Aston Villa vs Everton Predictions & Picks for Saturday’s EPL Matchup

Sam Farley sees Everton only being able to keep the floodgates closed for so long on the road vs. a top-notch Aston Villa attack. Expect goals to pour forth in the second half on Saturday.

Sam Farley - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Sep 12, 2024 • 09:00 ET • 4 min read
Onana Aston Villa EPL
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The international break is over and Saturday’s Premier League slate features Aston Villa vs. Everton at Villa Park. 

Villa come into this having made a good start to their Premier League season at 2-0-1. The same can’t be said for Everton, who have yet to pick up a point. 

Make sure you read my Aston Villa vs. Everton predictions and free betting picks to see why I believe things will open up in the second half on September 14.

EPL predictions for Aston Villa vs Everton

My best bet:
Second half to have most goals (-110 at Betano)

My analysis

Everton have narrowly avoided getting relegated each season for a number of years and there’s a growing feeling that perhaps their luck is beginning to run out, something which could be catastrophic financially with the club moving into their new stadium next season. Everton are one of just two clubs yet to pick up a point, alongside Southampton.

The big worry for Everton is that they’ve given up 10 goals already, with Brighton, Tottenham, and Bournemouth all scoring at least three against their defense.

Aston Villa come into this in good form. They’ve won two of three but given that their loss was against Arsenal, it puts their record into a more positive light.

They did well to beat West Ham and have shown in these games that they have a number of attacking talents that they can bring on from the bench, a depth of options that they’ve not always had.

A high-scoring game is very much possible, but both team’s second-half records make seeing goals in the final 45 look far more likely. Villa have seen five second-half goals compared with three in the first halves of games, while Everton have seen nine second half goals in just three games, of which seven were in the back of their own net.

Everton are yet to score on the road, while all four of Villa’s goals have come at Villa Park. We might get a goal in the first half but given Everton’s defense and Villa’s home form, we’re likely to see multiple in the second half.

Aston Villa vs Everton same-game parlay (SGP)

Aston Villa -1

Over 8.5 corners

Tim Iroegbunam to get a card

With my best bet not being eligible for the SGP, I’m going to back Aston Villa -1. Everton have been bad in front of goal, scoring just twice this season and giving up 10 goals in three games, whereas Aston Villa have some top attacking talent.

I’m also going to back Over 8.5 corners in the game. Villa have averaged six corners (for and against) per game but that number will likely increase here against an Everton team who have seen an average of over 11 corners per game.

Finally. I’m going to bet on Everton’s Tim Iroegbunam to get booked. The young Englishman has started all three Premier League games, averaging a huge three fouls committed per game. 

He’s only got the one card so far this season, but he’ll be primed to pick up more if he continues fouling at anywhere near that rate.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Aston Villa vs Everton odds

Aston Villa vs Everton live odds

Aston Villa vs Everton opening odds

  • Moneyline: Aston Villa -238 | Everton +650
  • Draw: +333
  • Over/Under: Over 2.5 | Under 2.5

Aston Villa vs Everton side and Over/Under analysis

  • Two of Villa’s three games have hit Over 2.5 goals, and all three of Everton’s Premier League games have as well.
  • Everton have lost all three league games so far.
  • Villa have won four of the past five Premier League games between the clubs at Villa Park.

Aston Villa vs Everton game info

Location: Villa Park, Birmingham, UK
Date: Saturday, 9-14-2024
Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
TV: Peacock
Weather: 64F, 11 mph winds, 10% PoP
Aston Villa  recent EPL form W-L-W
Everton  recent EPL form L-L-L

Aston Villa vs Everton key injuries

Aston Villa: Matty Cash FB (Out), Diego Carlos (Questionable), Tyrone Mings CB (Out), Leon Bailey FWR (Out), Boubacar Kamara CM (Questionable), Jaden Philogene FWR (Questionable), Ollie Watkins STR (Questionable).
Everton: Jarrad Branthwaite CB (Out), Nathan Patterson FB (Out), Armando Broja STR (Out).

Not intended for use in MA.
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Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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