Portugal vs France Prop Picks & Best Bets: Griezmann Gets a Pair on Goal

Prop bet #1: Griez' is the word

France has scored just three goals in this competition, none of which have come from open play. It doesn’t help that the vaunted French attack isn’t even testing the opposing keeper.

Through their first four matches, the French squad has managed just 15 shots on target. But that’s not for a lack of trying, as they’ve averaged 16.5 shots per 90 minutes, the fourth-highest mark in the competition.

Only Kylian Mbappe and Marcus Thuram have attempted more shots in this tournament for France than Antoine Griezmann. He’s averaging 3.01 shots per 90, and has multiple attempts in all three matches that he’s started. 

Griezmann is expected to start either on the right flank or tucked behind the striker as a No. 10. Which one depends on the alterations manager Didier Deschamps makes to account for the suspension of Adrien Rabiot. 

Either puts him in a position to shoot against Portugal from numerous angles. And as he showed against Belgium, he’s not afraid to test the keeper from range. Both his efforts in the Round of 16 victory came from outside the area. 

The other aspect to consider is that Griezmann takes most free kicks for France. So far France has drawn 54 fouls, the second-highest total of all teams. In a match where both teams will be doing whatever it takes to win, I expect he’ll get at least one chance to line up an effort on a free kick. 

Antoine Griezmann prop: 2+ shots (+100 at Betano)

Prop bet #2: Accident prone

In hockey they often say, “throw the puck at the net and good things can happen.” Well, it appears that’s carried over to the Euros. 

There have been nine own goals scored during Euro 2024, which is as many as were scored in the first 15 European Championships combined. That’s an own goal better than once every five matches. And both of these teams have been beneficiaries of multiple own goals. 

France is only in this match because of an own goal five minutes from full time, and two of their three goals in this competition have come by way of their opponents turning the ball into the back of their own net.

As for Portugal, each of their first two group stage matches saw the other team put one past their own goalkeeper. That includes the equalizing goal in their opener against Czechia, a vital goal considering they needed every bit of stoppage time just to find one of their own.

It’s hard to predict an own goal, but we have multiple factors here that allow us to line this up as a strong prop. First, the price of +600 — while nearly half the price it’s been in some matches — is still a promising one. 

Second, neither of these teams are highly accurate when shooting. We discussed France’s poor aim already, but Portugal isn’t to be outdone. They sit just ahead of France with 16.62 shots per 90 minutes, but are putting less than 30% of those efforts on goal.

Both teams feature players who have no problems shooting from any place on the pitch, and defenders who are willing to throw out a leg to block the shot. In a match of this magnitude, that will happen often, and it takes only one unfortunate deflection to cause heartbreak for one of these teams.   

Portugal vs. France prop: Own Goal to be scored (+600 at Betano)

Prop bet #3: Dias the distributor

For as strong a team as they are, the French have ceded a fair amount of possession to their opponents. Belgium had 45% of the ball in the Round of 16 matchup, while Austria actually had more of the ball in their opening group stage match. Even Poland topped 40% in their draw.

But of the 2,306 opposing touches France have allowed at Euro 2024, over half of them have been in their opponents’ final third as they force teams to either pass the ball around or pass it out after an attack.

Portugal have one of the best on-ball defenders in the world in Ruben Dias. As a Manchester City player, he’s used to having the ball at his feet in Pep Guardiola’s system. And it’s shown in this competition, with the center back having attempted at least 94 passes in all three of his starts. 

While it’s easy to view those numbers as being high simply because Portugal has dominated possession, it’s important to note he had 97 passes against Turkey despite his side having just 56% of the ball. And his number for this match is just 77, which accounts for the probability of France having more of the ball.

But I don’t think they will actually have that much more possession than the Portuguese. Even if they do, Dias should get plenty of chances to pass the ball out as Portugal works the ball from goal. Portugal has the most passes of any team in the middle third of the pitch, and their defenders play a key role in that buildup. I’ll happily take his lowered number here. 

Ruben Dias prop: 77+ passes (-118 at Betano)