Chelsea vs Leicester City Predictions and Picks: Bad Day to Be a Goalie

Chelsea and Leicester City meet again in the FA Cup after a memorable battle in 2021. Our soccer betting picks believe this could be another exciting chapter in the English rivalry with the promise of multiple goals hitting the board.

Sam Farley - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Sam Farley • Betting Analyst
Mar 15, 2024 • 13:37 ET • 4 min read
Chelsea soccer Mykhaylo Mudryk
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

There’s more FA Cup action on Sunday, March 17 with Chelsea vs. Leicester City meeting at the quarterfinal stage. Leicester are one of two Championship teams to reach this stage of the competition and although they’re front runners to get promoted back to the Premier League this summer, there’s still a big gulf between them and the Blues in the soccer odds.

Can Chelsea reach an FA Cup semifinal in Mauricio Pochettino’s first season with the club, or could Leicester continue what has been a great season for the Foxes? Don’t miss our free betting picks for Chelsea vs. Leicester City on Sunday, March 17.

Chelsea vs Leicester City odds

Chelsea  Leicester City
-222 Moneyline +580
+390 Draw +390
Over 2.5 (-179) Total Under 2.5 (+150)

Odds courtesy of bet365 on March 15, 2024.

Chelsea vs Leicester City picks and predictions

Sunday sees the final two FA Cup quarterfinals. The first one up is Chelsea vs. Leicester City, a replay of the 2021 FA Cup final, a game which Leicester famously won 1-0.

Since that fateful game the two clubs have had mixed fortunes. Leicester have sunk to the Championship, while Chelsea have spent a lot of money but found no success in the Premier League. Now they meet in an FA Cup quarterfinal knowing that a win takes them to Wembley for the semis and then they’re in with a shot of winning the whole thing.

Chelsea’s Premier League campaign has been mixed. They’re currently in the bottom half of the table and it’s often felt they’ve moved two steps forward and then one back. They have good performances and promise to have changed their fortunes around, only to follow it up with a horror show. They’ve not been helped by a huge number of injuries to key members of the squad, let alone the added difficulty of bedding in such a high number of new players.

Meanwhile, Leicester have been at the front of the race to get promoted from the Championship. They’ve been amongst the top teams in the division throughout the season and despite a recent stumble, they still look like they should go up.

My best for this game isn’t one with huge odds, but -134 for both teams to score feels like real value.

Chelsea have seen both teams scoring in 66.7% of their Premier League games, including their last five. In 27 league games they’ve scored 47 and conceded 45, averaging over 1.5 per game in both categories. They’ve played four FA Cup games so far, including one replay, and two of those games have featured both teams scoring and a total of 13 goals.

Leicester have played 37 games in the Championship this season and they’ve allowed just 33 goals. That said, they’ve yet to play a team of the quality of Chelsea and they will surely struggle against the increased talent on display. Meanwhile they’ve scored 74 goals, tied for the most in the league at the time of writing. This is a team that are hugely dangerous with the ball and don’t just rely on one player, spreading the goals out between their talented squad, something which should give them confidence against Chelsea.

These are two teams who are both capable of scoring goals and we should see plenty of them. Getting -134 on both teams scoring feels like a high value play for Sunday’s game.

My best bet: Both teams to score (-134 at TonyBet)

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Chelsea vs Leicester City same-game parlay

Both teams to score

Chelsea to win

Cole Palmer to score or assist

Here’s our +250 same-game parlay for Chelsea vs. Leicester City on Sunday that builds on our best bet for the game.

We’re going to add Chelsea to win. It’s been a difficult season for Chelsea, winning just 11 of 27 Premier League games and looking far from the side that we’re used to seeing amongst the best in Europe. However, it’s worth remembering that they’re not in Europe this season, they can’t win the Premier League or even finish in the Champions League spots, and all they really have to play for is the FA Cup.

Winning the FA Cup in his first season at the club would be massive for Mauricio Pochettino and turn a bad season into a productive one. At the same time, Leicester are in a battle to get promoted from the Championship and an FA Cup run is a distraction, even if it’s a good one. Chelsea come into this as the more motivated team and as the home side, and they possess a starting lineup with far more quality. They should win this with ease.

If Chelsea are to win then it’s more than likely that Cole Palmer has a good game. The 21-year old has been in incredible form. He’s scored 13 goals in all competitions for Chelsea this season and assisted on a further 10 goals. He’s a talented player and comes alive in the spaces between midfield and defense, something that puts him in great positions to either score or assist, something he should manage to do in this game against a Championship defense.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Chelsea vs Leicester City side and Over/Under analysis

With Leicester having their eyes on the battle to win the Championship (or at least get promoted from it) while Chelsea have nothing to fight for besides the FA Cup, it’s making me bullish on Chelsea’s chances despite a poor season from the London club. However, at odds of -222, it’s not a wager worth taking on the moneyline, especially given their mixed form. The draw is available at +390 and a Leicester win at +580.

As discussed in my best bet there should be goals, and Over 2.5 goals comes in at -179 with the Under at +150. I’d take the Over there, for just the same reasons as I would take both teams to score. These are two clubs with good attacking players, and defenses that aren’t great at the top level.

Not intended for use in MA.
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Chelsea vs Leicester City game info

Location: Stamford Bridge, Fulham, London
Date: Sunday, March 17, 2024
Time: 8:45 a.m. ET
TV: ESPN+, Sportsnet
Weather: 55F, 5 mph winds, 0% PoP 

Chelsea vs Leicester City key injuries

Chelsea: Christopher Nkunku STR (Out), Welsey Fofana CB (Out), Reece James RB (Out), Romeo Lavia CM (Out), Levi Colwill CB (Out), Ben Chilwell LB (Questionable), Benoit Badiashile CB (Questionable).
Leicester City: Wildred Ndid CM (Out), Dannis Praet CAM (Out), Ricardo Pereira RB (Questionable).

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Betting Analyst

Sam is based in the United Kingdom, where he grew up living and breathing soccer, before discovering - and playing - a different kind of football at the University of Bristol. He’s worked in the media covering soccer and the NFL for the better part of a decade, and has been a regular on the Matchbook NFL Podcast. His work has also appeared in a wide range of publications including The Telegraph, The Independent, VICE, and MSN.

The search for great betting value is a daily one, and Sam always hunts out big prices with a particular focus on player props. Sam’s best advice for bettors is to track their bets on a spreadsheet, that way you can keep an eye on your P&L but also the types of bets and sports that you are most successful in. He also recommends using a variety of different sportsbooks, with bet365, Betfair and Paddy Power amongst his favorites.

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