Spain vs Croatia Prediction for Euro 2024: Spaniards Put Pedal Down

If classic midfield maestros are your thing, it doesn’t get much better than Saturday’s Group B showdown between Spain and Croatia, with Rodri, Pedri and Luka Modric set to put on a show in Berlin.

Every point counts in what’s been dubbed the tournament’s Group of Death, and the Spaniards enter as favorites for this opening fixture in the latest Euro 2024 odds, despite Croatia’s history of finding another gear at big tournaments.

There are likely to be plenty of twists and turns ahead, but this star-studded contest in Berlin could go a long way to deciding the group pecking order. I break down this must-see June 15 matchup with my Euro 2024 picks and Spain vs. Croatia predictions. 

Spain vs Croatia picks and predictions

My best bet:
Spain moneyline (-102 at Betano)

My analysis
It feels harsh to doubt Croatia’s experienced core after their heroics at the past two World Cups, but these teams make for an interesting contrast, with Spain way ahead in pivoting towards a new era built around dynamic young talent.

Luis de la Fuente’s men have a level of athleticism and cutting edge that I see Modric & Co. struggling to match in this Group B opener, and I’m picking the surging Spaniards to get off to a winning start. They only lost once on the way to the top spot in their qualifying group, scoring 25 goals and conceding just five.

Spain have also had the upper hand in this matchup, landing a 5-3 extra-time victory over Croatia at Euro 2000 and then escaping with a shootout win in the Nations League last year, as well as a 6-0 beatdown in 2018. Fast-forwarding to this summer, La Roja now have even more attacking stars to count on.

While the Croatians have struggled to unearth a new wave of attackers, depth is a trump card for Spain. De la Fuente will have the likes of Joselu, Mikel Oyarzabal, and Ferran Torres to turn to if the game is drifting towards a stalemate.

Spain’s 5-1 warm-up victory against Northern Ireland showcased their attacking quality and their credentials for going all the way at Euro 2024. Captain Alvaro Morata scored in that rout and he should get chances on Saturday, especially if 16-year-old Lamine Yamal and Nico Williams are unleashed from the start in the Spaniards’ favored 4-2-3-1 formation.

Meanwhile, Croatia only netted 13 goals in eight games in their wobbly qualifying campaign, and there’s surely a limit to what they can ask from Modric — who turns 39 in September — in his international tournament swansong.

I see the Rodri-Pedri double act outlasting Modric, Mateo Kovacic, and Marcelo Brozovic to win the critical midfield battleground — and that positions the Spain moneyline as good value in this spot.

Spain vs Croatia same-game parlay (SGP)

Spain moneyline

Spain first-half team total Over 0.5

Both teams to score: Yes

+420 at Betano

While a cagey first half would be no surprise, I’m picking Spain to get on the board before the halftime break. They scored four times in the first 45 minutes in their final warm-up game, and their direct style could catch Croatia napping here.

Josko Gvardiol had a terrific season with Man City but there are some question marks around the rest of this Croatia backline — and whether Zlatko Dalic’s aging midfield can withstand slick Spanish attacks. 

The Croatians are still searching for a reliable striker to lead the team into the next few tournaments, but I’m adding to my SGP with the BTTS — Yes prop, with the expectation that this could turn into an open contest in the second half.

Ante Budimir, Bruno Petkovic, and Andrej Kramaric are all in contention for Croatia’s lone striker role, but the greater threat may come from veterans Modric and Ivan Perisic or Atalanta’s Mario Pasalic. You only have to look at the last World Cup to understand the Croatians can find a moment of magic even when they’re on the back foot for long periods.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Spain vs Croatia odds

Odds courtesy of Betano on 6-13

Spain vs Croatia game info

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