Despite going 1-2 in Group A pool play, Australia remains alive as it gets set to take on Nikola Jokic and Serbia in the quarterfinals of the men’s Olympic basketball tournament.
With Serbia favored by 6.5 to 7.5 points, the Aussies are expected to struggle, and my Australia vs. Serbia predictions highlight why they’ll be overmatched.
Check out my Olympic men’s basketball picks for Tuesday, Aug. 6.
Serbia vs Australia prediction
My best bet
Serbia -6.5 (-110)
My analysis
After exploding for 92 points in a 12-point win over Spain to open the Olympics, Australia has steadily looked worse and worse the more it's played. It followed that win with a 10-point loss to Canada after leading at halftime and a 6-point loss to a Greece squad they were expected to beat.
The Aussies have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the tournament, and nothing highlights that better than the Greece game. They were outscored 28-12 in the second quarter and put themselves in a hole they couldn’t get out of despite outscoring Greece 59-49 in the other three quarters.
That’s the youth of this team showing with Josh Giddey and Dyson Daniels being such key pieces of this roster.
Against this Serbia squad, they should run into trouble quickly with this team being so experienced in FIBA play, having won silver at the basketball World Cup last year - and that was without Jokic.
With Jokic in the lineup, this team is nearly impossible to stop for the non-medal contending countries. While it did lose by 26 to Team USA to open Group C play, it blew both South Sudan and Puerto Rico out of the water.
The combo of Jokic and Bogdan Bogdanovic is lethal. Jokic is putting up 18.6 PPG, 11 RPG, and seven APG with Bogdanovic leading the team in scoring with 19 PPG. Australia doesn’t have the defenders to stop those two, especially Jokic.
Despite Jock Landale putting up impressive numbers for Australia, does anyone really expect an NBA bench player to stop a three-time NBA MVP? And the problem for the Aussies is the lack of size in the frontcourt, Landale is basically the only option to deal with Jokic.
And as everyone knows, even if you commit to slowing Jokic’s scoring, he’ll kill you as a passer. Serbia is poised for a big win.
Nikola makes a joke out of Australia
My Nikola Jokic prop: Over 18.5 rebounds + assists (-115)
The fun thing about this Serbia squad is that its best player doesn’t need to score to be the most impactful player on the court. Jokic has been eating up rebounds and making jaw-dropping passes like he’s prime Arvydas Sabonis.
Jokic is averaging a combined 18 rebounds and assists per game in the tournament, but those numbers are being brought down by his output against Team USA.
In Serbia’s other two games, he averaged 20.5 combined per game in 25 minutes per game, including 24 total against Puerto Rico the last time he was on the court.
Against this Australia team, he should be able to clean the boards with relative ease due to Landale being the only player over 6-foot-9 playing consistent minutes.
This past season in the NBA, Jokic put up 21.4 rebounds and assists per game, and Australia just isn’t equipped to stop such a unique player. In a do-or-die game, he should also see at least 30 minutes of play, which will help this Over hit.
He managed 24 rebounds and assists against Puerto Rico in just 23 minutes, so imagine what he can do in 30.
Serbia vs Australia same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 173.5
Bogdan Bogdanovic Over 17.5 points
Josh Giddey Over 30.5 pts/reb/ast
This Serbian squad has been so fun to watch because of its high-scoring ability. They’re coming off a 107-point showing and are averaging 95.6 PPG in the tournament.
Even in the loss to Team USA, they still managed 84 and shot 59% from the floor. With Jokic in the middle, he’s constantly creating mismatches and getting open looks for teammates.
One such teammate has been Bogdanovic, who had a 30-point game against South Sudan and is shooting 9-for-16 from behind the arc in the Olympics. He should be able to have a strong outing against Australia.
It’s not as if Australia’s defense has popped much, especially against NBA talent. The Boomers allowed 27 to Santi Aldama, 24 to RJ Barrett, and 20 to Giannis Antetokounmpo.
What’s helped keep them in games is Giddey putting up huge numbers. He’s averaging 15 PPG, 8.6 RPG, and 6.6 APG (30.2) and has finished with Over 30.5 combined in two of three games.
While Serbia is in a position to win this one and cover, the defense has been inconsistent at times and Giddey should turn in an impressive performance.
In Serbia’s win over South Sudan, it allowed 85 points, and point guard Carlik Jones ended up with 32 combined points, rebounds, and assists.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Serbia vs Australia odds
| Serbia | Australia | |
| -7.5 | Spread | +7.5 |
| -320 | Moneyline | +260 |
| Over 174.5 (-105) | Total | Under 174.5 (-115) |
Odds as of 8-5.
Serbia vs Australia game info
| Location: | Accor Arena, Paris, France |
| Date: | Tuesday, 8-6-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 8:30 a.m. ET |
| TV: | CBC, TSN |
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