Two teams will look for three vital points in their push for a Top 4 finish as Aston Villa welcomes Manchester United to Villa Park on Sunday. Our Premier League odds have the home side favored to take the win.
Aston Villa will be hoping to get back to winning ways at home, as they’ve followed a lengthy home unbeaten run with a pair of defeats. Their 3-1 defeat to Newcastle two weeks ago was followed by a loss to Chelsea this week in the FA Cup. Unai Emery knows his side needs to pick up points to remain in the Champions League places.
Erik ten Hag has seen his Manchester United side mount a charge over the past month and a half, and the Red Devils now sit in sixth entering the weekend. They’re just eight points back of Villa with 15 matches remaining and will hope for a fifth victory in six across all competitions ahead of a very friendly run of fixtures.
Our Aston Villa vs. Manchester United picks and predictions for February 11 dive into this showdown and back a player in outstanding form to stay hot.
Aston Villa vs Manchester United best odds
EPL predictions for Aston Villa vs Manchester United
Since teams returned to play after Christmas, there’s been a switch flipped for Manchester United — and it began in the second half of the reverse fixture against Aston Villa.
Trailing 2-0 at the half and looking for all the world to be headed towards their fifth match without a victory on the trot, the Red Devils took advantage of Villa, continuing to play with a high line and began exploiting the spaces behind them.
Alejandro Garnacho scored a pair of goals over a 12-minute span to level the sides, but it was Rasmus Hojlund’s 82nd-minute goal that gave them the win. The goal was also Hojlund’s first Premier League tally since joining the club this summer, and his emotional celebration showed just how much weight had been lifted off his shoulders.
And now that he’s gotten his first, Hojlund simply can’t stop scoring. His goal last weekend against West Ham made him the youngest player in club history to score in four consecutive Manchester United matches. He’s also registered two assists in his last three league outings.
The combination play of Hojlund, Garnacho, and Marcus Rashford over the past six weeks has changed how Man United play, and it’s led to them scoring two or more goals in five consecutive matches across all competitions. In fact, the only match over their last seven they failed to do so was also their only defeat — when Hojlund missed the match against Nottingham Forest.
Prior to that Boxing Day win over Villa, the Red Devils had gone four straight matches without a single goal, and you had to go back to mid-October to find the last time they had back-to-back fixtures with multiple goals.
Hojlund’s ability to convert chances is a key reason for that success. During this four-match goal-scoring streak in league play, he’s been involved in six goals, has converted 66.7% of his shot attempts, and has torn teams up in space with his blistering pace.
Hojlund has also registered 20 touches in the box over those four matches. To put that in perspective, he had totaled just 42 in his previous 13 league outings.
Villa love to play a high line, and the speedy trio up top for Man United showed what they can do if given that space in the reverse fixture. Chelsea took advantage of it as well in the FA Cup this week, putting three goals past them and creating numerous opportunities.
Given that fact, I’m not about to pass up the price TonyBet has on offer for Hojlund to continue his purple patch. Take Hojlund to score anytime at +260, and look for him to make it five straight Premier League matches with a goal to his name.
My best bet: Rasmus Hojlund anytime goalscorer (+260 at TonyBet)
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Aston Villa vs Manchester United same-game parlay
Rasmus Hojlund anytime goalscorer
Alejandro Garnacho to score or assist
Both teams to score — Yes
Garnacho ranks in the 93rd percentile of all Premier League players with 3.10 shots per match, and he’s averaging nearly four shot-creating actions per 90 minutes. Over his last five Premier League matches, Garnacho's registered a total of 22 shot-creating actions and has either scored or assisted on five goals. We’ll back him to notch one of those here.
Man United’s clean sheet against West Ham was their first in the Premier League since before Christmas, and with Martinez missing out on one, it’s hard to see them getting another. Aston Villa’s high line makes it unlikely they’ll keep one either, so we’ll take both teams to find the back of the net in this one.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Aston Villa vs Manchester United side and Over/Under analysis
Aston Villa are favored at home on the 3-way line, but their price has gone from near even money a week ago to +120 heading into Saturday. The draw has dipped from +300 to +285, while Manchester United are listed at +220.
Martinez will miss out, and Aaron Wan-Bissaka left training midweek and is set to be absent for Man United. The hosts will be missing Tyrone Mings, with Lucas Digne possibly making the bench.
Man United are in excellent form, but they’ve managed just 16 points from 11 away trips this season. Villa, for their recent home struggles, have the third-most points in the league on home turf, and will likely rotate the squad after their disappointing showing against Chelsea. I could justify any result in this one, which is what makes live betting my plan of attack here.
What I am willing to predict is that we will see plenty of goals, and the public agrees. You’ll lay heavy juice to play Over 2.5 goals, with a price of -175 or higher across the board, while Over 3.0 goals on the Asian line is even priced around -135.
Villa have scored 30 goals in 11 home fixtures this season and boast the third-most goals in the league heading into the weekend. Meanwhile, Man United have seen 27 total goals in their 11 away fixtures, with three or more goals scored in their last five Premier League outings. There have also been 3+ goals in five of their last six meetings.
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Aston Villa vs Manchester United game info
| Location: | Villa Park, Birmingham, England |
| Date: | Sunday, February 11, 2024 |
| Time: | 11:30 a.m. ET |
| TV: | Network |
| Weather: | 44F, 10-20 mph winds, 34% POP, 82% humidity |
Aston Villa vs Manchester United key injuries
Aston Villa: Tyrone Mings D (Out), Emiliano Buendia M (Out), Lucas Digne D (Doubtful).
Manchester United: Lisandro Martinez D (Out), Aaron Wan-Bissaka D (Doubtful), Anthony Martial F (Out).
Aston Villa vs Manchester United recent league form
| Teams | Recent Premier League Form |
|---|---|
 Aston Villa |
W-L-D-W-L |
 Manchester United |
W-W-D-L-W |
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