The United States women’s soccer team looks to begin the path to a fifth Olympic gold medal when they host Zambia today.
Emma Hayes has gotten off to a strong start as USWNT manager, and three points are a must in one of the competition’s toughest groups. But Zambia participated in the 2023 Women’s World Cup and will be looking for their first-ever victory at the Olympics.
Find out why that’s unlikely to happen in our United States vs Zambia predictions for Thursday, July 25.
USA vs Zambia prediction and best bet
American exceptionalism
Match prediction
United States moneyline (-1,800)
My analysis
While I would not recommend betting it, the United States will win. The odds reflect just how one-sided this match is expected to be, and it makes sense when you look at the two rosters.
Zambia has some talent in their squad. Racheal Kundananji and Barbra Banda will lead the line in a 4-3-3 setup, but they will be without starting midfielder Evarine Katongo due to injury. Their defense features multiple starters who do not even currently have a professional club for which they play.
On the other side, the USWNT features a front line that will be without Alex Morgan for the first time in over a decade. The attacking trio of Sophia Smith, Trinity Rodman, and Mallory Swanson will put fear into the hearts of this Zambian defense, and behind them is a slew of veterans with speed, strength, and technical ability.
Since Hayes has taken over, the Americans are unbeaten in four matches with three victories in that span. With a group that features Germany and Australia — both ranked in the Top 12 in the FIFA world rankings — a victory is paramount.
The USWNT won’t mess around. Zambia have struggled this year, and they won’t pose much of a threat in this one.
An unrelenting attack
My best bet
Over 2.5 goals and Both teams to score - No (+105)
My analysis
The upcoming two fixtures for the USA in this group will be tough, and goal differential could come into play for the final placement of teams in the table. That’s why I expect the Americans to push for goals here, as is the market.
The spread for this match is USA -3.25, which indicates the betting markets are expecting a blowout. But they’re also looking for a clean sheet, with both teams to score set to well over -200 for the No option.
That’s why I love the play here for at least three goals in the match with only one side scoring. Since she’s taken over, Hayes has implemented an aggressive defensive setup with an emphasis on winning back the ball quickly while limiting counter-attacks.
And it’s worked wonders. In their wins over South Korea, they scored seven goals without conceding any. And in their recent warm-ups with Mexico and Costa Rica, they also kept clean sheets. And over the four matches, they’ve conceded just five shots on target.
At last year’s Women’s World Cup, Zambia faced two Top-10 nations in Japan and Spain. They fell by identical 5-0 scorelines in each and didn’t even register a shot in the loss to Japan.
While I don’t know if the United States will score five goals, I have little doubt they will bag at least three while keeping Zambia’s attack fully at bay. Back the Americans to have a dominant performance as they look to kick off the 2024 Paris Olympics in style.
USA vs Zambia odds
| USA | Zambia | |
|---|---|---|
| -2,000 | Moneyline | +3,000 |
| Over 3.5 (-105) | Total | Under 3.5 (-125) |
| +1,500 | Draw | +1,500 |
USA vs Zambia game info
| Location: | Allainz Riviera, Paris, France |
| Date: | Thursday, 7-24-2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | USA Network |
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