In 1986, Canada made their first — and to this point, only — men's World Cup, where they were quickly sent home from Mexico after three games, three losses, and zero goals scored in the group stage. In the 30+ years that have followed, Canada have rarely even sniffed contention — that is, until this cycle.
A youthful, talented, and deep Canadian men's team enter the final window in CONCACAF World Cup qualifying on the verge of punching their ticket to Qatar after 11 undefeated games thus far.
After so many embarrassing performances in Central America in their doomed past, a win in Costa Rica is all that's required to return to the sport's biggest stage — and our picks and predictions expect them to do what's needed.
Costa Rica vs Canada game info
• Location: Estadio Nacional, San Jose, Costa Rica
• Date: Thursday, March 24, 2022
• Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
• TV: Sportsnet, OneSoccer
Costa Rica vs Canada betting tips
Click on each pick for complete analysis
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Costa Rica vs Canada match odds
Costa Rica: +205
Canada: +145
Draw: +195
Total: 2.5
Over: +175
Under: -230
Costa Rica vs Canada betting preview
Weather
A hot and humid night in San Jose is expected Thursday, despite the late local kickoff. Temperatures when the game begins are expected to be around 70 degrees Fahrenheit, with 80% humidity.
Injuries
Costa Rica: None.
Canada: Alphonso Davies LW (Out), Sam Adekugbe LB (Out).
Costa Rica vs Canada predictions
Side analysis
Despite entering 2022 undefeated in qualifying and atop the CONCACAF table, Canada's qualification seemingly hung in the balance ahead of the last window. The schedule, in itself, was daunting. Two away trips to two of the most intense atmospheres in the region, Honduras and El Salvador, were on either side of a home date with the USA.
To add to the matter, Canada would enter the window without Alphonso Davies and Stephen Eustaquio (who would feature in just the final match), their two most important players. The intensity and difficulty were to ramp up and Canada were to endure it without key players. What followed, however, was simply more of what has become the norm for this Canada team: straightforward, emphatic success, with Canada winning all three games by 2-0 scorelines.
Canada's evolution into a genuine force in CONCACAF can be traced back to the start of John Herdman's tenure, in 2018, but the quality of the evolution only really became clear at last year's Gold Cup. That summer, Canada went to the semifinals — their first since 2007 — without Davies or any of their four top strikers. The crowning victory on that tournament run was a quarterfinal win over Costa Rica, in which Canada were untested in a 2-0 win.
The depth and skill Canada displayed over the summer carried into qualifying and hasn't stopped yet. Through 11 games, Canada are undefeated with seven wins and four draws, 19 goals scored (the most in qualifying) and five goals conceded (the fewest in qualifying). They're on a run of six consecutive wins, which includes a 1-0 win over this same Costa Rica team last November.
Canada have taken nine points from 15 away from home thus far in qualifying. They've conquered previously daunting away trips and have conquered CONCACAF along the way. Thursday will be remarkable for what it will mean — a spot at the World Cup in Qatar — but on the pitch, it will be an entirely unremarkable result. Canada going toe-to-toe with a foe in qualifying and coming out with three points? That's just the norm.
Prediction: Canada (+145)
Over/Under analysis
The 2.5 goal total in this one is -230 to the Under, compared to +175 to the Over, and it's tough to disagree with oddsmakers.
An aging Costa Rica squad, that is still not yet refreshed despite the end of a cycle clearly here, haven't threatened much at all in qualifying. Through 11 games, they've scored just eight goals — the third-fewest in CONCACAF — with only one in four games against Canada, Mexico, and the USMNT. The physicality and skill those three boast is on a different level to CONCACAF's weaker teams and that includes this Costa Rican team that has aged out of relevancy.
For their part — and we have two away wins just last month to point to — Canada aren't going to come into San Jose expecting to expansively attack their way to a win. Those wins, in El Salvador and Honduras, featured a team set up to defend deep and stay compact, and then punish on the counter. That's what they are constructed to do in attack in games like this, and it's what they'll do again on Thursday.
Prediction: Under 2.5 (-230)
Best bet
It's the same as in the previous window, when Canada had oddly good odds for away trips to Honduras and El Salvador. Trips to Central America for World Cup qualifying are absolutely brutal, but neither Mexico nor the USMNT would be +145 favorites in this game. Canada are on par with (and, according to the table, better than) the two regional powerhouses, so we're going to capitalize and take Canada to win at +145 as our best bet.
This is a team that, going back to last summer's Gold Cup, have proven to be as well-coached, talented, and deep as any in the region. Already in qualifying they've earned draws away to Mexico — only the 10th team to take a point in Mexico City in qualifying since 1966 — and away to the USMNT, while winning decisively away to El Salvador and Honduras. The former two teams are far better than this Costa Rica team and while Los Ticos are superior to the latter two, the environments that greeted Canada in those two places are far less friendly.
The story of John Herdman's Canada is answering the call. They've answered it every single step of the way, whether it was a first-round qualifier in Aruba, a Gold Cup quarterfinal against Costa Rica, or an away trip to Estadio Azteca to take on Mexico.
The World Cup in Qatar is calling with a win — count on Canada to answer.
Pick: Canada (+145)
