Canada vs Spain Odds, Picks & Predictions: Olympic Men’s Basketball

While Canada has already clinched a spot in the Men's Olympic Basketball odds quarterfinals with wins over Greece and Australia, their opponent on Friday — World No.2 Spain — is sitting at 1-1 and needs a win in order to have a chance to advance. 

Canada has the chance to play spoiler and work on some of their weak areas from the prior games, but can they match the desperation and intensity of the Spanish side?

My free betting picks and Canada vs. Spain predictions highlight the outstanding play of RJ Barrett — and why I expect it to continue on Friday.

Canada vs Spain prediction

My best bet
RJ Barrett Over 18.5 points (-105)

My analysis
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the engine that makes Canada go and Jamal Murray is the player with the most NBA playoff success to his resume. Still, there’s a real argument the best player for Canada thus far has been RJ Barrett. 

He's been a polarizing figure throughout his NBA career. He’s a player who flashes tremendous upside but consistently failed to produce for the New York Knicks. However, for Toronto Raptors fans or those paying close attention, it appears that RJ may have made the leap after his trade to his hometown team midway through last season.

In 32 games following the trade that sent RJ from New York to Toronto, Barrett’s scoring ticked up by more than 3.0 points per game and his efficiency hit a new level. After having a middling effective field goal percentage for his career, he topped a 60% eFG% as a Raptor.

While shooting the 3-ball well was a part of it, that wasn’t the primary reason. Instead, his feel for when to attack the rim and when to pass improved, and his 2-point shooting was over 60% for the first real stretch of his pro career. That development feels sustainable and less like a random hot shooting spurt.

Barrett has continued his strong play for Team Canada, scoring 47 points on 16-for-27 from the field through two games while going 11-12 from the foul line. He’s well set up to produce against Spain as well, due to his particular style of play.

Even before his recent improvements, RJ has long been a player who crushes teams that don’t have elite rim protection. He’s a slashing wing who wants to attack the basket on every possession, and Spain has been without quality rim protectors since Marc Gasol retired from international play. 

Spain also needs to generate offensive rebounds to juice their offense, which means their bigs aren’t always in position to stop a fast break bucket. Barrett is a force in transition and Spain also plays a lot of older veterans who simply have no chance of slowing the Broadway Bully on his forays to the rim.

Canada conserves SGA

My Shai Gilgeous-Alexander prop: Under 21.5 points (-125)

Shai has had an understated but strong start to the Paris Olympics. He remains absolutely nails in situations where the Canadians just need a tough bucket, and his ability to make plays on both ends makes him stand out against comparable All-NBA caliber guards playing in the tournament.

However, head coach Jordi Fernandez has shown a tendency to reign in Shai’s minutes quite a bit despite his impact. While other stars are regularly flirting with the 30-minute mark, Shai has hovered well south of that.

Fernandez no doubt remembers that while SGA was arguably the best player at last year’s FIBA World Cup, his carry job for Team Canada eventually came back to bite them in the medal rounds. Shai was clearly spent and worn down by the physical demands of the World Cup and didn’t have the juice to get Canada over the line and into the gold-medal game.

Though Canada’s spot in the next round is already assured, I don’t think they’ll just lay down and die, but I do suspect that if anyone gets a short hook, it will be Shai. His health and performance are just too critical to Canada’s chances in the knockout rounds.

Canada vs Spain same-game parlay (SGP)

The departures of both Gasol brothers and Ricky Rubio signaled the end of the golden era of Spanish basketball, but the team still has some exciting young talent, the most promising of whom is Santi Aldama. The Memphis Grizzlies forward has been easily Spain’s best player in the tournament, providing them with much-needed shooting from the forward spot.

Aldama is nearly 7-feet tall, which in theory would make him a trouble spot for Canada, but though Canada’s best defenders are wings, Dillon Brooks and Lu Dort have both shown a willingness and effectiveness at guarding much taller players.

Brooks notably did an admirable job defending 7-foot-4 Victor Wembanyama in Canada’s exhibition game against France, and only foul trouble has slowed him from flashing his All-Defense caliber play more. Dort, meanwhile, has arguably been the best perimeter defender in the tournament. He's coming off a game where he held Patty Mills to 2-10 from the field for eight points, 10 below his prop for that matchup. 

And while Mills is older, he’s one of the most accomplished scorers in international basketball history. Mills committed a comically illegal screen on Dort later in the game seemingly out of frustration. Brooks will get a strong look at Santi as well because he’s two inches taller than Dort, but Dort’s linebacker-like build gives him a chance to hang with Aldama despite the height disparity.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Canada vs Spain odds

Odds as of 8-2.

Canada vs Spain game info

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