Spain and Italy will seek pole position for Group B of Euro 2024 when these two football powerhouses meet on Thursday.
Spain vanquished Croatia 3-0 to open their campaign with Alvaro Morata once again finding the back of the net. They notched all three goals before halftime and then relied on stout goalkeeping to secure the win.
Now they face off with a familiar foe. Italy have never lost three straight matches to Spain, and are looking for payback after losing consecutive Nations League semi-finals to the Iberian side. They’ll be bolstered by their comeback 2-1 win over Albania after an embarrassing start, and the fact they’ve lost just once to Spain in 10 meetings in the Euros or World Cup.
Find out where my Euro 2024 picks lie in my Spain vs Italy prediction for their Euro 2024 fixture on June 20, 2024.
Spain vs Italy picks, predictions, and betting tips
My best bet:
Both teams to score - Yes (-118 at Betano)
My analysis
Spain’s 3-0 win over Croatia wasn’t as easy or comfortable as the scoreline may indicate. In fact, many La Roja players were likely thanking goalkeeper Unai Simon in the locker room for bailing them out in the second half.
That’s because Croatia registered 1.91 xG after the intermission, outshooting Spain 9-5 in the second half. Simon made three huge saves in the period and five on the day as he denied Croatia even a consolation tally.
Italy's goalkeeper faced no such flurry in his side’s 2-1 win over Albania. In fact, Opta says Gigi Donnarumma faced only one shot on goal the entire match.
Unfortunately for him, it came 23 seconds into proceedings as the Azzurri fell behind to the fastest goal in Euro history. While he wasn’t credited with a save, replays show he did deny what may have been a late equalizer when he blocked a stoppage-time shot off his side.
But when Spain rolls in on Thursday, the PSG keeper will be much more involved. Alvaro Morata’s goal against Croatia put him second among all Spanish goalscorers at the Euros and moved him to third in the competition’s all-time scoring list.
He will be flanked by Nico Williams and the dynamic youngster Lamine Yamal, who created three chances and had six touches in the box vs Croatia. They’ll lead an attack that certainly will generate a higher mark than the 0.50 xG posted by Albania.
But at the other end, Simon’s going to face a higher caliber of attacker as well. No offense to Ante Budimir or Andrej Kramaric, but the Italians will have more dangerous weapons leading their line. Gianluca Scamacca is in solid form and played well despite not scoring against Albania.
Nicolo Barella did find the back of the net and is always a threat from midfield, with goals in consecutive matches for the Azzurri. And both Lorenzo Pellegrini and Federico Chiesa are threats to create goals at any time.
This should be one of the matches of the Euro 2024 group stage, and this tournament has shown that goals are in abundance. Both defenses will be heavily tested, and I expect them both to crack at some point with the attacking talent on display. Look for both teams to score for the fourth straight meeting between these two proud footballing nations.
Spain vs Italy same-game parlay (SGP)
Both teams to score - Yes
Unai Simon 3+ saves
Nicolo Barella 1+ shot
Unai Simon was tested heavily by the Croatian attack, and he came up with five critical saves on the day. He’s faced Italy three times in competitive matches, making nine totals saves and at least two in each match.
Italy has posted at least four shots on target in five of their last six competitive matches, and a total of 12 in their last three meetings with Spain. If Simon is locked in again, three saves here should easily be attainable.
One of the shots he’ll face is likely to come off the boot of Nicolo Barella. When Italy counters, as they’ll likely do here with Spain getting back to possessing more of the ball, he’s often found charging into the box on late runs. But he’s also a threat to shoot from midfield at any time, as he showed with his beautiful strike for the winning goal.
Barella has attempted 11 shots in his last eight starts for Italy, with at least one shot in seven of those outings. He’s scored in consecutive matches and will be involved in the attack at some point once again.
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Spain vs Italy odds
| Spain | Italy | |
|---|---|---|
| +122 | Moneyline | +295 |
| Over 2.5 | Total | Under 2.5 |
| +210 | Draw | +210 |
Odds courtesy of Betano on 6-19
Spain vs Italy game info
| Location: | Arena AufSchalke, Gelsenkirchen, Germany |
| Date: | Thursday, June 20, 2024 |
| Time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Weather: | Perfect playing conditions. |
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