Canada knocked China off on Tuesday morning and now have to get ready for another elimination game versus a much better opponent in Sweden less than 24 hours later. The books have this is a near-pick ‘em with a total sitting at 5.5.
Can the Canadians keep rolling despite a cupcake schedule? Can the Swedes erase the memory of their epic three-goal collapse versus Finland in the preliminary round? Find out in our picks and predictions for Canada vs. Sweden.
Canada vs Sweden odds
| Canada | Sweden | |
|---|---|---|
| -105 | Moneyline | -115 |
| +1.5 (-286) | Puck line | -1.5 (+225) |
| Over 5.5 (+120) | Total | Under 5.5 (-143) |
Odds as of February 15, 2022.
Sweden opened as slight -115 ML favorites with a total of 5.5 that leans to the Under. Canada has been the heavy favorite for all four of their games so far in the tournament.
Canada vs Sweden predictions
Predictions made on 2/15/2022 at 12:05 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
Canada vs Sweden game info
• Location: Beijing National Indoor Stadium, Beijing, CHN
• Date: Wednesday, February 16, 2022
• Puck drop: 8:30 a.m. ET
• TV: CBC
Canada vs Sweden picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Moneyline analysis
The Canadians had the benefit of facing the Chinese in their first elimination game. The game was anything but a lay-up in the early going with China hanging tight in the first period. The Canadians likely gave head coach Claude Julien a heart attack with their lack of defensive responsibility.
Canada has not played up to Julien’s defensive standards through four games and even though they beat China twice by a combined score of 12-2, the odd-man rushes Canada allowed likely would have been a death sentence versus a quality opponent. Goalie Matt Tomkins bailed his team out but we aren’t positive the results will be the same versus a much better Sweden team.
Coming into the tournament, the Swedes were the No. 4 betting favorite to win gold at +600, which was one spot behind the Canadians at +450. Playing a decent group that featured Finland, Slovakia, and Latvia, the Swedes are prepared for a close game while it seems Canada’s schedule hasn’t done them any favors as the USA game feels like an eternity ago.
Sweden entered their third group-stage game versus Finland as +135 dogs on the moneyline. In what was likely the most competitive game to date in the tournament, Sweden scored three straight power-play goals in the second period, which was aided by a five-minute major and then a 5-on-3. The Swedes would give it all back in the third period in what could easily be described as a collapse, but they hung tight versus a quality opponent in Finland.
Despite the loss, Sweden comes into this game as a slight favorite and has played more quality hockey than the Canucks. Sweden has allowed just one even-strength goal so far and faces a Canadian offense with no real identity and a lack of speed that has made its counter game nonexistent. Canada scored seven goals versus China Tuesday morning, but only a couple were quality while four came on the power play and another on a penalty shot.
Another angle that has us shy on Canada is in net. Tomkins has played the last two games versus China and it would be tough for Julian to go to Eddie Pasquale after he last played six days ago versus the USA and took the 4-2 loss. Tomkins made some big saves for Canada versus the Chinese but he's still arguably the third-best goalie on this roster. He does currently play in the Swedish Hockey League (SHL) and is enjoying a quality season, but there is a big difference between China and Sweden.
Canada's lack of finish and speed combined with defensive miscues and a dearth of quality offensive chances haven't filled us with confidence. The books have adjusted their pre-tournament feel on Canada and this line is very accurate. We were hoping to get the Swedes as dogs but that’s a no-go here. This game will be tight and we don’t see a great edge on either side at this price. We do lean on Sweden after watching the Canadians make too many mistakes versus an inferior opponent in China for two straight games and think that is Canada's biggest disadvantage.
Canada beat Sweden 3-1 in the Channel One Cup in December but both teams finished with identical 1-0-2 records. Wednesday’s game will feature many of the same players from that game and even that match closed as a near-pick ‘em.
Prediction: Sweden ML (-115)
Over/Under analysis
The Canadians are 2-2 O/U through four games while Sweden has flirted with the Over in all three games but is just 1-2 O/U heading into Wednesday’s elimination match. Sweden has relied heavily on its power play to do the heavy lifting while the Canadians have also been successful with the man advantage. Sweden’s PK has not been a strength as it has yielded four goals over its last three games and with the referees seemingly calling everything and the potential for five-minute majors on any dangerous hit, relying on PP goals for this over might not be a terrible idea.
Sweden has taken 14 minor penalties through three games while Canada took 10 plus a five-minute major across its two games versus the Chinese. Canada has done a decent job of killing penalties but three of its four games were against Germany and China.
With the total sitting at 5.5 and paying a pretty +120 for the Over, a 3-1 game could easily finish 5-1 with elimination on the line. Sweden has seen at least five goals scored in each of their three games while Canada’s only competitive game versus the US saw the Over 5.5 hit early in the third period in a 4-2 loss.
Swedish goalie Magnus Hellberg owns a 2.46 GAA and allowed all four goals to Finland in his last start on just 27 shots. He’ll likely oppose Tomkins, who has stopped 53 of 55 shots but all of those came from the Chinese. Many of the Swedish skaters have seen Tomkins in the SHL.
The Canadians haven’t been able to play the system coach Juien wants and we doubt two games versus China has helped them solve their self-inflicted problems. Empty-net goals are a real factor in elimination games and a 4-2 finish is still in the cards even if both sides play tightly. Add in the penalty issues and the price, and we’re not shying away from this Over 5.5.
Prediction: Over 5.5 (+120)
Best bet
Canada has made plenty of mistakes through four games but the Swedes haven't been perfect either. Penalties have been an issue on both sides while each nation's power plays have had no problem tickling twine.
Hellberg looked shaky in his last start versus Finland while Tomkins has only seen the Chinese so far in the tournament and many Swedish skaters have seen him before in the SHL. Canada should be able to get two or three and if the Chinese can score a pair versus Canada, the Swedes should get plenty of opportunities as well.
Pick: Over 5.5 (+120)
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