshot China 44-26 in the first matchup, jumping out to a 3-0 first-period lead and then coasting the final 40 minutes to a 5-0 victory.
The win moved Canada to 2-1-0 in the preliminary round, good for second in Group A (behind undefeated USA) but it was not enough to finish in the Top 4 of the tournament, as Sweden finished second in Group C at a 2-0-1 mark — good for fourth overall through the preliminary round.
So here we are, with Canada needing to defeat China again, but does the rematch stand to be a tougher version of Team China? In Sunday's game, The Canucks faced Team China backup Paris O'Brien, who sports a 4.54 GAA and .891 SV% in eight games this season for the KHL's Kunlun Red Star. We're expecting China to trot out Jeremy Smith (who has a 4.04 GAA and .898 SV% in 25 games with Kunlun this year) in the qualifying game matchup, who stopped 35 of 38 shots against Germany in a 3-2 loss and 47 of 55 shots in an 8-0 opening-game loss to the United States.
While facing a tougher goalie might give us pause that Canada can repeat covering the -4.5 puck line, it also looked like Canada had taken its foot off the glass in the latter half of the first game — and we don't expect them to repeat that in a do-or-die game.
We're banking on Canada playing hard for 60 minutes, especially against a Chinese team that severely lacks depth — coach Ivan Zanatta had two dressed players not even hit the ice and three others played less than three minutes each — and will either have extremely tired skaters or severely overmatched players on the ice.
This isn't the true juggernaut Team Canada we're accustomed to seeing in international competitions, but there are legitimate former NHLers (Eric Staal, Josh Ho-Sang, David Desharnais) and some top prospects (Owen Power, Mason McTavish, Kent Johnson) that should have no problem exploiting inferior opponents.
Playtime in the men's Olympic hockey tournament is over. Don't get cute here — Canada will come out and take care of business, soundly beating an inferior team and building momentum for a looming quarterfinal matchup against Sweden.
Prediction: Canada -4.5 (-143)
Over/Under analysis
China has a whopping two goals in three games, getting shut out against both the United States and Canada, so the honus will be on the Canucks to carry this game Over the 7.5 total.
In their two wins, Canada scored five goals against both Germany and China, seemingly taking their foot off the pedal and coasting to victory both times. Coach Claude Julien also noted that Canada had a 20-minute "lapse" in a 4-2 loss against the USA, meaning this team has yet to actually put together three strong periods in one game.
With a real test awaiting them next round in Sweden, Canada will want to put their foot on the gas and deliver a strong effort, start to finish. That means, for us, plenty of goals and getting to eight goals tonight.
And say China manages to scratch a goal across? Even better for this bet.
Prediction: Over 7.5 (+125)
Best bet
Despite not yet playing a complete game, Canada has been fantastic in scoring early.
The Canucks opened the scoring against the USA just 1:24 into the game and despite ultimately losing that period 2-1, they were able to take strangleholds against the much-inferior opponents in holding identical 3-0 leads after 20 minutes against Germany and the previous matchup with China.
There's no reason to believe Canada won't want to come out firing and put the game out of reach as early as possible, so we'll happily take the significantly better team to hold a multi-goal lead after 20 minutes — at plus money.
Pick: Canada first-period -1.5 (+105)
Did you know that if you parlayed today’s Canada vs. China picks, you could win $68.38 on a $10 bet?
