A potentially huge game in the relegation fight will go down outside London on Friday night, as two promoted sides clash.
After 15 games, the hosts Brentford are 13th in the table and seven points above the relegation zone, while Watford sit 17th and just three points above the bottom three. If either team can take all three points on Friday, it will do wonders for their bid to survive and remain in the Premier League for a consecutive season.
Here are our free soccer betting picks and predictions for Brentford vs. Watford, with kickoff on December 10.
Brentford vs Watford match odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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Brentford vs Watford betting tips
Predictions made on 12/8/2021 at 7:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Brentford vs Watford game info
• Location: Brentford Community Stadium, Brentford, England
• Date: Friday, December 10, 2021
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC Sports, DAZN
Brentford vs Watford betting preview
Weather
A calm night is forecast in Brentford on Friday, with clear skies and little wind expected. Temperatures at kickoff are expected to be around 40 degrees Fahrenheit.
Injuries
Brentford: Mathias Jorgensen CB (Out), Kristoffer Ajer CB (Out), David Raya GK (Out), Tariqe Fosu-Henry AM (Out), Josh Dasilva CM (Out), Ivan Toney ST (Out).
Watford: Ken Sema CM (Questionable), Nicolas Nkoulou CB (Out), Francisco Sierralta CB (Out), Peter Etebo CM (Out), Ismaila Sarr AM (Out), Kwadwo Baah ST (Out), Ben Foster GK (Out), Adam Masina LB (Out).
Brentford vs Watford predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Side analysis
Watford's season is bizarre, even for their lofty standards of head-scratching moments.
No team has lost more than Watford (10), nor has any team drawn less often than their one league deadlock. They have, by a wide margin, the most expected goals against this season (29.2) and have conceded the third-most goals (29). Only lifeless Norwich City (-0.74) have a worse expected goal differential per 90 than Watford's -0.73.
Yet, Watford are midtable in wins (4) and goalscoring metrics, due to a couple of inexplicable results. While their first two wins of the season, 3-2 against Aston Villa and 3-1 against Norwich, were well earned, the subsequent two remain confounding. They first beat Everton 5-2 in a game in which the wheels fell off for Everton, with four goals coming in the final 15 minutes. Then they effectively ended Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's tenure as Manchester United manager with a 4-1 win.
The absurdity of those wins, as well as Watford's overall performances of the season, tell us they are a bad team. It's a matter of time until they're dragged into the relegation zone and get right into the battle for survival.
Brentford have been more steady this year, with four wins, five draws, and six losses. The results have come consistently, with the club never going more than two games without picking up a point. In both two-game losing skids, they were unlucky not to get a result, too, as they pinned Chelsea back for the final 30 minutes in a 1-0 loss in the first instance and then outplayed Norwich in a 2-1 loss in the second.
Just as Watford's underlying numbers can tell us they are relegation fodder, Brentford's tell us they're solid enough to survive. Though they have a goal difference of -2, their expected goal difference per 90 is right at 0.00, with 18.7 xG for and against. That puts them eighth in the Prem and their xG against suggests there's room for improvement.
Brentford are, quite clearly, a competent Premier League side capable of picking up the results they should. Watford, meanwhile, are quite clearly poor and when they lose, they lose decisively. Brentford took four points from two games against Watford a year ago in the Championship, with the win at home, and that will happen again here.
Prediction: Brentford (+108)
Over/Under analysis
Both Watford and Brentford are in the Top 10 in the league in goals scored this year, but Watford have outperformed expectation as they have scored 20 compared to 18.3 xG and are middling in shots created per 90.
The emergence of Emmanuel Dennis has been key, with his six goals leading the club, while Joshua King's reliability could be the difference between relegation and survival. However, it's a clean slate for Watford's attack now as winger Ismaila Sarr will be out for several weeks, which is a massive blow with Sarr the club's best attacking talent by a considerable margin.
Though Brentford's production is in line with expectation (19 goals, 18.7 xG), their attack is dependant on taking the chances they create, as they have the second-fewest shot-creating actions and fifth-fewest goal-creating actions per 90 minutes.
Like Watford, Brentford's attack is entering a new world now, with striker Ivan Toney out with COVID. While Toney's goalscoring has been slow in the new season, with just four goals, he is absolutely vital to their attack. Toney leads the team in assists (2) and expected assists (2.8), with his hold-up play invaluable to the team's attack and the success of his strike partner, Bryan Mbeumo.
With both teams down key pieces in their attack and the stakes high in the bottom half of the table, we are expecting this one to go Under.
Prediction: Under 2.5 (-116)
Best bet
It's difficult to turn down plus-money on a team that clearly should win as a best bet.
Brentford were the better team when these two sides faced last season in the Championship. They have been vastly superior to begin life in the Premier League this season, both home and away. Their stadium was absolutely rocking when they got to play on Friday night to begin the season, as they won 2-0 against Arsenal.
Watford, meanwhile, haven't played teams particularly tough except for on rare occasions, and no team has lost more in the league this season than them, while they lost the most among the three promoted teams in the Championship last season. They'll be going to Brentford hoping for a draw but with just one so far this year, it isn't exactly their strong suit to grind out a result.
Brentford will take all three points as the reality of a relegation battle hits Watford.
Pick: Brentford (+108)
