This Tuesday, Ajax and Benfica meet in the Johann Cruyff Arena with both sides battling for a spot in the Champions League quarterfinal draw.
The first leg of this game was a hugely entertaining spectacle which ultimately finished 2-2.
Away goals no longer count in the Champions League so we’ll all square as this game heads to Amsterdam for the second leg. Read our Ajax vs. Benfica tips and predictions.
Ajax vs Benfica match odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Compare Champions League odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Ajax vs Benfica betting tips
Predictions made on 3/14/2022 at 5:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Ajax vs Benfica game info
• Location: Amsterdam Arena, Amsterdam, Netherlands
• Date: Tuesday, March 15, 2022
• Time: 4:00 p.m. ET
• TV: DAZN, Paramount+
Ajax vs Benfica betting preview
Weather
Temperatures will be just below 50 degrees when this game kicks off at 9:00 p.m. local time in Amsterdam. It’ll have been a dry and sunny day so we should have perfect conditions when kick-off comes.
Injuries
Ajax: Sean Klaiber RB (Out), Mohamed Ihattaren MF (Out).
Benfica: Rodrigo Pinho CF (Out), Lucas Verissimo CB (Out), Haris Seferovic CF (Out).
Ajax vs Benfica predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Side analysis
Tuesday’s game between Ajax and Benfica takes on a new light given the rule changes in the Champions League this year. Now that UEFA has gotten rid of the away goals rule it means this game is even and the two goals that the Dutch team scored on the road no longer give them an advantage.
Now with this game being played at the Johann Cruyff Arena, both teams will need to go on the offensive and look to score. The first leg was a real humdinger with the game finishing 2-2. Ajax took a lead into halftime through goals by Dusan Tadic and Sebastien Haller before a 72nd-minute equalizer for Benfica from Roman Yaremchuk.
Ajax had 60% of possession in that first leg and had eight shots on target but it was the Portuguese who had more shots on goal in total. Both teams came into this Round of 16 game with huge confidence following great performances in the group stages of the Champions League.
Benfica finished second in Group E and although they only had two wins, in addition to two draws and two defeats, they managed to finish ahead of Spanish giants Barcelona and behind Bayern Munich, a huge boost for the players.
Ajax might not have had such a strong group but they topped it, winning all six games. They scored 20 goals giving up just five and managed to get past Dortmund and Sporting Lisbon, who sit ahead of Tuesday’s opponents Benfica in the Primeira Liga.
Both teams have strong attacking players, with Benfica the second-highest scorers with 66 goals in their domestic league while Ajax has scored 77 goals in just 26 games in the Eredivisie, 14 more goals than its nearest rival.
Ajax’s goals come from all over their attack but it’s Sebastien Haller who leads their front line. He’s already scored 33 goals this season with 11 of those coming in Champions League fixtures. After a disappointing spell at West Ham in which he failed to live up to expectations, he’s now full of confidence and back amongst the goals. He’s a smart finisher with great movement as well as his trademark dominance in the air.
Erik ten Hag, one of the most in-demand managers in the game, has created a fantastically talented and well-drilled team. They play the game to his specifications and are a joy to watch.
On Tuesday they’ll line up in a 4-2-3-1 with Dusan Tadic, Anthony and Steven Berghuis behind the towering Haller. Tadic is the master of assists, already racking up 15 this season and developing a great relationship with Haller.
He’ll be optimized down the left with Anthony playing on the right. The 22-year-old looks like the latest Brazilian to be coming off the production line in the Eredivisie and is known for his dribbling and dynamic passing.
Benfica’s lineup features plenty of familiar names to fans of the Premier League, with the likes of Adel Taarabt, Jan Vertonghen, and Nicolas Otamendi amongst those likely to start.
Taarabt, a true ‘streets won’t forget’ icon will have a tough game against Ajax’s Ryan Gravenberch and Edson Alvarez. Despite a good result in the first leg, this will be a tough ask at the Johan Cruyff Arena.
On home turf and in fine form, you’d expect to see Ajax secure their place in the quarterfinals of the Champions League. They have a talented team that features a mix of up-and-coming stars and experienced old heads such as Daley Blind.
With Erik ten Hag likely to move to pastures new this season a deep run in the Champions League would be the perfect way to say goodbye.
An Ajax win is the most likely result here but with odds of -250, I think there’s far better value to be had out there.
Prediction: Ajax (-250)
Over/Under analysis
Unfortunately, I’m going to be suggested another wager here that doesn’t have the most attractive odds. With odds of -275, it’s not going to win you much but it’s really hard to look at these two teams and think that anything else could happen.
Taking aside the first game, which finished 2-2, the form indicates a high-scoring clash. Ajax games averaged over four goals per game in the group stages and even Benfica are averaging 2.66 goals per game.
If you look at their domestic form, it also points towards goals here. 69.2% of Benfica’s away games have seen Over 2.5 goals as have a huge 84.6% of Ajax’s Eredivisie games at the Johann Cruyff Arena. Don’t overthink it.
Prediction: Over 2.5 (-275)
Best bet
We’ve already touched upon the brilliance of Sebastien Haller but it really can’t be understated how important the Ivory Coast international is for Ajax.
His seven Champions League appearances, one of which was from the bench, have resulted in 11 goals. He has taken an average of 3.1 shots per game and is always looking to score. He’s one goal behind Bayern Munich’s Robert Lewandowski who has 12 goals in one more game.
He’s in brilliant form and comes into this game having scored three in his past two games. If you look back throughout the season he quite often scores in bulk, scoring two or more goals on eight occasions.
Given his form against Benfica, notching in the first leg, he should have plenty of opportunities to score two or more goals here.
Pick: Sebastien Haller to score 2+ goals (+275)
