Lionel Messi and Inter Miami take their show on the road when they travel to face CF Montreal.
The home fans will get to see their team for just the third time this season, where CF Montreal has yet to lose. But maintaining that record will be extremely difficult against an Inter Miami side that’s already scored 21 goals through seven matches.
Find out why our CF Montreal vs Inter Miami predictions are banking on the Herons to continue rolling in our MLS betting picks for Saturday, May 11.
CF Montreal vs Inter Miami CF picks and predictions
My best bet:
Inter Miami -1.5 (+190 at TonyBet)
My analysis
When I sat down to look over the odds for this match, I fully anticipated having to lay serious juice for Inter Miami to win. After all, they’re coming off one of the most dominant halves of soccer in league history.
So, imagine my surprise to find the Herons only slightly favored to win against a CF Montreal side that has the third-worst expected goals differential in Major League Soccer. Given I anticipate a multi-goal victory for the visitors, I’ll happily take them to win by two or more at the +190 price offered by TonyBet.
And it’s not just because Lionel Messi and Inter Miami scored six goals after halftime in their thrashing of New York Red Bulls last weekend. It’s because, for the first time all season, they looked like they’re finally clicking as an entire team.
Despite Jordi Alba’s absence, among others, Tata Martino’s side was moving the ball exceptionally well. They once again fell behind early, as has been a pattern this season. But when they came out of the locker room at the break, Messi showed why he’s still one of the best players in the world and that he’s healthy again.
Messi would set up the equalizer three minutes after intermission, and two minutes later he found the back of the net himself. He would then assist four more times in the half, including a hat trick of goals for Luis Suarez.
The trio of Messi, Suarez, and Robert Taylor caused real problems and Montreal’s going to struggle to contain them. Le CFM is winless in their last three, although they’ve yet to trail at home this season and are on a six-match unbeaten run.
But Montreal has scored just 12 goals this season, and their 19.2 xGA is the worst mark in the East and second-worst in the entire league. They could only draw with Orlando in their last home match, a site that sits second-bottom in the conference. And last weekend, they were blitzed 4-1 by a Nashville side that had 10 goals in their first nine matches.
Inter Miami lost the first meeting back in March, a match that Messi missed and in which Suarez and Busquets played just a combined 37 minutes. But they racked up more xG on the day and nearly came back from a 3-1 hole.
We could play it safe and simply take Miami to win, but there’s real value in taking them to be convincing. Look for the Herons to exact revenge for the second week in a row, and put more than enough goals past Montreal’s defense to win by at least two.
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Lionel Messi odds
Messi’s absurd performance last weekend did a number on his player props, but there’s still a few to look at.
Those wishing to bet on a Messi goal should rush to DraftKings where you can still get him at -125 as of Thursday night. You’ll get nothing better than -150 elsewhere as of writing. Assist markets haven’t been posted, but I expect they’ll drop in value as well.
His shot markets took the biggest hit. Last week you could get even money on 5+ shots, but now your best price currently available is -185 for that same mark. And 2+ shots on goal will only return half your stake, while you’ll need to go up to 3 SOG to get plus-odds.
CF Montreal vs Inter Miami CF same-game parlay (SGP)
Inter Miami to win by 2+ goals
Luis Suarez to score anytime
Both teams to score Yes
Until Inter Miami keeps a team off the scoresheet, I’m going to continue to bet on both teams to score in their matches. You have to go back more than two full months to find their last clean sheet in league play, and Montreal have scored twice in each of their home matches.
The three goals for Suarez last week came on just 1.16 xG, but that’s nothing new for him. The striker’s registered just 5.99 xG on the season but now has 10 goals, and he’s good value for the final leg of this parlay to get another one.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
CF Montreal vs Inter Miami CF odds
CF Montreal vs Inter Miami CF live odds
CF Montreal vs Inter Miami CF opening odds
- Moneyline: CF Montreal +150 | Inter Miami CF +160
- Draw: +250
- Over/Under: Over 2.5 | Under 2.5
CF Montreal vs Inter Miami CF side and Over/Under analysis
- Miami are favored at -120, and the line’s been moving since it opened as money comes in on the Herons. The draw is third favorite at +300, narrowly behind the +275 price for a Montreal win.
- Inter Miami has now won four straight league outings and are unbeaten in six, while Montreal’s not tasted defeat in six home fixtures going back to last season.
- The total has shifted to three goals, with the Over juiced near -140.
- There have been 3+ goals scored in nine of Miami’s last 10 matches in MLS.
CF Montreal vs Inter Miami CF game info
| Location: | Saputo Stadium, Montreal, QC |
| Date: | Saturday, May 10, 2024 |
| Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV |
| Weather: | 58F, wind 6-9mph, POP 7% |
CF Montreal vs Inter Miami CF key injuries
CF Montreal: Matias Coccaro F (Out), Kwadwo Opoku M (Doubtful), Josef Martinez F (Out), Lassi Lappalainen M (Doubtful).
Inter Miami CF: Jordi Alba D (Doubtful), Ian Fray D (Out), Diego Gomez M (Out), Federico Redondo M (Out).
Not intended for use in MA.
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