The host French will try to advance to the gold medal final in the women’s basketball tournament at the Paris 2024 Olympic Games on Friday. Standing in their way are the upstart Belgians, who have been building momentum after sneaking into the knockout stage.
France is pegged as 4.5-point favorites in the Olympic basketball odds.
With two of the highest scoring teams at Paris 2024 facing off, our France vs. Belgium predictions for August 9 are targeting a high-scoring affair.
France vs Belgium prediction
My best bet
Over 143.5 (-115)
My analysis
After opening with back-to-back double-digit losses to Germany and the United States to kick off their Olympic experience, Belgium has bent but not broken. They clubbed Japan 85-58 to advance out of the group stage, then thumped Spain 79-66 to make their way into the tournament’s final four.
Belgium is second only to the United States in scoring at Paris 2024, putting up 76.8 points per game while shooting a crisp 47.3% from the field. Their defense has improved as the wins have come. After allowing 85 points per game to fall to 0-2, Belgium has held the opposition to 62 points per contest over two wins.
France is no slouch offensively, just a shade back of Belgium in tournament scoring at 76.5 points per game while ranking fourth in shooting at 45.9% from the field. After going 2-1 in group play, beating up on Canada and Nigeria, while losing to Australia, France put up a solid performance in an 84-71 quarterfinal decision over Germany.
The French have won the turnover battle in every game, forcing the opposition to 20+ turnovers three times while coughing it up just 13.3 times on their end – the second-fewest of any participant in the 12-team field. That’s helped them hold their opponents to an average of 64.5 points per game, with a high of 79 allowed in their only loss of the tournament.
Belgium has found its stroke from downtown, going 17-for-40 over its last two wins, a sharp 42.5% clip. That should help loosen the French defense and keep them in a game where the hosts should be supercharged to play for gold.
Mighty Meesseman
My Emma Meesseman prop: Over 24.5 points (-113)
The tournament’s leading scorer is Belgium’s Emma Meesseman, who is putting up an impressive 24.5 points per game.
Meesseman missed going for at least 20 points for a fourth straight game in Paris, settling for 19 points to go along with nine boards and six assists in Belgium's quarterfinal win over Spain.
She’s been an equal opportunity bucket-getter. Meeseman has a tournament-high 30 in a must-win against Japan, but also held her own with 24 on 11-for-19 shooting against the powerhouse Americans.
France has allowed one 20-point scorer through the first four games of the tournament, but they will be hard-pressed to contain Meeseman. The 6-foot-4 Belgian star does relentless work inside, shooting a blistering 61.8% clip from the field. While that ranks 12th, she is doing it on 17 shots per game, with only one other player averaging double-digit attempts in the field ahead of her.
Meeseman should again be a force on Friday.
France vs Belgium same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 143.5
Marine Johannes Under 14.5 points
Emma Meeseman Over 6.5 rebounds
Perhaps no other player has had a more roller coaster of performances than France reserve guard Marine Johannes.
Johannes came off the bench to light Germany on fire for a tournament-best 24 points, including a 5-for-10 mark from downtown. That came after going for just nine points in the loss to Australia. She opened the tournament with seven points on 3-for-11 shooting against Canada, only to rebound with 15 points on 5-for-9 shooting against Nigeria.
If this short sample stays to form, Johannes may have trouble finding the range against Belgium.
Let’s wrap up this SGP with Meeseman’s board work, which has also vastly improved after the first two games. After pulling down six boards in two losses, Meeseman has 20 rebounds over the last two wins against Japan and Spain.
France is 11th in rebounding this tournament, grabbing 32.3 rebounds per contest, and just 23.3 on the defensive end. There’s room for Meeseman to make quick work of that relatively low 6.5-rebound line.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
France vs Belgium odds
| France | Belgium | |
| -4.5 (-115) | Spread | +4.5 (-105) |
| -205 | Moneyline | +164 |
| Over 143.5 (-115) | Total | Under 143.5 (-105) |
Odds as of 8-9.
France vs Belgium game info
| Location: | Bercy Arena, Paris, France |
| Date: | Friday, 8-9-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Peacock |
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