It may feel like a disappointment, but South Korea will be vying for a bronze medal against the Dominican Republic in the 2020 Olympics on Friday night.
The South Korean national team already beat the DR 4-3 at the beginning of the playoff round, but they needed a three-run ninth inning to complete the walk-off win. Both teams were eliminated from contending for the gold by losses to the USA — South Korea was beaten 7-2 yesterday while the DR lost to the Americans 3-1 on Tuesday.
South Korea opened as -213 favorites, although that line has been bet down to -165, with the total set at 8.5.
Here are our free picks and predictions for Dominican Republic vs. South Korea for Friday, August 6, with first pitch at 11:00 p.m. ET.
Dominican Republic vs South Korea game info
• Location: Yokohama Baseball Stadium, Yokohama, Japan
• Date: Friday, August 6, 2021
• Time: 11:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Peacock (live), NBC (delay)
Dominican Republic vs South Korea betting tips
- Dominican Republic ML (+125)
- Over 8.5 (-115)
Read on for complete analysis
Dominican Republic vs South Korea match odds
Dominican Republic: +125
South Korea: -165
Total: 8.5
Over 8.5: -115
Under 8.5: -125
Dominican Republic vs South Korea betting preview
Starting Pitchers
Raul Valdes (Dominican Republic): Valdes is a 43-year-old left-hander who has already pitched against the South Koreans, back on August 1 in the playoff round. He somehow allowed just one run after allowing seven hits and walking another three in 5 1-3 innings. He flirted with danger all game but his team was leading 3-1 when he exited the game. He’s pitched to a 3.20 ERA over five starts in the Dominican Winter League in 2020-21.
Minwoo Kim (South Korea): Kim has been solid for the Hanwha Eagles in the KBO this season, going 9-5 with a 3.89 ERA across 16 starts. The righty has made one start in the Olympics — giving up one run on two hits over 4 1-3 innings against Israel — and also retired all five batters he faced in a relief appearance against Team USA.
Key injuries
Dominican Republic: No key injuries to report.
South Korea: No key injuries to report.
Weather
Temperatures are expected to be in the high-80s around first pitch, with cloudy skies helping limit the heat from direct sunlight. Humidity will be at 68 percent, with a 37 percent chance of rain forecasted — and jumping up to 55 percent around 2 p.m. local time. There will be a 10 mph wind, with gusts up to 18 mph.
Betting trend to know
The Dominican Republic has not trailed in over 75 percent of its total innings through five games.
Dominican Republic vs South Korea predictions
Moneyline pick
The Dominican Republic heads into the bronze medal game with a 2-3 SU record and a -2 run differential. However, the DR could have easily walked away with wins against South Korea and Japan if it could have closed out some ninth-inning leads.
The Dominicans blew a 3-1 lead to the Japanese national team in their opener, after Japan scored three runs in the bottom of the ninth inning to secure the win. Just two games later, versus South Korea in the playoff round, the DR blew an identical 3-1 ninth-inning lead. If it weren’t for these meltdowns, the Dominican Republic could be playing for a different medal.
Raul Valdes will get the start for the DR on Friday and the lefty already has some familiarity with the Korean lineup as he started in the 4-3 loss. The 43-year old escaped disaster with just one run allowed after giving up seven hits and three walks over five-plus innings. Valdes worked out of trouble all game but some credit is definitely due to the veteran pitcher. The lefty owns very average walk-rate numbers so the three walks are something that could be fixed heading into Friday night.
The Dominican offense has been led by Seattle prospect Julio Rodriguez, who is ranked No. 5 in the MLB’s Top-100 prospects. "JROD" is slashing .400/.381/.450 and is following third baseman Erick Mejia, who has a .941 OPS, in the order. Jose Bautista leads things off for the DR and the former Toronto Blue Jay is fresh off a walk-off single that sent the DR to the medal game.
The Koreans come into Friday’s match having played two straight days, where they went 0-2 SU and were outscored 12-4. They used two of their best starters in a pair of losses to Japan and the USA and come into Friday’s game with a ton of pressure.
South Korea has mandatory military service but if athletes can win an Olympic medal, they will be exempt from performing the 18-month service. This stretches from abled-bodied South Koreans who are between the ages of 18-26 — which hits plenty of players on this Olympic roster.
South Korea comes into this game in poor form, with extra pressure, and has a tired team and bullpen that have been busy over the last two days. We can't advise taking them at -165, especially without their best pitcher taking the mound.
The DR at +125 is a great price for a team that has been playing tight ball all tournament and experienced a lot in a short period.
PICK: Dominican Republic (+125)
Over/Under pick
The DR is 1-4 O/U in the tournament but let's be honest: Valdes’ last start goes Over seven times out of 10. He finished the game with a near-2.00 WHIP and left a ton of South Korean runners on the bases.
The Dominican offense has been average (3.00 runs per game) but they could be in for a better matchup as South Korea will use its No. 3 starter, Minwoo Kim. Minwoo was great against Israel but the Israelis were one of the weaker teams in the tournament. He has a career 5.61 ERA in the Korean Baseball Organization (KBO), and the DR has a great mix of young prospects and veteran players in the line-up that should be able to handle the Korean right-hander.
South Korea will be playing its third game in three days and has used 10 relievers over the last two days coming into Friday’s match. In the 7-2 loss to America on Thursday morning, South Korea burned through seven relievers — who combined to record just nine outs.
The DR bullpen has also been a rollercoaster after the two blown saves. Their current closer, Luis Castillo, is rocking a 7.73 ERA and took the loss on the 4-3 loss to South Korea in the playoff round.
These totals have been hard to hit in the Olympics as things can swing heavily from inning to inning. With that said, we’re riding the Over 8.5 and think both teams can get some early runs.
PICK: Over 8.5 (-115)
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