Tuesday gives us a big clash between England and Italy at Wembley Stadium, with both teams in the hunt for qualification for Euro 2024. England lead the group, unbeaten in five games with the pack behind and chasing.
Italy famously won Euro 2020 at this stadium, beating England in the final, and the Three Lions will be hoping for revenge in front of a home crowd.
Who will come out on top in Tuesday’s big Group C matchup? Don’t miss our England vs Italy picks and predictions.
England vs Italy best odds
 England |
 Italy |
|
|---|---|---|
| -156 | Moneyline | +471 |
| +289 | Draw | +289 |
| Over 2.5 (+121) | Total | Under 2.5 (-143) |
Odds courtesy of TonyBet on October 14, 2023.
England vs Italy picks and predictions
We’ve already seen a number of teams seal their spots at next summer’s Euro tournament in Germany, and England could join them by beating Italy here. England are three points clear of Italy at the top of Group C, having beaten Italy 2-1 in Naples in March of this year.
Aside from qualification for next summer’s tournament, there’s also the matter of revenge for both England’s players and fans. They might have met in March, but Tuesday’s game takes place in the stadium where Italy beat England in the final of the last European Championships. Both teams have changed since then, but for the English fans in particular, there’s an element of wanting payback.
Fortunately for those fans, our best bet for this game is for England to win. The odds are only -154, which aren’t super attractive, but it feels like the safest play for this game.
There’s been some trouble in the Italian camp in recent days with both Sandro Tonali and Nicolo Zaniolo leaving, with both players under investigation for what’s believed to be linked to betting. Neither of those two players will be taking part on Tuesday, and Federico Chiesa is also out due to injury.
The Italians come into this fresh from a 4-0 victory over Group C’s weakest team, Malta. That’ll give them confidence, but it’ll be a tougher test against England, especially when Gareth Southgate was able to rest key players on Friday against Australia.
Harry Maguire, Declan Rice, Harry Kane, and Jude Bellingham didn’t even make it off the bench last week, while other potential starts like John Stones, Phil Foden, and Marcus Rashford had cameos from the bench. That means England will be fresh and should be able to use that to their advantage.
England were poor in their 1-0 win over Australia, but it’s worth noting that it was a friendly, with nothing at stake and neither players, managers, nor fans were that bothered with this game being on the horizon. After a bad first half, England looked better in the second half but will still feel like they have a point to prove after a disappointing night at Wembley.
We’re so used to the idea of Italy being a great team because of their history, but when you look at their squad, it begins to fall apart. There are arguably not that many players from the Italian team who beat Malta that would walk into England’s best starting lineup, with Gianluigi Donnarumma the only one who would be a clear upgrade.
This isn’t a vintage era for the Italian national team, and while they can’t be taken for granted, it’s a good bet that England should be winning, especially with qualification the prize for getting the three points.
My best bet: England moneyline (-154 at TonyBet)
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England vs Italy same-game parlay
England moneyline
Harry Kane to score
Both teams to score - No
Our same-game parlay for England vs. Italy isn’t going to make you a fortune but it has a good chance of winning.
We’ll be starting, as always, with our best bet for the game, which is for England to win. They are the better team in terms of personnel, they come into this fresher, and they are playing in front of their home fans with no travel required.
When England need a goal it’s so often Harry Kane that finds it. The Bayern Munich man is England’s record goal-scorer, and having been rested in the last game, he should be fired up and healthy to take on Italy. When backing Kane to score, you can rest assured that he’ll be on penalty duty should England win one, and he scored a penalty against Italy when they met in March.
Finally, we’re backing both teams not to score. England have only allowed two goals in five qualifying games so far, and despite club form, it’s worth remembering that Harry Maguire has largely been excellent for his country. Both Maguire and Kyle Walker were rested on Friday, while likely defensive partners Kieran Trippier and John Stones started on the bench, so the back four should be fit and firing ahead of this one.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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England vs Italy side and Over/Under analysis
I’m backing England to win this one, but in truth, the odds of -154 aren’t that attractive. It’s just simply the best way to back this game.
You can get Italy at +470, which is a big price if you believe in them. But given their squad and those missing players, I can’t see them pulling off the win here. The draw at +270 is more likely than an Italy win, and that’s perhaps a way to bet this game if you don’t share my trust in Gareth Southgate’s England.
The sportsbooks are expecting a low-scoring game with Under 2.5 goals the sizable favorite. If you want to back Over you can get plus-money. I’d lean towards the Under here, as this feels like a 1-0 or 2-0 England win.
England vs Italy game info
| Location: | Wembley Stadium, London, UK |
| Date: | Tuesday, October 17, 2023 |
| Time: | 3:45 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FS1 |
| Weather: | Low-to-mid 50s, PoP 10%, winds 10-15 mph. |
England vs Italy key injuries
England: Bukayo Saka FWR (Out), Ben Chilwell LB (Out), Luke Shaw LB (Out), Reece James RB (Out), Callum Wilson STR (Out), Ivan Toney STR (Out), Tyrone Mings CB (Out).
Italy: Federico Chiesa FWR (Out), Gianluca Scamacca STR (Out), Mattia Zaccagni FWR (Out), Ciro Immobile STR (Out), Ivan Provedel GK (Out), Sandro Tonali CM (Out), Nicolo Zaniolo (Out).
