It would take a wild imagination to script Canada’s Olympic experience so far, but they bring a 100% record into Saturday’s quarterfinal against Germany in Marseille.
The Canadians overcame a six-point penalty and the absence of their head coach to reach the last eight, while Germany recovered from a 4-1 thumping against the USWNT by cruising past Zambia in their final group game.
My Canada vs. Germany predictions weigh up this August 3 showdown and assess which of these teams will move a step closer to a medal.
Canada vs. Germany prediction and best bet
Les Rouges remain battle-tested
Match prediction
Canada to win (+220)
My analysis
Make no mistake, this is a talented German squad, spearheaded by Lea Schüller, who’s already netted three goals in this tournament. But it’s hard to look past the incredible character in this Canadian team, which has been bonded by a turbulent time at these Olympics.
As the odds suggest, these are two well-matched teams and both had eye-catching moments during the group stage. Still, I’m riding with the Canadians, who’ve come through huge tests on and off the field — and now get a fresh start as the knockout rounds begin.
The defending gold medalists have the benefit of continuity with most of the core that won gold in Tokyo, and they’re comfortable in tight, tense games, with all three group wins coming by a one-goal margin.
Canada did just enough to edge past Colombia on Wednesday, and I see them exposing some of the same German flaws we saw against the USWNT. Germany only had 44% of the possession that day and fell into a 3-1 half-time hole, though they produced a more polished performance against Zambia in midweek.
The Canadians will pose a threat out wide, with Ashley Lawrence and Janine Beckie bursting forward, and it will be worth monitoring how sharp German star Alexandra Popp looks in a deeper midfield role after picking up a knee injury in the loss to the US.
Canada have already stunned a highly-rated France team at this tournament, and I like these odds for Les Rouges to take another big European scalp here and close in on a podium spot.
Patience is a virtue
My best bet
Under 2.5 goals (+130)
My analysis
On one side, we’ve got a German team that scored eight goals during the group stage; on the other, a Canadian defense that’s only conceded twice.
While the odds hint at a scoring fest, I see this contest being played on Canada’s terms — slower and cagier, as you might expect from a knockout matchup.
Germany’s three games have all served up at least three goals, but Vanessa Gilles and Kadeisha Buchanan are a formidable pairing at the heart of the Canadian defense, with a tireless midfield in front of them. I expect Les Rouges’ solidity to frustrate the German forwards.
At the other end, Canada’s attackers have brought an impressive work rate but haven’t looked quite at their best, so it would be a surprise if they suddenly burst into life here. Instead, they’ve been willing to take a patient approach and graft their way to victories, with a noticeable threat at set pieces.
They haven’t had big contributions from Adriana Leon, who’s still looking for her first goal at these Olympics, and it’s been center-back Gilles who’s risen to the occasion with the winning goal in consecutive games.
The first goal will be huge at the Orange Velodrome on Saturday, with Canada especially well-equipped to hold onto a lead. I’m jumping on these plus odds for Under 2.5 goals across the 90 minutes — and potentially a repeat of the Canadians’ 1-0 victory in midweek.
Canada vs Germany odds
- Spread: Canada +0.5 (-150) | Germany -0.5 (+110)
- Moneyline: Canada +220 | Germany +120
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 (-160) | Under 2.5 (+125)
Canada vs Germany game info
| Location: | Orange Vélodrome, Marseille, France |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-3-2024 |
| Time: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBC, Peacock |
Play at Covers’ best-rated betting sites
The availability of Olympic-related wagers will vary by each sportsbook, but see our list of best sports betting sites for the top — and safest — online betting experiences.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
