A week after meeting in the Spanish Supercopa semifinal, Atletico Madrid will once again square off with cross-city rivals Real Madrid on Thursday for a spot in the Copa del Rey quarterfinals.
It’s not quite been the season Diego Simeone’s side hoped for, but Atletico Madrid return home from Saudi Arabia hoping the Estadio Metropolitano can continue producing results. It’s been more than a year since Atletico has lost at home, going 25 unbeaten during that span.
The Supercopa title came easily for Real Madrid after they trounced Barcelona in the final on Sunday to make it 21 matches unbeaten. But they needed extra time to defeat Atletico in the semifinal, and there could be a bit of jet lag and heavy legs leading Carlo Ancelotti to rotate the side.
My Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid betting picks for Thursday, January 18 explain why we should expect plenty of entertainment in this Copa del Rey affair.
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid best odds
 Atletico Madrid |
 Real Madrid |
|
|---|---|---|
| +185 | Moneyline | +148 |
| +250 | Draw | +250 |
| Over 2.5 (+104) | Total | Under 2.5 (-122) |
Odds courtesy of TonyBet on January 18, 2024.
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid picks and predictions
For much of Simeone’s reign, Atletico was known for defense. It was a boring style of play for the neutral, but it led to lots of hard-fought wins and multiple pieces of silverware. But that defense hasn’t been there this season. Sure, they’ve kept clean sheets, but the number of 1-0 and 2-0 wins simply haven’t been there of late.
Atletico have managed just one clean sheet over their last six matches, conceding multiple goals in four of those fixtures. That includes giving up three in regulation to Real Madrid last week before falling 5-3 in extra time.
Before traveling to the Middle East, Atletico needed a second-half brace from Memphis Depay to see off Lugo in their Copa del Rey opener, as the Spanish third-tier side put up more of a fight than expected. That was preceded by a 4-3 thriller against Girona.
Atletico have the fourth-lowest xGA in La Liga this season and have only allowed 23 goals through 19 matches. But they’ve kept just four clean sheets in 13 matches across all competitions this season — albeit all four have come in the last seven fixtures.
Still, it’s difficult to see them keeping a clean sheet against Los Blancos. Real found a goal in the meeting in September, and their attack is in fine form of late. The combination of Vinicius Jr and Rodrygo in attack has people easily forgetting about the departure of Karim Benzema. At the same time, midfielder Jude Bellingham has been worth every cent of his record transfer fee.
Real Madrid have yet to be held without a goal in their 14 away fixtures this campaign and have kept just five clean sheets away from home. They’ve scored a combined 10 goals in regulation over their three January fixtures, and it’s hard to see Atletico Madrid keeping them off the scoresheet.
As we saw last week, these two teams have plenty of attacking quality and aren’t afraid to go toe-to-toe with one another. Even if Real Madrid rotates, it’s likely to be in defense. Ancelotti has already confirmed that Kepa will not start in goal, making it more likely Atletico can find the back of the net.
I'm heading to TonyBet’s combo market, where I can get Over 2.5 goals with both teams scoring at -108 odds. This should be priced closer to -120, and once lineups are confirmed I expect it will move. Take advantage of the slight edge and enjoy what I expect will be a feisty and exciting fixture.
My best bet: Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score (-108 at TonyBet)
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Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid same-game parlay
Over 2.5
Both teams to score
Real Madrid Over 5.5 corners
Antoine Griezmann to score or assist
In each of their two previous meetings this season, Real Madrid have earned 11 corner kicks against Atletico’s defense. Atletico tends to block shots as much as possible, and Real Madrid’s high possession rate and 42 combined shots over the two fixtures led to quite a few going over the end line.
Throw in the fact Real Madrid have attempted at least seven corners in each of their last four matches against Atletico Madrid, and it’s easy to see why I'm taking six to be the floor here.
Antoine Griezmann has been in form for Atletico, and he’s found the back of the net in both Madrid derbies this season. He also assisted the opening goal last week when Mario Hermoso headed home.
Griezmann has been involved in four of Atletico’s 10 goals in their past four matches, and his track record against Real Madrid has me backing him to be involved again.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid side and Over/Under analysis
The 3-way line is offering plus odds on all three selections. Real Madrid are favored slightly — with +145 on offer — but Atletico can be had for +187 while the draw is paying up to +255.
Real Madrid could be forced to rest some players due to fatigue and jet lag, and that gives Atletico an edge. When the lineups come out, it could cause one of the biggest shifts I’ve seen in a while.
I’m staying away from the moneyline until I see the lineups, but if Ancelotti has to rest key players — especially on defense — I’m likely pouncing on Atletico draw no bet which is currently +110 at bet365.
As for the total, I'm already on the Over 2.5 as part of my best bet, as are the public bettors. The best price you can get right now is -128 at FanDuel, with everyone else at -135 or more. The Under 2.5 will give you plus odds at most books.
These teams have too much firepower for me to go Under. They also don’t do low-scoring affairs when they meet up. Four of the last five have seen three or more scored, and the last two meetings have featured 10 goals in regulation. The last two meetings at the Metropolitano have also gone Over.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid game info
| Location: | Metropolitano Stadium, Madrid, Spain |
| Date: | Thursday, January 18, 2024 |
| Time: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Network |
| Weather: | 52 degrees F, POP: 22%, Wind: 10mph, Humidity: 80% |
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid key injuries
Atletico Madrid: Reinildo D (Out), Thomas Lemar M (Out), Pablo Barrios M (Probable).
Real Madrid: Kepa GK (Out), Eder Militao D (Out), David Alaba D (Out).
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