Spain vs Greece Odds, Picks & Predictions: Olympic Men’s Basketball

Is Giannis Antetokounmpo enough to propel Greece through the group play round of the 2024 Olympics? 

The Greeks have less NBA experience on their roster than each of the other three teams in Group A, but they're still favored against Spain.

Trusting Greece as a four-point favorite may be worrisome, given the overall talent disparity, but that is just the edge Giannis provides. My Spain vs. Greece predictions will indeed back the Greek Freak & Co. on July 30.

Spain vs Greece prediction

My best bet
Greece -4 (-108)

My analysis
Greece would not let Group A favorite Canada pull away on Saturday, entering the fourth quarter down by eight before getting within two points in the final minute. That showing is the basis of this bet.

The Canadians have the second-deepest roster in these Olympics, behind only and obviously Team USA. However, they could hardly contain Antetokounmpo, who has led his country to its first ever Olympics appearance. Giannis had 34 points on 11-for-17 shooting, relentlessly getting to the hoop.

He played that efficiently despite Canada possessing two of the most physical wing defenders in the world in Lu Dort and Dillon Brooks — along with NBA names at the rim in Dwight Powell and Kelly Olynyk.

Spain lacks that defense. The Spaniards have a couple of former NBA-caliber bigs in Willy and Juancho Hernangomez — along with Memphis Grizzlies forward Santi Aldama — but they'll struggle to slow Giannis before he has gained too much steam. 

The intent with him is to cut him off on the perimeter. Once Antetokounmpo has momentum going toward the rim, neither Hernangomez brother will be able to stop him.

Unless 39-year-old Rudy Fernandez finds the fountain of youth this week, Spain will not cut off Giannis in time.

An efficient offense like that should be enough to elevate Greece to a win. Covering the two-bucket spread will be less of a worry in the Olympics than in usual competitions, given the margin of victory could factor into advancing out of the group stage.

Greek Freak goes crazy

My Giannis Antetokounmpo prop: Over 29.5 points (-104)

Spain struggled out of the gates against Australia on Saturday, falling behind 31-21 in the first quarter en route to a 12-point loss. Much of the problem originated in the paint.

In that first frame alone, Aussie center Jock Landale had five points at the rim and dished out three assists. Landale had more teammates to move the ball to and is a better distributor than Antetokounmpo, but his success inside should translate.

Landale finished with 20 points on 9 of 14 shooting. With all due respect, he is nowhere near the talent of Giannis. Spain simply lacks the size to slow down the former NBA MVP.

Spain vs Greece same-game parlay (SGP)

Two teams that finish third in their groups will advance to the single-elimination tournament. That will most likely be determined by point differential.

If Greece can notch this win and then lose competitively against Australia — let’s just hypothetically suggest a four-point win and a four-point loss — the negative-seven differential could be enough to advance.

That will not be known until we approach the third set of group-play games at the end of the week. In the interim, the Greeks need to pour it on as long as they can.

Giannis knows this. He'll charge to the hoop until the final horn sounds, hoping to set up Greece to advance, be it via two wins yet this week or, more likely, via point differential.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Spain vs Greece odds

Odds as of 7-29.

Spain vs Greece game info

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