Nigeria vs USA Odds, Picks & Predictions: Olympic Women’s Basketball

Is the clock about to strike midnight on this year’s best Olympic Women’s Basketball story?

Nigeria made Olympic history when they fought their way out of a competitive Group B with upset wins over Australia and Canada, but their reward is a single elimination matchup with the titans of Team USA. 

The Americans looked vulnerable in spurts as they went 3-0 but were never seriously put in difficulty as they continue their seemingly inexorable march to the gold medal game.

My picks for Nigeria vs. USA predictions highlight one of Nigeria’s vulnerabilities and a prominent American bench player who figures to take advantage.

Nigeria vs USA prediction

My best bet
Alyssa Thomas Over 4.5 rebounds (-115)

My analysis

When outmatched in terms of raw talent, winning the math game becomes essential. That can take a few different forms: limiting your turnovers and generating steals, taking and making a high volume of threes, and outrebounding the opposition. 

While Nigeria is in the quarterfinal because of their ability to force turnovers and make perimeter shots, they have not done a great job on the glass during this tournament. 

They lost the rebounding battle emphatically to Canada and gave up a ton to Australia despite the Opals turning the ball over on every other possession. While they narrowly edged out France on the boards, that was probably as much to do with the fact that the French team simply could not miss.

They’ve more than made up for it in other areas of play, but to the keen-eyed, it has been a glaring weakness that nobody has fully taken advantage of.

Team USA is another step up in competition level on the glass, as they have been far and away the best rebounding team in the tournament. Their margins on the glass against Japan (+29), Belgium (+20), and Germany (+10) demonstrate the talent and size advantage they can flaunt on the boards.

That talent isn’t just about the starting unit either, as Alyssa Thomas has been coming off the bench and is one of the best rebounders in the world. In the WNBA, Thomas is a perennial MVP candidate who averages a hair under 10 boards per 36 minutes. For this star-studded American roster, she helps run the second unit, and she flipped the game against Germany with her physicality and unselfishness.

Thomas is averaging 5.7 rebounds through three games and has had at least five in every contest. With Nigeria struggling on the glass and Thomas making the most of her opportunities there, I feel there’s great value in taking her to get five again at this price.

Headline for player prop

My Breanna Stewart prop: Under 17.5 points (-115)

If we look at the men’s side of the bracket, there’s an instructive lesson about the difference between group play and the quarterfinal. In their game of the knockout rounds, nobody on Team USA scored 20 points as they overwhelmed a scrappy but severely out-talented Brazilian team. 

While the USA comfortably covered, they weren't overly concerned with squeezing out every ounce of possible value from their tentpole stars like Kevin Durant and LeBron James, as point differential is a thing of the past. Eyeing more difficult competition down the line, they rested some of their best (and oldest) players when the game was functionally decided.

The same principle is likely to hold here as the women's team squares off against Nigeria. While there may be one or two standout scorers, the lack of motivation to run through the tape and the probability that this game doesn’t require clutch plays suggest that Breanna Stewart is less likely to hit this number.

Stewart was limited in the lead-up to the Olympics, and she played just 17 minutes against Germany despite carrying the team in scoring in the first quarter. It’s clearly a priority of Cheryl Reeve’s staff to not overwork her if they can help it, and with the spread as high as -27.5, she seems likely to steal some rest for Stewie in the second half.

Nigeria vs USA same-game parlay (SGP)

While the leading scorers have been as varied as the opponents, the table setters for Team USA have begun to reveal themselves with a certain level of consistency. Sabrina Ionescu is chief among them. 

Ionescu has racked up five assists in all three games for Team USA so far, and every indication is that she is becoming more important to the functioning of the American offense in every game.

When Team USA went down 15-6 to begin the game against Germany, it was a couple of miscues by veteran Dianna Taurasi that stood out. Team USA has been (relatively) plagued by slow starts in this tournament, and that led to a second-half lineup change that sent DT to the bench in favor of Ionescu.

Although Ionescu is an off-guard, her playmaking is nothing to sneeze at. She injected a pace of play into Team USA that had a clear impact on the game, and she consistently beat her defender off the dribble to create advantages for the team.

Nigeria has some strong defensive guards, who have forced gobs of turnovers against previous opponents. If Taurasi or another Team USA guard struggles again with ball control, putting the ball in Sabrina’s hands more will continue to be the obvious remedy.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Nigeria vs USA odds

Odds as of 8-6.

Nigeria vs USA game info

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