Australia vs Greece Odds, Picks & Predictions: Olympic Men’s Basketball

It’s been a tough start to the Olympics for Greece, which has yet to win a game in Group A, as Giannis Antetokounmpo gets set to lead his country against Australia. The Aussies are a 4.5-point favorite and look to rebound after a loss to Canada.

While I expect a big game from Antetokounmpo in my Australia vs. Greece predictions, getting the win is a whole other story. Check out my Olympic men’s basketball picks for Friday, August 2 below.

Australia vs Greece prediction

My best bet
Australia -4.5 (-120)

My analysis
In the first men’s basketball game of the Olympics, Australia thrashed a once-dominant Spain team by 12 points. It was an impressive showing for the Aussies in the 92-80 win, with their NBA talent stepping up.

While Australia isn't expected to medal this year, this remains one of the better teams in Paris. Even in its 10-point loss to Canada, it looked like the better team in the first half and a win over Greece should guarantee it advances to the quarterfinals.

What’s made this Australian team as dangerous as the Outback has been the play of its guards. NBA veteran Patty Mills (13.5 points per game) alongside young guns Josh Giddey and Dyson Daniels has proven to be a difficult matchup for defenses.=

The size and versatility of Giddey and Daniels have especially been a problem for opponents with both 21-year-olds being natural point guards with 6-foot-8 frames. The pair of them are combining to average 29.5 points, 14 rebounds, and 9.5 assists per game while shooting 44.4% from behind the arc.

The injection of youth from those two should create trouble for the Greeks, who have been inconsistent through two games. After putting up a good fight against Canada, but ultimately losing 86-79, Greece was lackluster in a loss to Spain.

It’s clearly Antetokounmpo’s team and he’s running up NBA MVP numbers, however, without much around him, it’s been a struggle when he’s not on the court. Greece’s talent is clearly in the frontcourt with Kostas Papanikolaou being the team's second-best player, but that means Giddey, Daniels, and Mills are poised to expose the backcourt duo of Thomas Walkup and Nick Calathes.

And it’s not as if Antetokounmpo can come down and deal with them, because Aussie big man Jock Landale has quietly been one of the best frontcourt players at the Olympics. The 6-foot-11 Landale is putting up 18 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 4.5 assists per game.

Giannis will get his, but losing by fewer than five doesn’t look likely.

The Greek freaks on the Aussies

My Giannis Antetokounmpo prop: Over 40.5 points + rebounds + assists (-140)

There’s not much more Giannis can do at this point. He’s playing 33+ minutes per game and putting up 30.5 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game.

In both the losses to Canada and Spain, Antetokounmpo finished with Over 40.5 points + rebounds + assists, which is why these odds are so short. The odds imply a 58.33% probability he’ll go Over 40.5 for the third straight game, and given his usage for Greece, it’s hard to imagine he comes up short.

Australia is talented, but a lot of that talent is in the backcourt, and not even All-NBA level players are capable of stopping Antetokounmpo. Between Landale and Nick Kay, don’t expect the Aussies to shut him down.

Australia’s head coach Brian Goorjian has his roster loaded up on guards, with only two players over 6-foot-9 playing minutes and only three natural frontcourt players in the rotation. It’s unlikely Goorjian will sell out to stop Giannis because even if he does, it’s unlikely this team will be able to slow the Greek Freak.

In the win over Spain, Australia showed it can struggle with talented frontcourt players when Santi Aldama went off for 27. Giannis is just a little better than Aldama.

Australia vs Greece same-game parlay (SGP)

So far, both of Australia’s games have gone Over 167.5 with the average total hitting 174. Between the guard play of the Aussies and Giannis dominating for Greece, this one should be high-scoring enough to hit the Over.

While neither of Greece’s games has gone Over 167.5, Australia doesn’t have the frontcourt defense to slow both Giannis and Papanikolaou for four quarters. The Greeks should be able to score enough points to help this Over cash, but it’ll be the Aussies doing the heavy lifting.

Australia is averaging 87.5 points per game and has a rotation that runs eight deep. That will keep talented players like Landale, Giddey, Mills, and Daniels fresh — which is also why Daniels is in for another big game.

The newly-acquired Atlanta Hawks guard has been a perfect complement on offense, averaging 11.5 points per game while shooting 42.8% from three. While he’s not the focal point of the offense, he’s been playing plenty of minutes — tied for the most in the loss to Canada with 31.

Big minutes against a struggling Greek squad should result in another nice showing for Daniels.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Australia vs Greece odds

Odds as of 8-1.

Australia vs Greece game info

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