Turkey defeated the odds to progress into the Euro 2024 quarterfinals and enjoy underdog status. They are ready to offer the Netherlands a proper contest in their matchup at the Olympiastadion in Berlin on Saturday, July 6.
My Netherlands vs. Turkey prediction is for plenty of goals to be scored. Don't miss any of our free Euro 2024 picks!
Netherlands vs Turkey picks, predictions, and betting tips
My best bet:
Over 2.5 (-128 at Betano)
My analysis
After two mediocre group-stage outings against France (0-0) and Austria (2-3) only allowed them to reach the Round of 16 as a lucky third-place, the Netherlands changed face in front of Romania. They beat one of the surprise packs at Euro 2024 by a score of 3-0 and progressed into the quarterfinals rather unbothered, easing pressure on manager Ronald Koeman and his players.
Turkey were consistent in Group F, winning two of their three matches, and took out Austria in the Round of 16. Turkey put heart and quality into their chase of a historical performance at the Euros. They are the outsiders in this phase of the tournament, but don't be tricked by that. Thus far at Euro 2024, Turkey enjoyed a well-organized team that maximized its potential under Italian head coach Vincenzo Montella.
Their clashes against the Netherlands aren't one-way like it was in Romania's case in the Round of 16. There have been 14 previous meetings between Turkey and the Netherlands, with the Dutch coming out on top on just six occasions. Turkey have won four times, with another four games ending in draws. Only one of the last seven matches finished level. It's going to be a premiere for both sides, as they haven't confronted each other in a knockout tournament game before.
Both Turkey and the Netherlands haven't reached the quarterfinals in the Euros since 2008. The Dutch are after their sixth semifinal at the Euros, while Turkey have only progressed into the last four once, in 2008, after beating Croatia in a penalty shootout.
Turkey loves goals and loves to attack, despite having underdog status. Just two of their 22 games at the Euros finished level and only one was goalless (0-0 vs. Sweden in the group stage at Euro 2000).
The Netherlands have scored at least two goals in six of their last eight Euro matches, and Cody Gakpo's on fire. He netted six times in his nine final tournament appearances at the Euros. And his top performance against Romania will surely serve as an inspiration.
The matchup in Berlin on Saturday should offer plenty of action, so I'll go for goals, goals, goals. The -128 Betano offer for Over 2.5 goals bet is more than tempting.
Netherlands vs Turkey same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 2.5
Over 3.5 yellow cards
Cody Gakpo 2+ shots on target
This game is not just going to be about goals. Clement Turpin, the French referee chosen to officiate this match, should have a torrid time here.
Despite always trying to temper things down, Turpin is a firm match official. He hasn't shown less than three bookings in any of his previous eight games. Given the context and the profiles of both Turkey and the Netherlands, cards are expected in this clash.
I won't ignore Cody Gakpo's run of form either. He sent three shots on target against Romania and scored once, also having a goal disallowed for an offside. I believe Gakpo will continue to impress in this tournament and I see him as the main threat for Turkish keeper Mert Gunok.
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Netherlands vs Turkey odds
| Netherlands | Turkey | |
|---|---|---|
| -161 | Moneyline | +490 |
| Over 2.5 (-128) | Total | Under 2.5 (+105) |
| +325 | Draw | +325 |
Odds courtesy of Betano on 7-5.
Netherlands vs Turkey game info
| Location: | Olympiastadion Berlin, Berlin, Germany |
| Date: | Saturday, July 6, 2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Weather: | 86F, 13 mph winds, 70% PoP, if roof is open. |
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