In the simplest terms for Serbia and South Sudan, it’s win and you’re into the quarterfinals of the men’s basketball tournament when they close out Group C play at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games on Saturday.
The loser won’t necessarily be out but will need to sweat a berth as one of two third-place teams to make it to the knockout stage. Serbia is heavily favored to advance, pegged as 15.5-point favorites in the Olympic basketball odds.
Check out our Serbia vs. South Sudan predictions below, complete with our free betting picks.
Serbia vs South Sudan prediction
My best bet
South Sudan +15.5 (-110)
My analysis
The Serbians have been on opposite ends of a beatdown in Paris. They opened with a 110-84 thumping at the hands of the Americans, unable to stay within range after falling behind by nine points at the half.
Serbia returned the favor last game, though, crushing Puerto Rico 107-66 to set up this win-and-in scenario.
One glaring weakness for this roster is 3-point shooting, currently the worst at the Olympics. Serbia hit just 6-for-21 against Puerto Rico and have posted a 25.9% clip through two games. No other team in the field is shooting under 31%.
Their strength so far has been the standout play of star Nikola Jokic and a strong rebounding attack. They’ve produced double-digit offensive rebounds in both games and rank second in rebounds per game at the Olympics.
The problem is South Sudan should be able to hold its own on the glass, as they rank first in Paris in both overall rebounding at 48 per game and crashing the offensive glass, averaging a juicy 17 per contest.
South Sudan’s 3-point shooting ranks in the top half of teams too, hitting at a stout 36.2% on 29 attempts per game.
After nearly upsetting the Americans in an exhibition game, their rematch in Group C was never close after USA built a 12-point lead after a quarter, which bulged to 19 by half in an eventual 103-86 decision. South Sudan coughed it up 19 times, and they are tied for second-most turnovers per game in Paris at 17 per game.
While it’s hard to pick South Sudan to win its way into the knockout stage at the Olympics against the all-world Jokic, these 15.5 points are too enticing to pass up. Assuming they can rebound at their Olympic rate, and Serbia still can’t find the range, expect South Sudan to keep things close.
Joke's on you
My Nikola Jokic prop: Over 7.5 assists (-111)
Everything that Jokic does well at an MVP level in the NBA translates for his home country.
He took just seven shots against Puerto Rico, but still filled the stat sheet with 14 points, 15 rebounds and nine assists. He had 20 points vs. Team USA with five boards and eight assists.
His ability to pass the ball is one of the most lethal components of his game and has allowed Serbia some semblance of offensive flow, even if they haven’t been able to shoot the ball from distance. With Jokic’s assist line set at 7.5, below what he’s done in each of the first two games, take the big man to again keep his teammates well fed.
Serbia vs South Sudan same-game parlay (SGP)
South Sudan +15.5
Nikola Jokic Under 10.5 rebounds
Carlik Jones Over 17.5 points
While Jokic will be dictating on offense, South Sudan’s length and athleticism might be a bit much for him in the battle of the boards, where his line is set at 10.5 for Saturday.
South Sudan is not the United States, but swarming defense and gang rebounding is something Royal Ivey’s guys can emulate, making it tough for Jokic in the paint. Serbia is the second-best offensive rebounding team in Paris, but South Sudan is the top offensive and defensive rebounding unit.
This feels more like a game Jokic will need to score to get his nation to advance, which should eat up some of his glass work.
Carlik Jones is the only non-NBA player sitting in the Top 10 in scoring at the Olympics, putting up a solid 18.5 points per game on 44.1% shooting. He went for 18 against the U.S. after dropping 19 against Puerto Rico in South Sudan’s tourney opener.
Jones has done this with almost no production from beyond the arc, shooting just 2-for-8 from 3-point range in two games. Expect South Sudan’s leading scorer to show up in their nation’s most important basketball game.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Serbia vs South Sudan odds
| Serbia | South Sudan | |
| -14.5 (-110) | Spread | +14.5 (-110) |
| -1,100 | Moneyline | +675 |
| Over 178.5 (-110) | Total | Under 178.5 (-110) |
Odds as of 8-2.
Serbia vs South Sudan game info
| Location: | Pierre Mauroy Stadium, Villeneuve d'Ascq, France |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-3-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Peacock |
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