With the chasing pack faltering, Aston Villa still look like a good bet for Champions League qualification this season — but they can’t afford to take their foot off the gas as they host Newcastle on Tuesday.
The magic of Villa’s December form has worn off a little this month, with just one goal in three games, but they’re still fourth in the Premier League table and there were positives from Friday’s battling 0-0 draw at Chelsea in the FA Cup.
Newcastle were expected to be challenging for the Top 4 this year, too, but they start the day 14 points behind the hosts. A gritty 2-0 cup victory at Fulham on Saturday at least eased some of the pressure on Magpies boss Eddie Howe.
Read on for our free Aston Villa vs Newcastle picks and predictions ahead of this Tuesday, January 30 showdown
Aston Villa vs Newcastle best odds
EPL predictions for Aston Villa vs Newcastle
Payback is on the menu at Villa Park on Tuesday, with the hosts unlikely to have forgotten the 5-1 humiliation at St. James’ Park in August. Since then, Aston Villa have soared while Newcastle’s season has taken a rocky path.
I’m backing Unai Emery’s men to take all three points in this rematch. Villa have won 10 of their last 11 home games across all competitions, including victories over Arsenal and Manchester City, and they’re only five points behind Premier League leaders Liverpool.
After some sloppy defensive outings in late December, Villa have bounced back with three straight clean sheets, and that bodes well as they come face-to-face with a talented Magpies attack.
On the flip side, Newcastle’s struggles have largely come on the road. They’ve lost their last five league games on their travels, and the weekend win at Fulham in the FA Cup wasn’t exactly convincing. The Magpies only had 44% of the possession and were outshot 14-8.
But this pick is really about Villa. I expect a red-hot atmosphere for their first home outing of 2024 and a statement performance from a team locked in on cementing a Top 4 finish.
My best bet: Aston Villa moneyline (-105 at TonyBet)
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Aston Villa vs Newcastle same-game parlay
Aston Villa moneyline
Ollie Watkins to score anytime
Alexander Isak Over 0.5 shots on target
It’s no secret that Villa rely heavily on Ollie Watkins’ goal threat, and his recent drought has left Emery’s men a little short of ideas in the final third. But I think that ends on Tuesday.
Sure, Watkins hasn’t found the net since the 2-1 win over Brentford on December 17, but he’s got nine league goals to his name this season and Newcastle have looked shaky at the back, especially on the road. The Magpies conceded four goals at Liverpool on New Year’s Day.
Alexander Isak is expected to lead the line again for Newcastle, and I like the odds for him to get at least one effort on target.
He’s cashed in that prop in his last five games — with two or more shots on target in three of those. Even if he ends up spending time out wide, he’s capable of cutting inside and doing damage, particularly as the Villa full-backs love to push forward.
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Aston Villa vs Newcastle side and Over/Under analysis
Villa’s dominant home record and Newcastle’s wobbly road form add up to Howe’s men arriving as clear underdogs — and it’s tough to argue with that logic. The hosts simply look like the more cohesive, settled team.
I’m looking at wing play as an X-factor, with Emery able to unleash a combination of Moussa Diaby, Leon Bailey, and John McGinn. The visitors have a game-changer in Anthony Gordon but they’re dealing with transfer speculation surrounding Miguel Almiron, who missed the Fulham game.
This Newcastle defense shouldn’t have too many problems with anything aerial, but the pace and movement of Villa’s front three will create tricky matchups — and I’ve already pointed to Watkins as an anytime scorer prop.
This fixture has brought plenty of scoring chances in recent years. The last four meetings have all served up at least three goals, including 5-1 and 3-3 scorelines.
But this clash could buck the trend. Villa have played three cagey contests this month, and the Under 2.5 total goals is worth a look here, despite the attacking quality on both squads.
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Aston Villa vs Newcastle game info
| Location: | Villa Park, Birmingham, England |
| Date: | Tuesday, January 30, 2024 |
| Time: | 3:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | USA Network |
| Weather: | Below 40F, dry conditions, slight breeze |
Aston Villa vs Newcastle key injuries
Aston Villa: Lucas Digne D (Questionable), Tyrone Mings D (Out), Pau Torres D (Out), Jacon Ramsey M (Out), Emi Buendia M (Out).
Newcastle: Callum Wilson F (Questionable), Harvey Barnes M (Questionable), Nick Pope G (Out), Joelinton M (Out), Joe Willock M (Out).
Aston Villa vs Newcastle recent league form
| Teams | Recent Premier League Form |
|---|---|
 Aston Villa |
D-W-L-D-W |
 Newcastle |
L-L-L-L-W |
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