Atletico Madrid will look to overturn a 1-0 deficit in their Champions League Round of 16 second leg against Inter Milan tonight. Our soccer betting odds have the visitors favored slightly to come out on top.
With a 12-point gap between them and their rivals Real Madrid in La Liga, the Champions League is the one remaining chance at glory for Atletico Madrid. But with just one victory in their last five matches and Barcelona looming at the weekend, it’s a rough spell for Diego Simeone’s men and they’ll hope Antoine Griezmann’s return can right the ship.
Inter Milan are one of the hottest teams in Europe, and their 16-point advantage atop Serie A allowed them to rest and rotate key players ahead of their visit to Madrid. They’ve won all 13 matches they’ve played in 2024, and they’re determined to reach the Champions League final for the second year running.
Our Atletico Madrid vs. Inter Milan free betting picks and predictions for Wednesday, March 13 explain why paying attention to form is probably the best way to approach this match.
Atletico Madrid vs Inter best odds
Atletico Madrid vs Inter picks and predictions
According to the Opta, Inter Milan have the second-best odds of reaching the Champions League final, with their supercomputer currently predicting a rematch of the 2023 final against Manchester City. In order to do so, they’ll need to avoid defeat in Atletico Madrid on Wednesday.
But Simone Inzaghi’s men aren’t going to visit the Estadio Metropolitano and look to protect a one-goal aggregate advantage. It’s simply not their style. They’re going to do what they’ve been doing for two months now — win the match. In fact, that’s what I’m banking on for my best bet.
Inter Milan can win matches in almost any fashion. Tightly contested affair against a team that out-shoots them? No problem. See their 1-0 win against Bologna this weekend, in which their rotated squad went on the road and won despite being outshot 19-5 on the day.
How about a back-and-forth affair with a team that wants to try to play with them? Ask Atalanta how that went, as Inter carved them apart in a 4-0 win.
Or maybe you need convincing that they can score goals when they’ve got to make the most of very limited chances? Well, Roma held Inter to 0.95 xG last month when they hosted the Nerazzurri — and they lost 4-2 anyways.
Inter aren’t just winning, they’re dominating. They’ve kept nine clean sheets over their past 11 fixtures, including the 1-0 win over Atletico in the first leg. That includes four of their last five matches away from the San Siro. And striker Lautaro Martinez is in fine form, with four goals in his last five matches, as well as an assist in the first leg.
That’s why Atletico Madrid can’t simply bank on winning at home on Wednesday. Sure, they’re getting Antoine Griezmann back after he missed their four fixtures since the first leg. But Griezmann hasn’t scored or assisted in his last four matches, and has gone eight without a goal.
Alvaro Morata hasn’t done any better. Morata is the club’s leading goal-scorer on the season, but just one of his 14 goals this season have been scored in his last 10 outings. That came last weekend in a 2-1 win over Real Betis, one of just two victories in their last nine matches.
Atletico Madrid has lost just once in their last 32 home fixtures in all competitions. But that defeat came last month, a 1-0 Copa del Rey loss to Athletic Bilbao. It was a strong side for the hosts, and they failed to score despite 1.64 xG accrued on the day.
I’m anticipating a similar result on Wednesday. Inter Milan are the better team, they’re favored to win, and they’re getting plus odds to do so. I’ll happily back them at a price of +146 at TonyBet to win outright and advance.
My best bet: Inter Milan moneyline (+146 at TonyBet)
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Atletico Madrid vs Inter same-game parlay
Inter Milan moneyline
Lautaro Martinez Over 2.5 shots
Samuel Lino Over 0.5 shots on target
Martinez took seven shots in the first leg, putting three of them on target as he racked up 0.48 xG on the night. He did this despite just eight touches inside the Atletico penalty area.
Ten different players have registered 2+ shots in Atletico’s four matches since the first leg against Inter, and with the questions in their back line, I anticipate Martinez having another high-volume outing.
At the other end, fullback Samuel Lino has become more involved in attack. He’s managed a shot on goal in six of his last seven outings, with the lone outlier being the first leg.
He took three shots in that match, narrowly missing the target twice, and has taken multiple shots in six of his last eight matches. With Inter focused on containing Griezmann and Morata, I anticipate him finding space to put one on frame.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Atletico Madrid vs Inter side and Over/Under analysis
When the 3-way money line opened up two weeks ago for this match, the two sides were both priced between +160 and +170 with different books having each side favored. But Inter’s price has steadily come down, and now they sit around +145 to +150 on average.
Atletico Madrid are priced as high as +200 heading into Wednesday, while the draw has barely moved and is available at +230. Only a win will do for Atletico, as any other result will see them eliminated at the end of regulation.
The total of 2.5 goals is shaded towards the Under, with a price of around -130 versus even-money for the Over. Five of Inter’s last 10 matches have ended with them winning 1-0, including the first leg of this tie. The other five outings all went Over the 2.5 line.
For the hosts, the first leg was one of five matches in their last eight where Atletico have failed to score. Despite that, four of their last six have seen three or more goals scored.
It’s also worth noting that Inter Milan’s seven matches in the competition thus far have featured just two matches with three or more goals, while four have seen one goal scored at most.
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Atletico Madrid vs Inter game info
| Location: | Civitas Metropolitan Stadium, Madrid, Spain |
| Date: | Wednesday, March 13, 2024 |
| Time: | 4:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Fubo Sports |
| Weather: | 54F, 6-8 mph winds, 0% PoP |
Atletico Madrid vs Inter key injuries
Atletico Madrid: Antoine Griezmann F (Probable), Jose Gimenez D (Questionable), Thomas Lemar M (Out), Cesar Azpilicueta D (Out).
Inter: Marko Arnautovic F (Out), Juan Cuadrado D (Out), Stefano Sensi M (Out), Carlos Augusto D (Doubtful).
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