Everton vs Arsenal Picks and Predictions: Home Isn't Sweet for the Toffees

Freefalling Everton face another difficult test on Monday to round out the week in Premier League betting, as they host Arsenal at Goodison Park. 

A horrible stretch was made significantly worse for the Merseyside club midweek, as they were torn apart in the derby against Liverpool. Arsenal, meanwhile, were the latest team to fall victim to late heroics from Cristiano Ronaldo, as the Gunners lost 3-2 at Old Trafford.

Here are our soccer picks and predictions for Everton vs. Arsenal, with kickoff on December 6.

Everton vs Arsenal match odds

Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.

Compare EPL odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Everton vs Arsenal betting tips

• Prediction: Arsenal (+112)
• Prediction: Over 2.5 (-102)
• Best bet: Arsenal (+112)

Predictions made on 12/4/2021 at 3:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Everton vs Arsenal game info

• Location: Goodison Park, Liverpool, England
• Date: Monday, December 6, 2021
• Time: 3:00 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC Sports, DAZN

Everton vs Arsenal betting preview

Weather

Wind and rain are forecast on Merseyside on Monday night, with an 85 percent chance of precipitation and 20 miles per hour winds expected at kickoff. Temperatures are forecast around 45 degrees Fahrenheit.

Injuries

Everton: Salomon Rondon ST (Questionable), Andre Gomes CM (Questionable), Yerry Mina CB (Questionable), Tom Davies CM (Out), Dominic Calvert-Lewin ST (Out).
Arsenal: Sead Kolasinac CB (Out), Granit Xhaka CM (Out).

Everton vs Arsenal predictions

Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.

Side analysis

Injuries have mounted to further complicate Everton's season but at the moment, it's all bad for the club. The Toffees haven't won in the league since late September, against lowly Norwich, and have only taken two points since then — out of a possible 24. 

The attacking threat has been effectively zapped out of the side. Up top, while Dominic Calvert-Lewin remains injured, Richarlison has played in nine of 14 league games but just has two goals, with the Brazilian in the midst of a second straight underwhelming season. Manager Rafa Benitez's loyalty to striker Salomon Rondon has been biting him, as the Venezuelan looks woefully unfit and is yet to score despite playing 10 games. 

The contribution from wingers Andros Townsend and Demari Gray has been considerably muted, with the pair combining to contribute two goals, one assist, and 2.0 xG over the last eight games. 

It hasn't been much better in defense, which is even more cause for concern as Benitez is, famously, a defensive organizer — with his impact typically felt immediately. The Toffees have kept just three clean sheets all season, conceding 17 goals over the previous eight games.

Just as Everton's season has come undone, Arsenal's has come alive. Despite struggles from Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang up top, their midfield three has been superb behind him, with Emile Smith-Rowe starring and doing everything he can to force his way into contention in a crowded position for England. As new signings Aaron Ramsdale, in goal, as well as centerback Ben White and right back Takehiro Tamiyasu have settled, the defense has improved considerably, too.

Though Arsenal were a bit underwhelming midweek against Manchester United, it's becoming increasingly clear they have a strong argument as the league's best team outside the three title contenders. Even if they weren't, they would have no trouble brushing aside a woeful Everton team on Monday.

Prediction: Arsenal (+112)

Over/Under analysis

Between strong early returns going forward and poor defending which has cost them consistently, Everton's games have seen quite a few goals this season. Through 14 league games, there have been eight with three goals or more (with half of those coming from their opponents alone). Even as Everton's attack dimmed, with four goals in their previous six games, four of those matches went Over a 2.5 total as they've conceded 15 in that stretch. 

For Arsenal, early season woes were replaced by a thriving attack and considerable improvement in defense. Just six of their 14 league games have seen three or more total goals but Arsenal's attack has done its part as of late, scoring multiple goals in six of their last nine matches. Since settling on a front four, the Gunners have been among the league's best going forward and are now fourth in shot-creating actions per 90 minutes. 

While Arsenal's attack has improved in recent weeks, throughout the season they've punished shambolic defending like Everton's, scoring three against Aston Villa, two against Leicester City, two against Newcastle, and two against Manchester United.

Arsenal have the quality to push this one Over themselves, and they'll no doubt get the opportunities needed to do so against Everton's defense.

Prediction: Over 2.5 (-102)

Best bet

While we are believers in Arsenal's resurgence and the quality they've shown in defense, midfield, and attack recently, this is more of an indictment of Everton. 

To be getting plus-money on a genuinely good Premier League side against a team in as bad of form as Everton are in is a no-brainer. The Toffees have the third-most losses in the league this season, while Arsenal have the third-most victories. Both sides are in the Bottom 3 in draws, so we know there's often a decisive result when either team is involved.

On form, Everton are the worst team in the Premier League at the moment, below even Newcastle, who only just won their first game of the season on Saturday. They've lost three of four home games since the calendar turned to October (with the fourth being a 0-0 draw) by an aggregate score of 10-3. They'll lose a fourth in five on Monday.

Pick: Arsenal (+112)

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