We have the second of this week’s Champions League semifinals with Borussia Dortmund vs. PSG this afternoon. The winner of this tie will meet either Bayern Munich or Real Madrid in this month’s final.
It’s a huge game between two sides who know each other very well, so where do our betting picks lie?
Find out below in our Dortmund vs. PSG predictions for May 1.
Borussia Dortmund vs PSG picks and predictions
My best bet:
PSG moneyline (+145 at TonyBet)
My analysis
If you think that Dortmund vs. PSG is familiar then you would be correct. This is a rematch of two meetings in the Group stage where the game in Dortmund finished in a 1-1 draw, while PSG defended the Parc des Princes in a 2-0 win.
Dortmund come into this game on the back of a 4-1 thrashing by RB Leipzig on Saturday. On the flip side of that PSG rested a number of their key stars, including Kylian Mbappe, and drew 3-3 with Le Havre, thanks to a 95th-minute winner from Goncalo Ramos. That goal leveled the game and kept the Ligue 1 title in Paris.
That means coming into this game you have a Dortmund team who would be deflated after a heavy defeat going up against a PSG side who are fresh from an injury-time goal that sealed another league title. That’s a huge difference in morale and it’s one of the things that will give PSG the edge in this game.
The other aspect is that PSG managed to rest players and what that means for their freshness. In an ideal world, you’d imagine Luis Enrique would have wanted to keep Mbappe and Ramos on the bench, but they came on. However, they still have less tread on the tires than Dortmund’s players coming into this, which will give them another edge.
Then finally we have to consider the two aforementioned group stage meetings. The first game was in Dortmund with the spoils split 1-1. However, it was a game that PSG controlled with 60% possession and 18 shots to Dortmund’s 16. Then in the second game in Paris, it was a 2-0 win for the home side, with Dortmund getting just one of their 14 shots on target and having just 31% possession.
Those previous games have shown us that PSG is the superior of the two teams and that they’re likely to dominate possession again and create more opportunities. For those reasons, we need to back PSG to win this.
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Borussia Dortmund vs PSG same-game parlay (SGP)
PSG moneyline
Kylian Mbappe anytime goal
Emre Can Over 0.5 fouls
We’re going to back Kylian Mbappe to score for the French side. This could be Mbappe’s last opportunity to win a Champions League with PSG given he’s likely to leave this summer and he’s determined to win it. He’s scored 26 goals in 28 Ligue 1 games this season, in addition to eight in 10 Champions League games, plus a further nine in domestic cups.
We’re also going to back Dortmund’s Emre Can to commit Over 0.5 fouls. He’s going to be in the heart of the German team’s midfield against a young PSG midfield. They’re likely to have the legs on him and could run Dortmund ragged. Can has averaged 1.1 fouls committed per game in the Bundesliga, which has risen to 1.4 when playing in the Champions League.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Borussia Dortmund vs PSG odds
Borussia Dortmund vs PSG live odds
Borussia Dortmund vs PSG opening odds
- Moneyline: Borussia Dortmund +140 | PSG 170
- Draw: +270
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 | Under 2.5
Borussia Dortmund vs PSG side and Over/Under analysis
- PSG are marginal favorites at +145 with Dortmund at +175 and the draw at +270.
- Over 2.5 goals is as short as -189 with Under 2.5 goals at +150.
- 60% of Dortmund’s home games in the Bundesliga have finished with Over 2.5 goals.
- The teams have met four times in the past five seasons and three of four games have finished with Under 2.5 goals.
Borussia Dortmund vs PSG game info
| Location: | Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund, Germany |
| Date: | Wednesday, 5-1-2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | DAZN, Paramount+ |
| Weather: | Warm, sunny conditions. |
Borussia Dortmund vs PSG key injuries
Borussia Dortmund: Ramy Bensebaini LB (Out), Sebastien Haller STR (Out), Donyell Malen STR (Out), Ian Maatsen LB (Questionable), Mats Hummels CB (Questionable).
PSG: Presnel Kimpembe CB (Out), Sergio Rico GK (Out), Layvin Kurzawa LB (Out)
Not intended for use in MA.
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