Mexico hopes to open a successful Copa America 2024 run when they host Jamaica in their opening fixture of Group B.
El Tri is in a transition, as it’s the first tournament in nearly 20 years where they won’t have Guillermo Ochoa, Hector Herrera, Andres Guardado, or Raul Jiminez. Their recent 4-0 defeat to Uruguay has many Mexican fans concerned.
Jamaica’s biggest star has opted out of international duty due to complaints against the federation, but Leon Bailey’s absence doesn’t mean all is lost for the Reggae Boyz. They still possess the ability to cause an upset.
Find out why I think they’ll cause some problems for the Copa America odds favorites in our Mexico vs Jamaica prediction for their Copa America fixtures on Saturday, June 22.
Mexico vs Jamaica picks, predictions, and betting tips
My best bet:
Jamaica double chance - win/draw (+130 at Betano)
My analysis
Mexico are favored, and I understand why. They’re the big name, they’re a CONCACAF powerhouse, and they’ve got one of the best midfielders in the competition in Edson Alvarez.
But they are favored far more than they should be in my opinion, and I think Jamaica is a team that can spring an upset here. And if you look at the odds at Betano, they have Mexico as an overwhelming favorite—but some of the other markets tell a different story.
Mexico is -154 on the 3-way money line, but both teams to score is at plus-odds. The Over 2.5 market is as well. That means you’d think they’re expecting a 2-0 win for Mexico. Yet the Asian Spread markets don’t back that up, as Mexico -1 is at plus odds.
That’s just part of the reason I love getting +130 for the double chance. The other is the tactical matchup between these sides. Both of these sides are better on the counter, but Mexico will dominate the ball. That suits Jamaica just fine, as they’ll drop into a 5-4-1 and look to hit on the break with pace.
Their dribble success rate was second among all CONCACAF teams during the Nations League, and their xG per shot is one of the highest of any team in the tournament. They also have one of the highest interception rates in the competition, making things tough for a Mexico side that averaged fewer than 19 touches in their opponent’s penalty box per 90 minutes.
Heimir Hallgrimsson helped make magic happen with Iceland at the 2016 Euros and 2018 World Cup, and he’s an excellent tactician. He has the edge over an under-fire Jamie Lozano, and his team is tough to break down.
Mexico may very well win, but Jamaica has the tools to get a result against an El Tri side that is quite inconsistent and carries all the pressure. Weird things happen in international matches, and Mexico simply hasn’t shown me enough to justify their price. Look for the Reggae Boyz to walk away with at least one point.
Mexico vs Jamaica same-game parlay (SGP)
Jamaica double chance - Win/Draw
Both teams to score - Yes
Over 0.5 goals - First Half
It’s highly unlikely that Jamaica is able to keep Mexico at bay the entire match, but they’ll try. In fact, they have kept four clean sheets in their last six matches. But they conceded to tiny Dominica twice last week and will be without veteran keeper Andre Blake. Look for both teams to find the scoresheet in this one.
I’d also bank on one of those goals coming in the first half. Jamaica’s last nine competitive matches have featured a goal inside the opening 45’, and only two of Mexico’s last 10 matches in total have been scoreless heading into halftime.
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Mexico vs Jamaica odds
| Mexico | Jamaica | |
|---|---|---|
| -154 | Moneyline | +540 |
| Over 2.5 (+118) | Total | Under 2.5 (-143) |
| +280 | Draw | +280 |
Odds courtesy of Betano on 6-20
Mexico vs Jamaica game info
| Location: | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Saturday, June 22, 2024 |
| Time: | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
| Weather: | Perfect playing conditions |
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