The Summer Olympics kick off this week in Paris, France, and as usual, the Olympic men's basketball odds will be one of the highlights.
While the USA is still a heavy favorite, the international growth of the game has flipped an America-dominated event on its head, creating a whole new realm of betting opportunities.
Back in the “Dream Team” days, only nine NBA players opposed the U.S. in the 1992 Olympics. This squad, led by LeBron James and Steph Curry, will face 61 NBA players.
Amid those challenges, here are some of the best bets for Team USA ahead of tipoff on July 27.
Best bet: U.S. assists leader
LeBron James +350
A disclaimer should be offered here that the five tune-up games the U.S. played featured some trial-and-error lineups. The stats from those five games should not be considered gospel for what to see in Paris. Not to mention, a five-game sample size is never ideally predictive.
That said, it’s comical to see Tyrese Haliburton as either the favorite or the second favorite to lead the Americans in assists. The Indiana Pacers point guard didn’t notch a single assist in the last two games of the USA Basketball Showcase, the two uncomfortably close games.
They were not uncomfortably close because Haliburton wasn’t given the keys to the offense. They were uncomfortably close because that’s sometimes what happens in basketball.
LeBron handed out 11 assists in those two games, including seven against South Sudan, the highest assist total of any U.S. player in these five exhibitions. He led the Americans with 19 assists in these games, and yet he can be had at +350 to do that when the games matter.
Popular basketball futures markets
Best bet: U.S. rebounds leader
Anthony Davis +200
The initial thought here was to bet Jayson Tatum at +1,100. He averaged 9.7 rebounds in 19 postseason games on his way to his first NBA Finals trophy. That dynamism could be particularly helpful in the spread-out basketball inherent to FIBA play.
But Tatum managed just 17 boards in the five tune-up games, twice grabbing only one rebound. Frankly, his 17.8 minutes per game could be a reflection of his Finals run. U.S. head coach Steve Kerr is willing to give him a reduced workload when able to.
Meanwhile, Anthony Davis reached double-digits in rebounds in three of the five games, leading the U.S. with 49 total. Any instinct to back Joel Embiid or Bam Adebayo here can be dismissed when realizing they grabbed 34 and 24, respectively.
The exhibitions made clear that Davis is the go-to big on this roster, certainly the best one in FIBA play. He will play most consistently and most often.
Best bet: U.S. scoring leader
Anthony Edwards +400
After the Americans held on late against Germany on Monday thanks in large part to LeBron scoring the final 11 U.S. points in the last four minutes of the game, there’s an understandable instinct to bet on him to lead the Americans to the gold medal. At +700 odds, that bet is tempting.
But LeBron picks his moments, the moments that are most worrisome, the moments when the U.S. most needs him. He does the same thing in the NBA season; he can still be the best player in the world, but for only moments.
The U.S. should play six games in Paris. At least three of those games will be against Serbia, South Sudan and Latvia. All due respect to the defending NBA MVP, the U.S. should rout those three. LeBron will not flex in those moments.
Anthony Edwards does not know how to pick a moment. He knows only how to go all-out. He scored in double digits in all five tune-up games, despite Kerr toying with the lineup. No one else on the roster can claim that.
Steph Curry leads these odds at +350, but he may defer like LeBron will against South Sudan and Latvia. Edwards will not.
Curry and James have made their careers. This is icing on their cakes. Edwards still has marketability to escalate. He, quite frankly, may have more to gain from a Parisian star turn than anyone else on the U.S. roster.
Best bet: player with lowest average minutes played
Tyrese Haliburton +500
Haliburton is already out of Kerr’s rotation. Why? You would do best to ask Kerr, but one clear reality is the U.S. has a bounty of ballhandlers with better abilities to create their own shots than Haliburton. Steph Curry, Devin Booker, Anthony Edwards, and Derrick White all spend most or plenty of time on-ball in the NBA, and all are better at creating their own look than Haliburton is.
In the final two minutes of the Showcase, Haliburton logged just seven minutes. There are 11 players ahead of him in the rotation, 12 if Kevin Durant ever gets healthy.
White may lead these odds at +100, but he is a more well-rounded player than Haliburton. Bam Adebayo is also ahead at +300, but Adebayo is one of only three genuine big men on the roster. At some point, foul trouble alone should demand he log time.
Haliburton will get a gold medal and standing in the U.S. program out of this month, but little on the court.
Olympic men's basketball groups
| Group A | Group B | Group C |
|---|---|---|
 Australia |
 Brazil |
 Puerto Rico |
 Canada |
 France |
 Serbia |
 Greece |
 Germany |
 South Sudan |
 Spain |
 Japan |
 USA |
