The 2023 major championship season has come to a close after a dominant Brian Harman (!) performance at Hoylake, but the FedEx Cup Playoffs are just a couple of weeks away and there's still some important golf to be played.
This final stretch kicks off with the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Minnesota, where guys sitting outside the Top 70 on the FedEx Cup Points list will look to get inside the line ahead of the first playoff event from Aug. 10-13.
The most notable outsider heading into the week is two-time major winner Justin Thomas, who's been in a dry spell this summer but enters the week among the favorites at 20/1.
We break down his chances in our full 3M Open betting preview below, including live golf odds and free golf picks.
Live odds to win 2023 3M Open
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3M Open picks and predictions
Emiliano Grillo Top 20 (+163)
What would your reaction be if I told you Emiliano Grillo was the best player in the field this week?
Statistically speaking, that may actually be the case considering he leads this week’s field in total strokes gained over the last three months. He also impressively ranks third in strokes gained approach and sixth in putting over that stretch.
That stellar play manifested itself in a win at the Charles Schwab back in May and while he’s been hit or miss since then, he’s fresh off a T6 at Royal Liveprool and comes to a place he’s enjoyed a ton of success.
He finished runner-up here a year ago — thanks to Top-10 ranks in strokes gained tee-to-green, on approach, and off-the-tee — and also finished T3 here in his 2020 debut.
Combine that track record with the momentum from his Hoylake finish and a relatively light field and you get the recipe for another quality finish.
Pick: Emiliano Grillo Top 20 (+163 at Unibet)
Justin Thomas Top 20 (+175)
Can I interest you in a former World No. 1 who’s missed four of his last six cuts, didn’t finish better than T65 in a major this season, and currently sits outside of the FedEx Cup Playoff race?
Look, JT’s season has been one of the more shocking developments considering he won his second PGA Championship just 14 months ago, but this price — along with the strength of the field — has me zagging on his prospects this week.
Aside from a T9 finish at the Travelers a month ago, there’s nothing about his recent form that suggests he’ll flip a switch. He also hasn’t played this event before... because he’s never had to.
With that said, we’re talking about one of the five best talents this sport has to offer. There will be a major-like level of desperation and focus as he looks to secure a spot in Memphis as another bad week would all but slam the door on his chances.
I’d also note that his T9 at the Travelers came the week after a 73-81 missed cut at the U.S. Open, proving the good golf is closer than it may appear.
Might he make the cut on the number and finish… say… T54? Maybe. However, a desperate JT in a thin field should lend itself to a result much better than that.
Pick: Justin Thomas Top 20 (+175 at Unibet)
3M Open field and favorites
As mentioned at the onset, all eyes will be on Justin Thomas this week, who's fallen to No. 24 in the world after missing four of his last six cuts. That includes the Open Championship last week in which he shot an opening-round 82 and missed the weekend by eight.
The good news is that he sits just a few spots out of the Top 70 (75th) and is a decent week away from getting back inside the line. He's fourth on the board at 20/1.
The betting favorite this week, however, is defending champion Tony Finau (+1,200), who came from five shots back on Sunday to win here a season ago. That victory ended a nearly five-year drought and while he's piled up three wins since, he's missed back-to-back cuts and enters the week out of form.
Second on the board is Cameron Young at 14/1. The 2022 Rookie of the Year followed up a T6 at the John Deere with a T8 at the British Open in which he was solo second after 54 holes. With a lighter field, this may be the perfect opportunity for Cam to snatch his first career win.
The top tier also features Hideki Matsuyama at 18/1 (T13 last week), Sungjae Im at 20/1 (T20), and Emiliano Grillo at 25/1 (T6).
2021 3M Open winner Cameron Champ is also in the field and available at 70/1. He finished T17 at the Barracuda Championship last week.
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3M Open recent winners and odds history
Let's take a look at some recent 3M Open winners and their closing odds to win:
| Year | Golfer | Closing odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Tony Finau | +1,400 |
| 2021 | Cameron Champ | +12,500 |
| 2020 | Michael Thompson | +12,500 |
| 2019 | Matthew Wolff | +12,500 |
Odds courtesy of GolfOdds.
3M Open Odds FAQs
Tony Finau is the betting favorite to win the 2023 3M Open at +1,200 with Cameron Young close behind at +1,400.
Tony Finau won last year's tournament by three shots and is the favorite to repeat in 2023 (+1,200).
The 3M Open is held at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota from July 27-30.
The total payout at the 2023 3M Open is $7.8 million, with the winner taking home $1.4 million.
