It's all to play for on Sunday as Mexico and Ecuador meet at State Farm Stadium in Arizona.
Both teams enter this Group B finale tied on three points, but it's Ecuador who have the edge with a +1 goal differential. The Copa America odds suggest this game will be tight, but will Ecuador's need for at least a draw sway my Mexico vs. Ecuador predictions?
Find out below as I break down this thrilling fixture for Sunday, June 30.
Mexico vs Ecuador picks, predictions, and betting tips
My best bet:
Draw No Bet — Ecuador (-120 at Betano)
My analysis
Before I get into the analysis, let's do a little housekeeping for those who may not be familiar with this betting market.
This is a bet on Ecuador to win the game. If they win, we win. If Mexico wins, we lose. And if the game ends in a draw, we get our money back (hence the somewhat even odds).
So why am I betting on this market? Well, there are a few reasons.
Because of their +1 goal differential, Ecuador currently hold the second spot in Group B, which means all they need is a tie to progress to the quarterfinals. I talked at length in an earlier preview about how their entire situation changed with that Enner Valencia first-half red card in a game they ultimately lost 2-1, but they are still a team that I'm bullish on. They have plenty of attacking options up front, and putting three past Jamaica has me feeling good about their chances moving forward.
If we look at Mexico, I had high hopes for them vs. Venezuela, but they looked void of any real ideas in the final third, and despite bossing possession, found themselves undone via a Soloman Rondo penalty. Given Mexico's need to attack in search of the win, I believe Ecuador will be able to sit tight and hit them on the counterattack once or twice.
Ecuador is the more stable of the two teams, and with just four losses (including two to Argentina, and one to Italy) over their last 16 fixtures in all competitions, I like their chances at avoiding defeat to a Mexico team in turmoil.
Mexico vs Ecuador same-game parlay (SGP)
Ecuador double chance — Win/Draw
Ecuador first team to score
Mexico team total Under 1.5 goals
While the payout might not be as sexy as some SGP's, it's still one that should be added to the betting account.
Since we can't take the Tie No Bet option, we'll pivot to Ecuador double chance, which does give us the win/draw option.
In addition, Ecuador's attacking options up front trump that of Mexicos, and their best plan of securing a result is by taking the fight to Mexico and forcing them to score two goals to beat them. As you can tell by the third leg, I don't believe that will be possible.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Mexico vs Ecuador odds
| Mexico | Ecuador | |
|---|---|---|
| +192 | Moneyline | +187 |
| Over 2.5 (+145) | Total | Under 2.5 (-175) |
| +200 | Draw | +200 |
Odds courtesy of Betano on 6-30.
Mexico vs Ecuador game info
| Location: | University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, AZ |
| Date: | Sunday, June 30, 2024 |
| Time: | 8:00 p.m. ET |
Not intended for use in MA.
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