Though it wasn't without hiccups along the way, the USA are into the quarterfinals at the Olympics. Their reward, however, for finishing second in their group is a matchup with international powerhouse and reigning FIBA World Cup champions Spain in a rematch of their 2016 semifinal.
Which of these two 2016 medalists will crash out in the quarters in 2021? Check out our Spain vs. USA picks and predictions for August 3.
Spain vs USA game info
• Location: Saitama Super Arena, Saitama, Japan
• Date: Tuesday, August 3, 2021
• Time: 12:40 a.m. ET
• TV: Peacock (live), NBC (delay)
Spain vs USA betting tips
- Spain +12.5 (-110)
- Under 179.5 (+100)
Read on for complete analysis
Spain vs USA match odds
Spain: +12.5 (-110)
USA: -12.5 (-110)
Total: 178.5
Over 179.5: -120
Under 179.5: +100
Spain vs USA betting preview
Key injuries
Spain: No injuries to report.
USA: No injuries to report.
Spain vs USA predictions
Against the spread (ATS) pick
In 2019, thanks to France, Spain avoided facing the USA at the FIBA World Cup and became the first country besides the U.S. to win in nearly 15 years. They have rolled a similar roster back for the Olympics, with Marc Gasol, Rudy Fernandez, and a supercharged Ricky Rubio leading the way. Spain started strongly in group play but will be frustrated to have dropped the group-decider against Slovenia, as Luka Doncic put up a (relative) dud but the Spaniards couldn't hit anything.
The USA's tournament has happened almost inverse to Spain's, as they embarrassingly fell apart in their loss to France before blowing out Iran and handling the Czech Republic with ease. Kevin Durant and Jayson Tatum have carried the scoring load for the U.S., while the composure added by Jrue Holiday, since he was inserted into the lineup, has been crucial. Though Holiday isn't an elite facilitator, he has done an excellent job of getting the U.S. into their offense and calming concerns over the lack of a traditional point guard on the roster.
With composure has come comprehensive wins in their last two, as the USA have resembled the type of dominant team they are expected to be — regardless of the roster they choose. With wins by 54 and 35 points at the Olympics, the U.S. have covered sizable spreads of 23.5 against the Czech Republic and 38.5 against Iran. Both wins have seen them approach 40-point fourth quarters, as the benches empty and the roster's bucket-getters can do what they do best against beaten, overmatched opposition.
The Americans have a much smaller spread to cover this time, but on the flip side, Spain are too good and too proud to be down and out by the time the fourth quarter rolls around. Similar to their meeting in 2016, the U.S. should do enough to advance, but Spain are too experienced not to keep it close. Back the world champs to cover.
PICK: Spain +12.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Since the USA's Olympics-opening loss to France — in which the two went Under the 178.5 total — they have not only covered in two straight but hit the Over as well. It was largely a U.S.-led effort in the two Overs, as they limited opponents to 77.3 points per game (the third-lowest mark in the group stages) while pouring in 105 (behind just Doncic's Slovenia) in the group stage.
Spain, meanwhile, took a much more pragmatic approach throughout the group stage, as their methodical half-court offense and disciplined defense would suggest. Of the teams that progressed into the knockout round, only Italy averaged fewer points per game, while just France, the U.S., and Italy allowed fewer per game.
These two played to a total of 158 in 2016, as the Americans triumphed 82-76 in Brazil. The U.S., heavy on isolation scorers, and Spain, with Rubio orchestrating everything, both operate heavily in the half-court. Between that and what should be a tightly contested game from wire to wire, take the Under on the second-highest total the USA has seen this summer.
PICK: Under 179.5 (+100)
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