Thursday sees Arsenal host Wolves in a Premier League clash that is hugely important to both teams. Arsenal sit sixth in the Premier League and have been praised as turning a corner, but Wolves are just two points behind them and have quietly been going about their business.
Can Wolves leapfrog Arsenal by winning at the Emirates? Don’t miss our Arsenal vs. Wolves soccer picks and predictions for Thursday, February 24.
Arsenal vs Wolves match odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Arsenal vs Wolves betting tips
Predictions made on 2/23/2022 at 10:40 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Arsenal vs Wolves game info
• Location: Emirates Stadium, London, UK
• Date: Thursday, February 24, 2022
• Time: 2:45 p.m. ET
• TV: Peacock
Arsenal vs Wolves betting preview
Weather
There’ll be rain in London on the morning of this match, but by kick-off at 7:45 p.m. local time, that will have given way to sun, although temperatures will still be in the 40s.
Injuries
Arsenal: No injuries to report.
Wolves: Willy Boly CB (Out), Yerson Mosquera CB (Out).
Arsenal vs Wolves predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Side analysis
Arsenal welcome Wolves to the Emirates on Thursday with both teams in close proximity in the Premier League table. A win for the home side can take them within striking distance of Man United and their spot in fourth, on the flip side they could find themselves leapfrogged by Wolves if the away side claims the three points.
There’s been a lot of positivity around Arsenal as the season has progressed. Mikel Arteta’s team have overcome a tricky start to the season — in which many called for the manager’s head — and are now in contention to win a place in next season’s Champions League.
All this has seen the fanbase declare their “banter era” over as they start to believe in the Arteta project. It’s undeniable that there have been improvements, and for the first time in many years you get the idea that there is a philosophy and ideology behind the Gunners’ play.
In stark contrast to the loud praise for Arteta across the media landscape has been the silence around the job that Bruno Lage has done at Wolverhampton Wanderers since taking over the job in the summer.
Wolves finished 13th last year and looked devoid of the enthusiasm that saw them play so well when they made their Premier League bow in the 2018/19 season. Bruno Lage has helped bring back those good times by creating a team that are incredibly hard to beat. When you watch Wolves play, you’re struck by how tight and compact they are in defense and how hard they are for the opposition to break down.
In fact, they are tied for the second-best defensive record in the entire Premier League, having allowed just 18 goals all season, knotted with Chelsea and only one behind Manchester City. They have managed to allow eight less goals than Thursday’s opponents, Arsenal, despite having played one more game. This is a team in elite company and the organization that Lage has helped install has been incredible.
Goals have been harder to come by for the Midlands club, managing just 23 in 24 games so far in the Premier League. That’s something they will need to improve on if they want to compete for that fourth spot. Despite a superior defensive record, they have scored eight fewer goals than Spurs, 13 less than Arsenal, 21 less than Man Utd, and 22 less than West Ham.
Playing at their home ground and in good form, it’s no surprise that Arsenal are favorites with the sportsbooks, but an odds of -163, I just can’t back the Gunners. That implies a 62% chance that they win, and against a team who are so good defensively, that’s not very appealing.
Arsenal will need Bukayo Saka to continue his great form if they’re to have any chance of taking three points from this game. The young Englishman is likely to be alongside Martin Odegaard and either Emile Smith-Rowe or Gabriel Martinelli in supporting Alexandre Lacazette, who’ll be playing through the middle.
We know that Wolves will set up in their 3-5-2 formation and try to keep things tight and sneak a goal if possible. That’s the way they tried to play when these teams met earlier in the month and Arsenal escaped with a narrow 1-0 victory. I feel like there’s a lot more value in backing the draw at +300 than any other result for this game, and it’s one that both teams would probably leave happy with.
Prediction: Draw (+300)
Over/Under analysis
We’ve spoken in-depth about Wolves’ fantastic defensive performances this year, but there also needs to be credit for Arsenal too, who have conceded just 26 goals in 23 games. They look far better at the back than last year, in that they’re managing to keep clean sheets while not totally giving up on attack, something it seemed like they were doing last season.
At home Under 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Arsenal’s games, but when you look at Wolves’ record on the road it’s clear that backing the Under is the play. Under 2.5 goals has landed in 83.3% of their away games this season, with three or more goals only occurring on two occasions.
Prediction: Under 2.5 Goals (-138)
Best bet
I wasn’t sure which way to go for best bet in this game. On the one hand I wanted to back the Under 2.5 goals because I’m so confident in it happening, potentially even the correct score of 1-1 (+750) and I also love the odds on Ruben Neves getting booked.
The Portuguese midfielder has nine yellow cards in the Premier League this season, picking up a booking nearly every other game. He’ll be sat in the middle of that Wolves midfield trying to deal with the pressure of their four attacking talents and is good value at +162 to find his name in Martin Atkinson’s book.
Despite that price, I simply can’t recommend anything more than Under 2.5 goals for this game. I don’t like the term ‘must bet’ because the unpredictable can happen in sport, but this feels like a very generous price given it’s likelihood. As always, I’d recommend caution, but everything points towards us seeing less than three goals on Thursday.
Given Wolves’ away record, and the scoreline in the previous meeting between these teams, we have to take Under 2.5 goals here.
Pick: Under 2.5 goals (-138)
